6 ms·

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lo

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

michrassena 9y ago
In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to be present. For fully automated trucking, I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. These vehicles seem far too easy to hijack, redirect, or delay and steal the cargo. Take out the human factor and long-haul trucks are autonomous warehouses roaming the countryside.
- tynpeddler 9y ago
  Autonomous trucks may actually be a little more secure. The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin and truckers are strongly encouraged to not stop in this zone. Many still do though, either for legitimate reasons, or they're working with the thieves. Automated trucking will probably fix this problem. You can have automated trucks moving from secured site to secured site without worrying about exceeding a truckers 11 hour drive limit.
  - mxuribe 9y ago
    They can also lock down the cargo in such a way that it sort of becomes a sort of totally-sealed (automated) roving container. Much like any security, there would be limits into how cheap they can make the container still relatively secure of course (those hijackers are pretty wily and clever!)...but that doesn't seem to be such a logistical challenge in my mind.
  - ranit 9y ago
    > The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin ... Now. The GP point is, if in future thieves find ways to explore truck software and redirect the trucks then current statistics will change.
    - tyingq 9y ago
      Aside from thieves, there's likely to be some mischief from the truckers whose jobs were taken away, or soon will be. They are already a group that's very tight, with lots of communication methods (CB, forums, newsletters, etc). And pretty good knowledge on how to disable/vandalize a semi truck. I'd also expect more "insider" help than usual. Probably many truckers will be transitioned to lower paying roles and will be bitter.
    - michrassena 9y ago
      I don't think exploiting software, in the usual sense of the term, is even necessary. Just box the truck in somehow when it's off the grid and can't phone home. There's no way the designers will build in the capability to ram through a barricade, will they? My point, which I stated poorly, is that automated trucking is a whole new class of problems from a security standpoint. I'm leaving some scenarios out deliberately. I haven't even given much thought to the problem, but I hope someone does.
      - spaced-out 9y ago
        What do you think a human driver would do if they were faced with a barricade? They'll hand over the keys. Act quickly and they probably won't even have the chance to call the cops before you take their phone. An automated truck will lock itself down, and start taking high def video. Plus, if it has a satellite hook-up, it can contact the police even from outside of cellphone range.
        KekDemaga 9y ago
        Laws would have to change with a person in the cab you are talking about Grand Theft, Kidnapping, and Robbery. With an AI it's just Grand Theft meaning you'd spend much less time in prison.
- nkrisc 9y ago
  I could see the last mile problem for trucking being solved by depots on the outskirts of cities where the automated trucks arrive, and human drivers commute and drive the trucks from the depot to their final destinations in the city. I don't know about the economics of it, but it could potentially be beneficial to the health of the human drivers as they wouldn't need to be making long-haul trips, but instead navigating more, but shorter, trips into cities. If this scenario increased the volume of long-haul trips (through automation), it could create demand for more drivers for the last mile trips.
- criddell 9y ago
  > I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. I bet they have. Especially insurers.
  - semi-extrinsic 9y ago
    Insurers, in stark contrast to VC funded startups, are very conservative. I'm confident they'll rather not spend time and money now exploring something that's not going to be reality for at least half a decade, maybe ever.
    - criddell 9y ago
