7 ms·

RIP bitcoin. Current valuation is $4142.99 higher than it should be.. Im thinking we will get there within a couple of years. $1-2 seems about right per 1 BTC.

by readhn 9y ago

chrisco255 9y ago
Yeah...$20 million market cap seems reasonable... smh...
- lolsal 9y ago
  What is "smh"?
  - ringaroundthetx 9y ago
    "shake my head"
    - lolsal 9y ago
      Thank you.
  - StavrosK 9y ago
    "Shaking my head".
- readhn 9y ago
  There is utility in BTC thats why im putting 1-2$ value on it. 4000$ + per one BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators". There is nothing new under the sun. Go back to the tulips and many booms and busts after. Its happening with BTC now. And just like all the others it will end the same.
  - shlant 9y ago
    the fact that you tout the "tulip mania" example shows that Bitcoin and markets are not the only things you know little about: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/#cZtyAgAvv2FlrssY.99?no-ist http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-t... > BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators" > Its happening with BTC now Join the long line of people that have been saying this for almost 5 years and have been so soooooooooo wrong
    - danielahn 9y ago
      Did you read the article you posted? Actual tulip mania, as described in the article, is much more similar to what is happening in bitcoin than the mythologized tulip mania. Frantic speculation in a narrow space with the market eventually crashing when speculative buyers are no longer willing to bid up?
      - takeda 9y ago
        What was going for tulips is that they had an "expiration date" bitcoin will probably take longer because there's no such thing. To me bitcoin lost its appeal after transaction fees became high. The value is ok, since you can still use fractions of it, but current transaction fees and time to wait for confirmation makes it unsuitable for daily use. So in my mind bitcoin already failed what it supposed to provide.
    - richmarr 9y ago
      > Join the long line of people that have been saying this for almost 5 years and have been so soooooooooo wrong You're overstating your case. They just haven't been proven right. In such a young, poorly understood, and speculative, environment it seems reasonable to suspect a bubble. 5 years doesn't prove or disprove anything.
  - lloyd-christmas 9y ago
    > There is nothing new under the sun. Go back to the tulips and many booms and busts after. Predicting bubbles is nothing new under the sun. I remember 10 years ago when craft beer was a bubble. I also remember 5 years ago when a buddy of mine in finance told me "tech is a bubble because there are too many languages". Everyone is an expert, and everyone can say "tulip" as if it's meaningful.
    - dragandj 9y ago
      Craft beer is tasty, many people love it and regularly buy it to consume it; not to store it in the cellar with the hope that one bottle will cost $50000 in 3 years. That's real business that has real profits.
  - elif 9y ago
    Regarding tulip mania: The 1841 account is based upon a 1797 account which was sourced from "three anonymous pamphlets published in 1637 with an anti-speculative agenda" contemporary historians describe as "pieces of propaganda and a prodigious amount of plagiarism" A historically honest account characterizes tulip mania as "no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market." So, assuming you are making a parallel between bitcoin and the fictional "propaganda" narrative of tulip mania: that comparison falls apart quickly, since (1) bulbs have an exponential growth rate. (2) the 3 year crash did not feature boom + bust cycles with steadily increasing bottoms. (3) Bulbs are not permanent or fungible. (4) short selling bulbs was illegal. (5) bitcoin is not subject to a decree by dutch parliament that futures contracts must be options with the buyer allowed to back out for a 3.5% fee. The way that bitcoin mirrors tulip mania is that it is subject to "propaganda" with an "anti-speculative agenda", and that both took place during a rapid increase in the fiat money supply.
  - clarkmoody 9y ago
    The first time I saw someone refer to Bitcoin as tulips was in 2011 when I started in the space. I'm sure others labeled it as such as soon as it started trading in 2010 at $0.06.
    - readhn 9y ago
      a few people have been called crazy for pointing out bubbles... prematurely. it does not change the fact that its still a bubble. as i said getting the timing right is pretty much impossible. time and market will be the ultimate judge ;)
      - clarkmoody 9y ago
        Do you think that the entire space "is a bubble" as in, "cryptocurrency itself will go away one day." Or did you mean "is in a bubble" as in, "the price will drop significantly someday."
        readhn 9y ago
        cryptocurrency clearly has utility. it may stay as it is or most likely undergo some changes and stay in a different format. The issue is valuation - yes, it is bubble IMHO thats going to pop. Timing of that "pop" is a million dollar question.
elif 9y ago
So, the fact that people are over-paying for bitcoin by 2-3x its market price suggests to you that demand will rapidly decrease? can you please connect that with logic?
drcode 9y ago
As someone involved in this stuff since 2011, the constant "death of Bitcoin" predictions are sooooo tedious.
- readhn 9y ago
  getting the timing right is pretty much next to impossible. this does not change the fact that it will ultimately end that way.
  - nrhk 9y ago
    What about the cryptomarket as a whole, 1-2$ total down from 100-200 billion?
  - shlant 9y ago
    > getting the timing right is pretty much next to impossible. this does not change the fact that it will ultimately end that way The argument that anything ends at some point is fruitless. Not sure how you are separating BTC out from anything else here
  - la_oveja 9y ago
    Please, can you guess me the numbers of the EuroMillions lotto?
  - ericb 9y ago
    Things that enable previously impossible use-cases don't just go away.
    - sova 9y ago
      Yeah, it's a pity that more technocrats don't actually understand how bitcoin works, why it is innovative, and how supply and demand control prices.
- gst 9y ago
  Bitcoin only died 171 times so far: https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/ https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/. The first time was in December 2010 when it was priced at $0.23.
wyldfire 9y ago
The $1 valuation strikes me as way more arbitrary than $4k. What features mean that it should be near USD parity? It should either be above or below the USD based on >>insert valuation technique here<<. But why should it land near $1-2? Why shouldn't it be $0.003 or $30.00? If it should somehow land on parity with fiat currency then maybe it should be a weighted mean of the global currencies but $1-2 seems incredibly arbitrary.
andrewla 9y ago
You're in luck! Blocks of 10,000 Satoshis are currently trading at a little over $0.41; they haven't even reached dollar parity yet.

