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China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched

China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

adamnemecek 9y ago
> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict. I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.
- vadman 9y ago
  The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2000&LMM=12&LYY=2016&WMO=47058&CONT=asie&REGION=0026&LAND=KR&ART=WDR&R=0&NOREGION=0&LEVEL=162&LANG=en&MOD=tab http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2... This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.
  - mercer 9y ago
    That's something I hadn't considered, but it strikes me as the most reasonable approach, and (I might be entirely off on this one!) one befitting a culture that really understands the concept of honor/'saving face'.
  - sparkzilla 9y ago
    Expect the nukes to fall when the north wind doth blow
    - vadman 9y ago
      To carry the fallout onto South Korea, and the US militry stationed there? Brilliant!
      - sparkzilla 9y ago
        I will report this back to the Dear Leader, he will find your plan very interesting!
MBCook 9y ago
Not just a war, a massive humanitarian crisis. If the NK government were to disappear how many needy people would flood over their border and cause massive resource issues? It’s a weird situation where basically everyone hates NK (I imagine China would be more happy if that was just more of their normal territory) but everyone is terrified of what happens when the NK State dissolves. SK wants to reunite but that would have to be done slowly to avoid the same issues China is afraid of (ignoring any ‘diehards’ causing terrorism or just unrest).
- devdoomari 9y ago
  'humanitarian crisis' - isn't NK already the very example of 'humanitarian crisis'? just that NK gov. is good at 'containing' its people & let then starve...
  - stordoff 9y ago
    It's currently a humanitarian crisis that China don't have to (and to a large extent can't) deal with.
    - MBCook 9y ago
      Right. It’s a disaster but it’s contained. As soon as the government can’t enforce it’s borders (there are some leaks now but it’s not open) then it’s going to become a huge issue in China and SK and anywhere else people can get to. Of course China and SK could arm up at the borders and start shooting people but... that’s not really an improvement is it.
Grazester 9y ago
Conflict in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian crisis for China and South Korea to deal with. I dont think either would want to deal with that
jcranberry 9y ago
They want peace, but they also don't want a US military base on their borders. They're clearly trying to balance the two.

adamnemecek 9y ago

> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict. I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.

vadman 9y ago
The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2000&LMM=12&LYY=2016&WMO=47058&CONT=asie&REGION=0026&LAND=KR&ART=WDR&R=0&NOREGION=0&LEVEL=162&LANG=en&MOD=tab http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2... This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.
- mercer 9y ago
  That's something I hadn't considered, but it strikes me as the most reasonable approach, and (I might be entirely off on this one!) one befitting a culture that really understands the concept of honor/'saving face'.
- sparkzilla 9y ago
  Expect the nukes to fall when the north wind doth blow
  - vadman 9y ago
    To carry the fallout onto South Korea, and the US militry stationed there? Brilliant!
    - sparkzilla 9y ago
      I will report this back to the Dear Leader, he will find your plan very interesting!

MBCook 9y ago

Not just a war, a massive humanitarian crisis. If the NK government were to disappear how many needy people would flood over their border and cause massive resource issues? It’s a weird situation where basically everyone hates NK (I imagine China would be more happy if that was just more of their normal territory) but everyone is terrified of what happens when the NK State dissolves. SK wants to reunite but that would have to be done slowly to avoid the same issues China is afraid of (ignoring any ‘diehards’ causing terrorism or just unrest).

devdoomari 9y ago
'humanitarian crisis' - isn't NK already the very example of 'humanitarian crisis'? just that NK gov. is good at 'containing' its people & let then starve...
- stordoff 9y ago
  It's currently a humanitarian crisis that China don't have to (and to a large extent can't) deal with.
  - MBCook 9y ago
    Right. It’s a disaster but it’s contained. As soon as the government can’t enforce it’s borders (there are some leaks now but it’s not open) then it’s going to become a huge issue in China and SK and anywhere else people can get to. Of course China and SK could arm up at the borders and start shooting people but... that’s not really an improvement is it.

Grazester 9y ago

Conflict in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian crisis for China and South Korea to deal with. I dont think either would want to deal with that

jcranberry 9y ago

They want peace, but they also don't want a US military base on their borders. They're clearly trying to balance the two.