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China's economy is crashing, and Chinese government is panicking.

codefined 9y ago
Can you give any more details on "China's economy is crashing"? I must admit I haven't heard anything negative about their economy, thought it was on the up and up.
- adamnemecek 9y ago
  Exactly it can't keep going up and up. https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/15/chinas-debt-boom-could-lead-financial-crisis-imf-warns/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017...
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - fwdslash 9y ago
    True but it hasn't crashed yet.
  - inferiorhuman 9y ago
    AMP links? Really? Here's the non crapified link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/15/chinas-debt-boom-could-lead-financial-crisis-imf-warns/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/15/chinas-debt-b...
    - voidz 9y ago
      Thanks. People sharing amp links... it was only a matter of time, and really, really sucks.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  They have a lot of debt building up as well as a huge real estate bubble that makes SF look tame. However, it hasn't crashed yet.
  - AlexCoventry 9y ago
    It's all sovereign debt, denominated in a token they can create at will. It's not like a household with an out of control credit card habit.
    - westiseast 9y ago
      That means they can't go bankrupt; it doesn't mean the debt isn't a problem.
    - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
      Sure. But it still can't grow forever without dragging down the real economy, at some point soon growth has to stop, and then what?
      - AlexCoventry 9y ago
        From the PRC's perspective, the yuan is a just a tool to stimulate productive activity in their population towards the goals expressed in state budgets. If they can muster the political will, they can simply levy highly progressive taxes to reduce inflation and keep on spending. There is nothing stopping them, ideologically.
        seanmcdirmid 9y ago
        If growth is mostly currently debt fueled, that growth can easily stop and reverse when the debt is pulled back. Recession at best, depression at worst, definitely there will be a few crashes along the way. Do you think real estate can really be sustained at it's current levels? Much of it has been bought as a speculative asset (no property taxes makes that easy) with the idea that it can only keep going up because of urbanization. However, farmers are generally poor not rich, it is not clear where the "bigger idiots" are going to come from. China's tax burden is already high for those that pay them. Going after those that don't at the high end is difficult because they tend to be officials or highly connected to officials in the first place.
almost_usual 9y ago
Have any sources to back this up?
bjshepard 9y ago
If you understand the population distribution in the PRC, have spent time in a Tier 2 or Tier 3 city, and think deeply about economic growth, the idea that the Chinese economy could "crash" is laughable: there is a vast pool of emerging customers that will continue to fuel growth over the foreseeable future. The question is whether global trends, especially related to climate change driven instability, will interfere in the emergence of the socialist/communist market economy. If you find a contradiction in the conception of a socialist/communist market economy, check Dominic Losurdo's "Has China Turned to Capitalism?—Reflections on the Transition from Capitalism to Socialism" published in the March 2017 issue of International Critical Thought.
- ue_ 9y ago
  Although a Socialist (using this in the sense of lower-stage Communist, rather than as Marx used it as synonymous with Communism) market economy can be practicable, China does not have it - most notably because there is wage labour and private property is protected by the State. The State is also not in democratic control of the workers. These rule out China from being either a Socialist country or having a Socialist (market or not) economy.

Can you give any more details on "China's economy is crashing"? I must admit I haven't heard anything negative about their economy, thought it was on the up and up.

adamnemecek 9y ago
Exactly it can't keep going up and up. https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/15/chinas-debt-boom-could-lead-financial-crisis-imf-warns/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017...
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- fwdslash 9y ago
  True but it hasn't crashed yet.
- inferiorhuman 9y ago
  AMP links? Really? Here's the non crapified link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/15/chinas-debt-boom-could-lead-financial-crisis-imf-warns/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/15/chinas-debt-b...
  - voidz 9y ago
    Thanks. People sharing amp links... it was only a matter of time, and really, really sucks.
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
They have a lot of debt building up as well as a huge real estate bubble that makes SF look tame. However, it hasn't crashed yet.
- AlexCoventry 9y ago
  It's all sovereign debt, denominated in a token they can create at will. It's not like a household with an out of control credit card habit.
  - westiseast 9y ago
    That means they can't go bankrupt; it doesn't mean the debt isn't a problem.
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    Sure. But it still can't grow forever without dragging down the real economy, at some point soon growth has to stop, and then what?
    - AlexCoventry 9y ago
      From the PRC's perspective, the yuan is a just a tool to stimulate productive activity in their population towards the goals expressed in state budgets. If they can muster the political will, they can simply levy highly progressive taxes to reduce inflation and keep on spending. There is nothing stopping them, ideologically.
      - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
        If growth is mostly currently debt fueled, that growth can easily stop and reverse when the debt is pulled back. Recession at best, depression at worst, definitely there will be a few crashes along the way. Do you think real estate can really be sustained at it's current levels? Much of it has been bought as a speculative asset (no property taxes makes that easy) with the idea that it can only keep going up because of urbanization. However, farmers are generally poor not rich, it is not clear where the "bigger idiots" are going to come from. China's tax burden is already high for those that pay them. Going after those that don't at the high end is difficult because they tend to be officials or highly connected to officials in the first place.

almost_usual 9y ago

Have any sources to back this up?

bjshepard 9y ago

If you understand the population distribution in the PRC, have spent time in a Tier 2 or Tier 3 city, and think deeply about economic growth, the idea that the Chinese economy could "crash" is laughable: there is a vast pool of emerging customers that will continue to fuel growth over the foreseeable future. The question is whether global trends, especially related to climate change driven instability, will interfere in the emergence of the socialist/communist market economy. If you find a contradiction in the conception of a socialist/communist market economy, check Dominic Losurdo's "Has China Turned to Capitalism?—Reflections on the Transition from Capitalism to Socialism" published in the March 2017 issue of International Critical Thought.

ue_ 9y ago
Although a Socialist (using this in the sense of lower-stage Communist, rather than as Marx used it as synonymous with Communism) market economy can be practicable, China does not have it - most notably because there is wage labour and private property is protected by the State. The State is also not in democratic control of the workers. These rule out China from being either a Socialist country or having a Socialist (market or not) economy.