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Another alternative is that you may get a Galapagos island effect where Chinese firms do innovate, but their innovation is tied to the cultural and regulatory n

by Saad_M 9y ago

Another alternative is that you may get a Galapagos island effect where Chinese firms do innovate, but their innovation is tied to the cultural and regulatory norms and not very applicable outside of China. The same effect was seen with Japanese cell phone companies pre-smartphone era.

dv_dt 9y ago
But the effect was the complete opposite with Japanese car companies, which ended up being in massive competition with the US industry. (with ups and downs on both sides)
- akvadrako 9y ago
  And leading in many other industries too, like robotics and video games.
- nradov 9y ago
  After the initial round of product launches, most Japanese car companies started designing unique products for the US market. Many of the most popular "Japanese" cars in the US were designed and assembled in the US, and aren't even available for purchase in Japan. There are a few exceptions like the Prius, but overall the "Galapagos Island effect" is a good metaphor. It's a very isolated and unique market.
  - nihonde 9y ago
    The same is true in the other direction: Japanese domestic auto sales heavily favor models that you can’t buy in the US. Toyota has Crown dealerships that boast about selling JDM-only models.
  - dv_dt 9y ago
    It's speculative how much of the Japanese company design/assemble in the US is from trying to serve the market more closely, and how much is from trying to align with current or potential US trade restrictions. I think one might argue that there is a similarity of motivation in the US preserving auto industry capability in-nation with China wanting to develop tech capability in-nation. The motivation is similar, but the implementation is different. I do agree there could be a "Galapogos Island" effect, I just don't know how to predict which industry will experience it vs the opposite. I wonder if someday the US will be the Galapagos in that relation though with the sheer size of China and it's possibility to trade with near neighbours India and Indonesia.
    - nradov 9y ago
      In terms of consumer preferences, the US and Chinese auto markets are actually pretty similar right now. Chinese buyers seem to want most of the same things as US buyers. Of course they're not exactly the same but more alike than Japan, Europe, Africa, or South America. Australia is also fairly similar to China and the US. It's hard to predict the impact of potential trade restrictions and electrification requirements. The big multinational auto makers are pushing hard to harmonize rules around the globe, but populists and nationalists are pushing back.
      - TylerE 9y ago
        I'd say it's more like the US market of 20 or 30 years ago. They sell lots of Buicks.
        nradov 9y ago
        I was referring to general vehicle size and configuration preferences, not specific brands.
        TylerE 9y ago
        The best sellings cars are mostly mid-size sedans and minivans. That's the American market circa 1992 or so.
diminish 9y ago
If Chinese start an economic and cultural expansion which includes PRing their culture, movies, tech, products and building special relationships with developing world in Asia, Africa, south American and Europe they may end up being the globalization leader.
- jacquesm 9y ago
  That is going to be tough. A whole generation of Chinese see the west as cool and to be emulated. I have a hard time seeing a whole generation of Europeans and Americans wanting to emulate the Chinese, Japan, maybe. China, not so much.
  - AmIFirstToThink 9y ago
    And that's supposed to offend them? how? What makes you think Chinese are after making others follow them? I think they are pretty happy with the way things are now. Do you think that's what we are after? Making others emulate us? That sounds racist to me.
    - s4vi0r 9y ago
      Nobody is ever "pretty happy with the way things are" in the context of a country or company. It is absolutely in China's best interest to promote their culture abroad, and they absolutely do spend tons of money doing it. Also, I'm not sure you know what racism is.
    - nikdaheratik 9y ago
      The choice for China is to either be an insulated and isolated country with little exposure to the rest of the world, or to reach out and contribute in the conversation. I think we're already decades past the point where they can close themselves off, but if they want their own people to appreciate their culture, they have to be just as innovative as the rest of the world. Otherwise, people will stop listening and believing in what the party has to say.
    - JamesBarney 9y ago
andrioni 9y ago
Although China has such a large market (and potential to close the market if need be) that not being able to expand outside of China won't be a problem for a long time.
bluetwo 9y ago
An argument could be made that this is why their large investments in movies and entertainment has failed outside the homeland.

