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The title is misleading. Cost per mile is calculated as the initial vehicle price over range. It would be interesting to see if electricity cost per mile drive

by eknkc 9y ago

The title is misleading. Cost per mile is calculated as the initial vehicle price over range. It would be interesting to see if electricity cost per mile driven was also falling.

Animats 9y ago
Yes, that's kind of a strange metric. The discouraging thing in the article is "Although the global EV market set a record for number of sales in 2016, market growth actually slowed to 60 percent in 2016 from 77 percent in 2015."
- Gibbon1 9y ago
  Out of my keister prediction is demand is somewhat suppressed as people wait for the new crop of improved electric cars to hit the market.
- Retric 9y ago
  Electric cars are ~2% of the global sales and compounding 50% growth would hit 100% in 10 years which seems inanely optimistic. I suspect they will hit 10% fairly quickly, but take much longer to break 50%. The really interesting transition is when gas stations start disappearing.
  - lttlrck 9y ago
    Gas stations disappearing will coincide with government figuring out how to fill the gap in tax revenue. Such as special rate charging stations.
  - chairmanwow 9y ago
    > gas stations start disappearing Already happened in Japan.
  - FigBug 9y ago
    It's already happening, last one os gone from downtown Vancouver: http://bc.ctvnews.ca/last-gas-vancouver-s-sole-remaining-downtown-gas-station-for-sale-1.3363976 http://bc.ctvnews.ca/last-gas-vancouver-s-sole-remaining-dow... It's due to property values, not electric cars, but it would be interesting to see if people switch to electrics because of disappearing gas stations.
jessriedel 9y ago
"Cost per mile of range" would be much better.
- osteele 9y ago
  Cost per mile varies a lot per state, and varies differently for gas versus EV: * $/kWh varies by a factor of 2.2 within the continental U.S., from Washington at <$0.1/kWH to Connecticut and Alaska at >$0.2/kWH. (Hawaii is an outlier $0.3/kWH.) Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... * $/gallon varies by 1.4, from Midwestern states at around $2.3/gallon to Washington and California > $3/gallon. Source: http://www.gasbuddy.com/USA http://www.gasbuddy.com/USA * Some places gas is cheap and electricity is expensive, and vice versa. The ratio of $/kWh to $/gallon varies by a factor of 2.3 from gas-cheap NH, MA, and AK to gas-dear Washington and Oregon. * Some states get (much) colder in winter. Cold weather impacts EV mileage much worse than gas engine mileage, especially if you spend fuel on cabin heat. Maybe someone will build a calculator? It would be nice to have something like https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?mcubz=1&_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal... for gas versus EV purchases. [Edited to replace 2011 kWH data by data from June 2017]
dogruck 9y ago
It's a preposterous metric. Dividing the cost of the car by the range of the car!? Also, are they talking about the price the buyer pays, or the total price, including government subsidies?
- URSpider94 9y ago
  It is not at all a preposterous metric. Range anxiety is one of the key factors in keeping people from buying electric cars. Up until this year, you had to spend nearly $100k to get an EV with 200+ mile range - now you can get one for less than $40k. Up to this point, each mile of range adds substantially to the perceived value of an EV.
  - dogruck 9y ago
    Sure, the stat has some information content. To me, it's like saying "cell phones are getting more expensive, but cost/battery-life is improving! Do people care about battery life? Absolutely! But I guarantee they care much more about purchase price, resale value and generally total cost of ownership. If the car's price went up 2x, but the car's range went up 3x, I don't think you'd see celebration in the streets. That's why the metric is preposterous.
    - sowbug 9y ago
      $70K for a Tesla Model 3 with a 660-mile range would be worth celebrating -- especially if it's $63K after federal tax incentives.
      - dogruck 9y ago
        How about $126k for a car with a 1400 mile range?
        sowbug 9y ago
        As long as it includes a portable toilet.
DennisP 9y ago
It's an interesting metric because battery is such a large portion of the price. You can make an electric car a lot cheaper by giving it a shorter range. So if you want to see how electric cars are progressing towards being economical with practical ranges, price/range is a good ratio.
URSpider94 9y ago
Electricity cost per mile driven is not falling. Electricity costs per kWh go up slightly every year, I've never seen that cost go down (though it also varies widely across providers, and even time of day). EV's are also not really getting more efficient, if anything efficiency is going down a little as batteries get larger and people don't have to obsess about squeezing range out of the car (I see a lot of Teslas cruising in the left lane at 85 mph). Net-net, electricity cost per mile driven is going up, but is still significantly lower than for gasoline in most locales.

