10 ms·

China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

145 points by sagitariusrex 9y ago

Veelox 9y ago
Question, will this have a noticeable impact on the N.K. economy or is it more of an inconvenience?
- bgun 9y ago
  I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.
  - adanto6840 9y ago
    This is borderline off-topic, maybe a bit naive even, but I can't help but ask as I'm genuinely curious and don't know. What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Is there an upper class of non-relatives and, if so, via what means -- government ties (business or personal)? What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated, and perhaps that's my internet adoration speaking -- but is there a class of wealth in NK, what does it look like, how does it come to be? And I'm honestly curious: if there is a wealthy class, what do they do for fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes -- and how will this impact that?
    - no1youknowz 9y ago
      I was watching a portion of Michael Malice with Joe Rogan[0]. Michael wrote "Dear Reader: The Unauthorized Autobiography of Kim Jong Il". He actually mentions the upper class in NK. It's over 2 and a half hours long, but I like Rogan's interviews they go by pretty fast. [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE
    - equalunique 9y ago
      >What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Suki Kim's “Without You, There Is No Us” (2014) offers a perspective from the time she spent there. >What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated They are mostly isolated to Pyongyang where they live bureaucratic lifestyles. >what do they do for fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes Not much. They basically are confined to the city. The make a comfortable living and spend their whole lives trying to please KJU. >how will this impact that? If the economic impact is extensive, then it would inhibit their ability to support the regime, and that would hurt morale all around Pyongyang.
    - rasz 9y ago
      In East Bloc under Russian occupation the privileged class (party officials, high ranking bureaucrats, top of military command, security service/interior ministry, government run company directors etc) had access to special chain of shops full of western goods with special prices, additionally they were rewarded with cars/flats/homes/summer cabins at substantial discounts, automatically skipped all queues/lists/quotas, used special government owned hospitals/hotels/resorts for free, not to mention had get out of jail unless you murder someone important card, the list goes on and on.
- DarronWyke 9y ago
  Yes. China is NK's #1 trading partner.
- topspin 9y ago
  I think it will. The regime gets much of the hard currency it needs to run the 'gift economy' from foreign operations. These companies also form an excellent mechanism to maintain control. Many of them are labor providers; young NK men are conscripted to do logging in Siberia, gold mining in China and other such work. Their wages are sent back to Room 39 and any accumulation of despondent young men is eliminated.
- astrodust 9y ago
  Will it impact their meth production or counterfeit money production in any meaningful way? It's quite an operation they've got going.
infowarrior 9y ago
This is just smoke and mirrors. China needs NK as a communist buffer and as a equalizer against Japan and South Korea(regional competitors).Without China’s covert and overt help NK would not have gotten to where it is now. Chinese play both sides.
markwaldron 9y ago
Related BBC article with more information: www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41431057
- athenot 9y ago
  Thanks, this has a bit more substance to it than the original link.
xir78 9y ago
It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...
- MBCook 9y ago
  In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be able to get a good guess.
  - ihsw2 9y ago
    War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the first 30 minutes of fireworks starting. If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory nonetheless.
    - dingaling 9y ago
      Most North Korean artillery can't reach beyond the northern suburbs of Seoul. It would cause mass casualties but by no means would the metropolis be 'obliterated'. There certainly wouldn't be 20 million dead unless everyone within the Greater Seoul area rushed north and threw themselves into the beaten-zone. Assuming, of course, that the artillery troops follow their orders to fire.
      - pdelbarba 9y ago
        I have a hard time believing that the artillery would ever get the chance. There's maybe ten square miles where they could place artillery to successfully bombard Seoul. The entire area could easily be destroyed or remotely turned into a minefield by a cruise missile salvo or judicious application of artillery fire from a handful of batteries. I can't imagine there aren't plans in place to handle this concern very rapidly should tensions rise to that point. Even assuming that there isn't a concentrated effort to destroy these emplacements quickly, it seems the amount of damage they could cause would be fairly limited by operational constraints[1] [1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345?page=2 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-...
cromwellian 9y ago
Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this is mostly for show to comply on paper with UN resolutions.
- adamnemecek 9y ago
  I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.
  - athenot 9y ago
    China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
    - adamnemecek 9y ago
      > At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict. I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.
      - vadman 9y ago
        The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2000&LMM=12&LYY=2016&WMO=47058&CONT=asie&REGION=0026&LAND=KR&ART=WDR&R=0&NOREGION=0&LEVEL=162&LANG=en&MOD=tab http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2... This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.
gypsy_boots 9y ago
This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.
- zitterbewegung 9y ago
  If we pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something big to save face. If we don't pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something be to get attention again.
- thevardanian 9y ago
  Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their development of nuclear arms about? NK is a signatory of the NPT. They broke their promise. They've broken their promise multiple times. What they're looking for isn't a resolution to their situation, if anything they want to prolong it as long as possible. What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression". Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.
  - Clubber 9y ago
    >Perhaps China wants to annex NK. This makes sense. NK is valuable to China as a buffer from Western countries. I'm surprised by this announcement simply because from that strategic perspective, it hurts China. If they plan on annexing, that makes more sense. If they do, I'm sure we won't do much to stop them. We'll complain (us Westerners) but when the rubber meets the road, China is a better holder of that territory. Our only concern will be annexation of SK by China after NK, but I find that unlikely within the next 20 years.
marcoperaza 9y ago
I won't believe that China is actually serious about reining in North Korea until they stop all imports from North Korea.
agumonkey 9y ago
Not long ago I was shown this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc Interview of 2 ex-NorthKorean. It's informative (not much pathos or sensationalism even considering the context)
devdoomari 9y ago
I've been wary about the Chinese gov's honesty after the economic reparations after THAAD deployment in Korea. (NK made nukes, so US deployed THAAD to defend against NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon') Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even though it knows those people won't end well. But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be a start for a morally better China, a real Big Man country.
- sangnoir 9y ago
  > NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon' This "defense-only" weapon upsets the decade-old nuclear balance of M.A.D. because the THAAD radar is sensitivity and location weaken China's nuclear retaliatory ability.
  - devdoomari 9y ago
    then the Chinese gov. should have forced NK to give up its nukes in the first place. It can, but didn't, so US and Korea have the reason to deploy THAAD. Chinese gov. should explain why it let NK have nukes before blaming 'power balance'
JustSomeNobody 9y ago
Most of his behavior is junk behavior and can be ignored. Obviously, if he does something harmful, that should not be ignored, but most everything else can and should be. Give him no response that he can use to put in front of his people; Nothing he can use to spin to show how powerful he is. Ignore it. Take the control away from him. But always keep an eye out for him doing something even remotely good and praise him for that. Send over food or whatever else his country may need. Reward the behavior you want to see. Ignore the behavior you don't.
longcheng 9y ago
Historically Korea had been a loyal vassal state of China for thousands of year. China had defended Korea against various barbarians from Mongolia plateau, Japan(multiple times) and America more recently. The reason NK still exists is not USA's mercy or NK's nuke, it's because it's neighboring with China & Russia. Same thing applies to Vietnam.