RIP bitcoin. Current valuation is $4142.99 higher than it should be.. Im thinking we will get there within a couple of years. $1-2 seems about right per 1 BTC.

by readhn 9y ago

RIP bitcoin. Current valuation is $4142.99 higher than it should be.. Im thinking we will get there within a couple of years. $1-2 seems about right per 1 BTC.

chrisco255 9y ago

Yeah...$20 million market cap seems reasonable... smh...

lolsal 9y ago
What is "smh"?
- ringaroundthetx 9y ago
  "shake my head"
  - lolsal 9y ago
    Thank you.
- StavrosK 9y ago
  "Shaking my head".
readhn 9y ago
There is utility in BTC thats why im putting 1-2$ value on it. 4000$ + per one BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators". There is nothing new under the sun. Go back to the tulips and many booms and busts after. Its happening with BTC now. And just like all the others it will end the same.
- shlant 9y ago
  the fact that you tout the "tulip mania" example shows that Bitcoin and markets are not the only things you know little about: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/#cZtyAgAvv2FlrssY.99?no-ist http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-t... > BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators" > Its happening with BTC now Join the long line of people that have been saying this for almost 5 years and have been so soooooooooo wrong
  - danielahn 9y ago
    Did you read the article you posted? Actual tulip mania, as described in the article, is much more similar to what is happening in bitcoin than the mythologized tulip mania. Frantic speculation in a narrow space with the market eventually crashing when speculative buyers are no longer willing to bid up?
    - takeda 9y ago
      What was going for tulips is that they had an "expiration date" bitcoin will probably take longer because there's no such thing. To me bitcoin lost its appeal after transaction fees became high. The value is ok, since you can still use fractions of it, but current transaction fees and time to wait for confirmation makes it unsuitable for daily use. So in my mind bitcoin already failed what it supposed to provide.
  - richmarr 9y ago
    > Join the long line of people that have been saying this for almost 5 years and have been so soooooooooo wrong You're overstating your case. They just haven't been proven right. In such a young, poorly understood, and speculative, environment it seems reasonable to suspect a bubble. 5 years doesn't prove or disprove anything.
- lloyd-christmas 9y ago
  > There is nothing new under the sun. Go back to the tulips and many booms and busts after. Predicting bubbles is nothing new under the sun. I remember 10 years ago when craft beer was a bubble. I also remember 5 years ago when a buddy of mine in finance told me "tech is a bubble because there are too many languages". Everyone is an expert, and everyone can say "tulip" as if it's meaningful.
  - dragandj 9y ago
    Craft beer is tasty, many people love it and regularly buy it to consume it; not to store it in the cellar with the hope that one bottle will cost $50000 in 3 years. That's real business that has real profits.
- elif 9y ago