      I agree, they are among the most conservative. But I think that's why they are studying it. Insurance companies hate being surprised. Self-driving vehicles will going to prevent a lot of collisions which will in turn drive premiums way, way down. The need to insure unattended shipments is one mitigating factor that I bet they are thinking about.
  - michrassena 9y ago
    I would hope so. And maybe the cost of insurance is what keeps human-driven trucking going for awhile longer.
  - mschuster91 9y ago
    > I bet they have. Especially insurers. Externalize the cost: call the cops when the truck surveillance detects something and have them clean up the mess.
    - criddell 9y ago
      I think I like that better than the transport companies having private police forces.
maxxxxx 9y ago
Truckers are mainly small businesses so they probably have no lobby. The bigger trucking companies that employ these self-employed truckers will happily switch to automatic trucks. They also have the political clout. Same for farmers. The real small family farmers have no political power. It's the big farms that get laws made for them.
- johnward 9y ago
  What about the teamsters union?
  - maxxxxx 9y ago
    Are all truckers in that union? I thought a lot of truckers are small businesses that contract with large ones.
    - KGIII 9y ago
      Owner/operators can join the teamsters.
- randomdata 9y ago
  As a small farmer, the government requires that we pay into an industry lobby group each year. All farmers, that is, not just small ones. But, as a small farmer, I already see how unaffordable automation is. Tractors that are basically self-driving have been commercially available for decades, but it is difficult to pencil out unless you have a lot of acres to spread the costs across. I feel that the same will be true for self-driving trucks. The huge fleets will adopt it immediately, but small guys like me who only have to haul grain a few weeks of the year, it seems more cost effective to just spend some time in the seat. Time will tell, but history tends to be a good indicator. I don't see truckers going away any time soon.
protomyth 9y ago
Given that truck driver is the most popular job in the majority of US States, I get the feeling its going to go beyond having a political lobby. You put that many people out of work in one event and that's going to wreck havoc. Political lobbies are not the only way to exert power.
- dredmorbius 9y ago
  Truck driving is not the largest employment by major NAICS job classification. Instead you'll find that the ranking puts office & administrative, sales, and food services ahead of all transport. The final column is per-mille, not per-cent, contribution. 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 22026080 156.881 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations 14536530 103.537 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 12981720 92.462 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 9731790 69.315 51-0000 Production Occupations 9105650 64.855 25-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 8636430 61.513 29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 8318500 59.249 47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations 5585420 39.782 49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 5456640 38.865 39-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations 4514960 32.158 37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 4426090 31.525 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 4165140 29.666 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations 4043480 28.800 33-0000 Protective Service Occupations 3386360 24.119 17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 2499050 17.799 21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations 2019250 14.382 27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 1902970 13.554 19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 1152840 8.211 23-0000 Legal Occupations 1075520 7.660 45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 463640 3.302 Source: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm Edit: I'm perplexed by the downvotes. Care to explain yourself?