145 points by sagitariusrex 9y ago

Veelox 9y ago

Question, will this have a noticeable impact on the N.K. economy or is it more of an inconvenience?

bgun 9y ago
I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.
- adanto6840 9y ago
  This is borderline off-topic, maybe a bit naive even, but I can't help but ask as I'm genuinely curious and don't know. What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Is there an upper class of non-relatives and, if so, via what means -- government ties (business or personal)? What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated, and perhaps that's my internet adoration speaking -- but is there a class of wealth in NK, what does it look like, how does it come to be? And I'm honestly curious: if there is a wealthy class, what do they do for fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes -- and how will this impact that?
  - no1youknowz 9y ago
    I was watching a portion of Michael Malice with Joe Rogan[0]. Michael wrote "Dear Reader: The Unauthorized Autobiography of Kim Jong Il". He actually mentions the upper class in NK. It's over 2 and a half hours long, but I like Rogan's interviews they go by pretty fast. [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE
  - equalunique 9y ago
    >What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Suki Kim's “Without You, There Is No Us” (2014) offers a perspective from the time she spent there. >What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated They are mostly isolated to Pyongyang where they live bureaucratic lifestyles. >what do they do for fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes Not much. They basically are confined to the city. The make a comfortable living and spend their whole lives trying to please KJU. >how will this impact that? If the economic impact is extensive, then it would inhibit their ability to support the regime, and that would hurt morale all around Pyongyang.
  - rasz 9y ago
    In East Bloc under Russian occupation the privileged class (party officials, high ranking bureaucrats, top of military command, security service/interior ministry, government run company directors etc) had access to special chain of shops full of western goods with special prices, additionally they were rewarded with cars/flats/homes/summer cabins at substantial discounts, automatically skipped all queues/lists/quotas, used special government owned hospitals/hotels/resorts for free, not to mention had get out of jail unless you murder someone important card, the list goes on and on.
DarronWyke 9y ago
Yes. China is NK's #1 trading partner.
topspin 9y ago
I think it will. The regime gets much of the hard currency it needs to run the 'gift economy' from foreign operations. These companies also form an excellent mechanism to maintain control. Many of them are labor providers; young NK men are conscripted to do logging in Siberia, gold mining in China and other such work. Their wages are sent back to Room 39 and any accumulation of despondent young men is eliminated.
astrodust 9y ago
Will it impact their meth production or counterfeit money production in any meaningful way? It's quite an operation they've got going.