by Saad_M 9y ago

dv_dt 9y ago

But the effect was the complete opposite with Japanese car companies, which ended up being in massive competition with the US industry. (with ups and downs on both sides)

akvadrako 9y ago
And leading in many other industries too, like robotics and video games.
nradov 9y ago
After the initial round of product launches, most Japanese car companies started designing unique products for the US market. Many of the most popular "Japanese" cars in the US were designed and assembled in the US, and aren't even available for purchase in Japan. There are a few exceptions like the Prius, but overall the "Galapagos Island effect" is a good metaphor. It's a very isolated and unique market.
- nihonde 9y ago
  The same is true in the other direction: Japanese domestic auto sales heavily favor models that you can’t buy in the US. Toyota has Crown dealerships that boast about selling JDM-only models.
- dv_dt 9y ago
  It's speculative how much of the Japanese company design/assemble in the US is from trying to serve the market more closely, and how much is from trying to align with current or potential US trade restrictions. I think one might argue that there is a similarity of motivation in the US preserving auto industry capability in-nation with China wanting to develop tech capability in-nation. The motivation is similar, but the implementation is different. I do agree there could be a "Galapogos Island" effect, I just don't know how to predict which industry will experience it vs the opposite. I wonder if someday the US will be the Galapagos in that relation though with the sheer size of China and it's possibility to trade with near neighbours India and Indonesia.
  - nradov 9y ago
    In terms of consumer preferences, the US and Chinese auto markets are actually pretty similar right now. Chinese buyers seem to want most of the same things as US buyers. Of course they're not exactly the same but more alike than Japan, Europe, Africa, or South America. Australia is also fairly similar to China and the US. It's hard to predict the impact of potential trade restrictions and electrification requirements. The big multinational auto makers are pushing hard to harmonize rules around the globe, but populists and nationalists are pushing back.
    - TylerE 9y ago
      I'd say it's more like the US market of 20 or 30 years ago. They sell lots of Buicks.
      - nradov 9y ago
        I was referring to general vehicle size and configuration preferences, not specific brands.
        TylerE 9y ago
        The best sellings cars are mostly mid-size sedans and minivans. That's the American market circa 1992 or so.

diminish 9y ago

If Chinese start an economic and cultural expansion which includes PRing their culture, movies, tech, products and building special relationships with developing world in Asia, Africa, south American and Europe they may end up being the globalization leader.

jacquesm 9y ago
That is going to be tough. A whole generation of Chinese see the west as cool and to be emulated. I have a hard time seeing a whole generation of Europeans and Americans wanting to emulate the Chinese, Japan, maybe. China, not so much.
- AmIFirstToThink 9y ago
  And that's supposed to offend them? how? What makes you think Chinese are after making others follow them? I think they are pretty happy with the way things are now. Do you think that's what we are after? Making others emulate us? That sounds racist to me.
  - s4vi0r 9y ago
    Nobody is ever "pretty happy with the way things are" in the context of a country or company. It is absolutely in China's best interest to promote their culture abroad, and they absolutely do spend tons of money doing it. Also, I'm not sure you know what racism is.
  - nikdaheratik 9y ago
    The choice for China is to either be an insulated and isolated country with little exposure to the rest of the world, or to reach out and contribute in the conversation. I think we're already decades past the point where they can close themselves off, but if they want their own people to appreciate their culture, they have to be just as innovative as the rest of the world. Otherwise, people will stop listening and believing in what the party has to say.
  - JamesBarney 9y ago

andrioni 9y ago

Although China has such a large market (and potential to close the market if need be) that not being able to expand outside of China won't be a problem for a long time.

bluetwo 9y ago

An argument could be made that this is why their large investments in movies and entertainment has failed outside the homeland.