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

michrassena 9y ago

In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to be present. For fully automated trucking, I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. These vehicles seem far too easy to hijack, redirect, or delay and steal the cargo. Take out the human factor and long-haul trucks are autonomous warehouses roaming the countryside.

tynpeddler 9y ago
Autonomous trucks may actually be a little more secure. The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin and truckers are strongly encouraged to not stop in this zone. Many still do though, either for legitimate reasons, or they're working with the thieves. Automated trucking will probably fix this problem. You can have automated trucks moving from secured site to secured site without worrying about exceeding a truckers 11 hour drive limit.
- mxuribe 9y ago
  They can also lock down the cargo in such a way that it sort of becomes a sort of totally-sealed (automated) roving container. Much like any security, there would be limits into how cheap they can make the container still relatively secure of course (those hijackers are pretty wily and clever!)...but that doesn't seem to be such a logistical challenge in my mind.
- ranit 9y ago
  > The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin ... Now. The GP point is, if in future thieves find ways to explore truck software and redirect the trucks then current statistics will change.
  - tyingq 9y ago
    Aside from thieves, there's likely to be some mischief from the truckers whose jobs were taken away, or soon will be. They are already a group that's very tight, with lots of communication methods (CB, forums, newsletters, etc). And pretty good knowledge on how to disable/vandalize a semi truck. I'd also expect more "insider" help than usual. Probably many truckers will be transitioned to lower paying roles and will be bitter.
  - michrassena 9y ago
    I don't think exploiting software, in the usual sense of the term, is even necessary. Just box the truck in somehow when it's off the grid and can't phone home. There's no way the designers will build in the capability to ram through a barricade, will they? My point, which I stated poorly, is that automated trucking is a whole new class of problems from a security standpoint. I'm leaving some scenarios out deliberately. I haven't even given much thought to the problem, but I hope someone does.
    - spaced-out 9y ago
      What do you think a human driver would do if they were faced with a barricade? They'll hand over the keys. Act quickly and they probably won't even have the chance to call the cops before you take their phone. An automated truck will lock itself down, and start taking high def video. Plus, if it has a satellite hook-up, it can contact the police even from outside of cellphone range.
      - KekDemaga 9y ago
        Laws would have to change with a person in the cab you are talking about Grand Theft, Kidnapping, and Robbery. With an AI it's just Grand Theft meaning you'd spend much less time in prison.
nkrisc 9y ago
I could see the last mile problem for trucking being solved by depots on the outskirts of cities where the automated trucks arrive, and human drivers commute and drive the trucks from the depot to their final destinations in the city. I don't know about the economics of it, but it could potentially be beneficial to the health of the human drivers as they wouldn't need to be making long-haul trips, but instead navigating more, but shorter, trips into cities. If this scenario increased the volume of long-haul trips (through automation), it could create demand for more drivers for the last mile trips.
criddell 9y ago
> I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. I bet they have. Especially insurers.
- semi-extrinsic 9y ago
  Insurers, in stark contrast to VC funded startups, are very conservative. I'm confident they'll rather not spend time and money now exploring something that's not going to be reality for at least half a decade, maybe ever.
  - criddell 9y ago
    I agree, they are among the most conservative. But I think that's why they are studying it. Insurance companies hate being surprised. Self-driving vehicles will going to prevent a lot of collisions which will in turn drive premiums way, way down. The need to insure unattended shipments is one mitigating factor that I bet they are thinking about.
- michrassena 9y ago
  I would hope so. And maybe the cost of insurance is what keeps human-driven trucking going for awhile longer.
- mschuster91 9y ago
  > I bet they have. Especially insurers. Externalize the cost: call the cops when the truck surveillance detects something and have them clean up the mess.
  - criddell 9y ago
    I think I like that better than the transport companies having private police forces.

maxxxxx 9y ago

Truckers are mainly small businesses so they probably have no lobby. The bigger trucking companies that employ these self-employed truckers will happily switch to automatic trucks. They also have the political clout. Same for farmers. The real small family farmers have no political power. It's the big farms that get laws made for them.

johnward 9y ago
What about the teamsters union?
- maxxxxx 9y ago
  Are all truckers in that union? I thought a lot of truckers are small businesses that contract with large ones.
  - KGIII 9y ago
    Owner/operators can join the teamsters.
randomdata 9y ago
As a small farmer, the government requires that we pay into an industry lobby group each year. All farmers, that is, not just small ones. But, as a small farmer, I already see how unaffordable automation is. Tractors that are basically self-driving have been commercially available for decades, but it is difficult to pencil out unless you have a lot of acres to spread the costs across. I feel that the same will be true for self-driving trucks. The huge fleets will adopt it immediately, but small guys like me who only have to haul grain a few weeks of the year, it seems more cost effective to just spend some time in the seat. Time will tell, but history tends to be a good indicator. I don't see truckers going away any time soon.

protomyth 9y ago

Given that truck driver is the most popular job in the majority of US States, I get the feeling its going to go beyond having a political lobby. You put that many people out of work in one event and that's going to wreck havoc. Political lobbies are not the only way to exert power.

dredmorbius 9y ago
Truck driving is not the largest employment by major NAICS job classification. Instead you'll find that the ranking puts office & administrative, sales, and food services ahead of all transport. The final column is per-mille, not per-cent, contribution. 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 22026080 156.881 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations 14536530 103.537 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 12981720 92.462 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 9731790 69.315 51-0000 Production Occupations 9105650 64.855 25-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 8636430 61.513 29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 8318500 59.249 47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations 5585420 39.782 49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 5456640 38.865 39-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations 4514960 32.158 37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 4426090 31.525 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 4165140 29.666 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations 4043480 28.800 33-0000 Protective Service Occupations 3386360 24.119 17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 2499050 17.799 21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations 2019250 14.382 27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 1902970 13.554 19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 1152840 8.211 23-0000 Legal Occupations 1075520 7.660 45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 463640 3.302 Source: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm Edit: I'm perplexed by the downvotes. Care to explain yourself?