infowarrior 9y ago

This is just smoke and mirrors. China needs NK as a communist buffer and as a equalizer against Japan and South Korea(regional competitors).Without China’s covert and overt help NK would not have gotten to where it is now. Chinese play both sides.

markwaldron 9y ago

Related BBC article with more information: www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41431057

athenot 9y ago
Thanks, this has a bit more substance to it than the original link.

xir78 9y ago

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

MBCook 9y ago
In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be able to get a good guess.
- ihsw2 9y ago
  War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the first 30 minutes of fireworks starting. If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory nonetheless.
  - dingaling 9y ago
    Most North Korean artillery can't reach beyond the northern suburbs of Seoul. It would cause mass casualties but by no means would the metropolis be 'obliterated'. There certainly wouldn't be 20 million dead unless everyone within the Greater Seoul area rushed north and threw themselves into the beaten-zone. Assuming, of course, that the artillery troops follow their orders to fire.
    - pdelbarba 9y ago
      I have a hard time believing that the artillery would ever get the chance. There's maybe ten square miles where they could place artillery to successfully bombard Seoul. The entire area could easily be destroyed or remotely turned into a minefield by a cruise missile salvo or judicious application of artillery fire from a handful of batteries. I can't imagine there aren't plans in place to handle this concern very rapidly should tensions rise to that point. Even assuming that there isn't a concentrated effort to destroy these emplacements quickly, it seems the amount of damage they could cause would be fairly limited by operational constraints[1] [1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345?page=2 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-...

cromwellian 9y ago

Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this is mostly for show to comply on paper with UN resolutions.

adamnemecek 9y ago
I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.
- athenot 9y ago
  China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
  - adamnemecek 9y ago
    > At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict. I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.
    - vadman 9y ago
      The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2000&LMM=12&LYY=2016&WMO=47058&CONT=asie&REGION=0026&LAND=KR&ART=WDR&R=0&NOREGION=0&LEVEL=162&LANG=en&MOD=tab http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2... This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.

gypsy_boots 9y ago

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

zitterbewegung 9y ago
If we pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something big to save face. If we don't pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something be to get attention again.
thevardanian 9y ago
Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their development of nuclear arms about? NK is a signatory of the NPT. They broke their promise. They've broken their promise multiple times. What they're looking for isn't a resolution to their situation, if anything they want to prolong it as long as possible. What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression". Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.
- Clubber 9y ago
  >Perhaps China wants to annex NK. This makes sense. NK is valuable to China as a buffer from Western countries. I'm surprised by this announcement simply because from that strategic perspective, it hurts China. If they plan on annexing, that makes more sense. If they do, I'm sure we won't do much to stop them. We'll complain (us Westerners) but when the rubber meets the road, China is a better holder of that territory. Our only concern will be annexation of SK by China after NK, but I find that unlikely within the next 20 years.

marcoperaza 9y ago

I won't believe that China is actually serious about reining in North Korea until they stop all imports from North Korea.

agumonkey 9y ago

Not long ago I was shown this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc Interview of 2 ex-NorthKorean. It's informative (not much pathos or sensationalism even considering the context)

devdoomari 9y ago

I've been wary about the Chinese gov's honesty after the economic reparations after THAAD deployment in Korea. (NK made nukes, so US deployed THAAD to defend against NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon') Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even though it knows those people won't end well. But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be a start for a morally better China, a real Big Man country.

sangnoir 9y ago
> NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon' This "defense-only" weapon upsets the decade-old nuclear balance of M.A.D. because the THAAD radar is sensitivity and location weaken China's nuclear retaliatory ability.
- devdoomari 9y ago
  then the Chinese gov. should have forced NK to give up its nukes in the first place. It can, but didn't, so US and Korea have the reason to deploy THAAD. Chinese gov. should explain why it let NK have nukes before blaming 'power balance'

JustSomeNobody 9y ago

Most of his behavior is junk behavior and can be ignored. Obviously, if he does something harmful, that should not be ignored, but most everything else can and should be. Give him no response that he can use to put in front of his people; Nothing he can use to spin to show how powerful he is. Ignore it. Take the control away from him. But always keep an eye out for him doing something even remotely good and praise him for that. Send over food or whatever else his country may need. Reward the behavior you want to see. Ignore the behavior you don't.

longcheng 9y ago

Historically Korea had been a loyal vassal state of China for thousands of year. China had defended Korea against various barbarians from Mongolia plateau, Japan(multiple times) and America more recently. The reason NK still exists is not USA's mercy or NK's nuke, it's because it's neighboring with China & Russia. Same thing applies to Vietnam.