  Regarding tulip mania: The 1841 account is based upon a 1797 account which was sourced from "three anonymous pamphlets published in 1637 with an anti-speculative agenda" contemporary historians describe as "pieces of propaganda and a prodigious amount of plagiarism" A historically honest account characterizes tulip mania as "no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market." So, assuming you are making a parallel between bitcoin and the fictional "propaganda" narrative of tulip mania: that comparison falls apart quickly, since (1) bulbs have an exponential growth rate. (2) the 3 year crash did not feature boom + bust cycles with steadily increasing bottoms. (3) Bulbs are not permanent or fungible. (4) short selling bulbs was illegal. (5) bitcoin is not subject to a decree by dutch parliament that futures contracts must be options with the buyer allowed to back out for a 3.5% fee. The way that bitcoin mirrors tulip mania is that it is subject to "propaganda" with an "anti-speculative agenda", and that both took place during a rapid increase in the fiat money supply.
- clarkmoody 9y ago
  The first time I saw someone refer to Bitcoin as tulips was in 2011 when I started in the space. I'm sure others labeled it as such as soon as it started trading in 2010 at $0.06.
  - readhn 9y ago
    a few people have been called crazy for pointing out bubbles... prematurely. it does not change the fact that its still a bubble. as i said getting the timing right is pretty much impossible. time and market will be the ultimate judge ;)
    - clarkmoody 9y ago
      Do you think that the entire space "is a bubble" as in, "cryptocurrency itself will go away one day." Or did you mean "is in a bubble" as in, "the price will drop significantly someday."
      - readhn 9y ago
        cryptocurrency clearly has utility. it may stay as it is or most likely undergo some changes and stay in a different format. The issue is valuation - yes, it is bubble IMHO thats going to pop. Timing of that "pop" is a million dollar question.

elif 9y ago

So, the fact that people are over-paying for bitcoin by 2-3x its market price suggests to you that demand will rapidly decrease? can you please connect that with logic?

drcode 9y ago

As someone involved in this stuff since 2011, the constant "death of Bitcoin" predictions are sooooo tedious.

readhn 9y ago
getting the timing right is pretty much next to impossible. this does not change the fact that it will ultimately end that way.
- nrhk 9y ago
  What about the cryptomarket as a whole, 1-2$ total down from 100-200 billion?
- shlant 9y ago
  > getting the timing right is pretty much next to impossible. this does not change the fact that it will ultimately end that way The argument that anything ends at some point is fruitless. Not sure how you are separating BTC out from anything else here
- la_oveja 9y ago
  Please, can you guess me the numbers of the EuroMillions lotto?
- ericb 9y ago
  Things that enable previously impossible use-cases don't just go away.
  - sova 9y ago
    Yeah, it's a pity that more technocrats don't actually understand how bitcoin works, why it is innovative, and how supply and demand control prices.
gst 9y ago
Bitcoin only died 171 times so far: https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/ https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/. The first time was in December 2010 when it was priced at $0.23.

wyldfire 9y ago

The $1 valuation strikes me as way more arbitrary than $4k. What features mean that it should be near USD parity? It should either be above or below the USD based on >>insert valuation technique here<<. But why should it land near $1-2? Why shouldn't it be $0.003 or $30.00? If it should somehow land on parity with fiat currency then maybe it should be a weighted mean of the global currencies but $1-2 seems incredibly arbitrary.

andrewla 9y ago

You're in luck! Blocks of 10,000 Satoshis are currently trading at a little over $0.41; they haven't even reached dollar parity yet.