by eknkc 9y ago

The title is misleading. Cost per mile is calculated as the initial vehicle price over range. It would be interesting to see if electricity cost per mile driven was also falling.

Animats 9y ago

Yes, that's kind of a strange metric. The discouraging thing in the article is "Although the global EV market set a record for number of sales in 2016, market growth actually slowed to 60 percent in 2016 from 77 percent in 2015."

Gibbon1 9y ago
Out of my keister prediction is demand is somewhat suppressed as people wait for the new crop of improved electric cars to hit the market.
Retric 9y ago
Electric cars are ~2% of the global sales and compounding 50% growth would hit 100% in 10 years which seems inanely optimistic. I suspect they will hit 10% fairly quickly, but take much longer to break 50%. The really interesting transition is when gas stations start disappearing.
- lttlrck 9y ago
  Gas stations disappearing will coincide with government figuring out how to fill the gap in tax revenue. Such as special rate charging stations.
- chairmanwow 9y ago
  > gas stations start disappearing Already happened in Japan.
- FigBug 9y ago
  It's already happening, last one os gone from downtown Vancouver: http://bc.ctvnews.ca/last-gas-vancouver-s-sole-remaining-downtown-gas-station-for-sale-1.3363976 http://bc.ctvnews.ca/last-gas-vancouver-s-sole-remaining-dow... It's due to property values, not electric cars, but it would be interesting to see if people switch to electrics because of disappearing gas stations.

jessriedel 9y ago

"Cost per mile of range" would be much better.

osteele 9y ago
Cost per mile varies a lot per state, and varies differently for gas versus EV: * $/kWh varies by a factor of 2.2 within the continental U.S., from Washington at <$0.1/kWH to Connecticut and Alaska at >$0.2/kWH. (Hawaii is an outlier $0.3/kWH.) Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... * $/gallon varies by 1.4, from Midwestern states at around $2.3/gallon to Washington and California > $3/gallon. Source: http://www.gasbuddy.com/USA http://www.gasbuddy.com/USA * Some places gas is cheap and electricity is expensive, and vice versa. The ratio of $/kWh to $/gallon varies by a factor of 2.3 from gas-cheap NH, MA, and AK to gas-dear Washington and Oregon. * Some states get (much) colder in winter. Cold weather impacts EV mileage much worse than gas engine mileage, especially if you spend fuel on cabin heat. Maybe someone will build a calculator? It would be nice to have something like https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?mcubz=1&_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal... for gas versus EV purchases. [Edited to replace 2011 kWH data by data from June 2017]

dogruck 9y ago

It's a preposterous metric. Dividing the cost of the car by the range of the car!? Also, are they talking about the price the buyer pays, or the total price, including government subsidies?

URSpider94 9y ago
It is not at all a preposterous metric. Range anxiety is one of the key factors in keeping people from buying electric cars. Up until this year, you had to spend nearly $100k to get an EV with 200+ mile range - now you can get one for less than $40k. Up to this point, each mile of range adds substantially to the perceived value of an EV.
- dogruck 9y ago
  Sure, the stat has some information content. To me, it's like saying "cell phones are getting more expensive, but cost/battery-life is improving! Do people care about battery life? Absolutely! But I guarantee they care much more about purchase price, resale value and generally total cost of ownership. If the car's price went up 2x, but the car's range went up 3x, I don't think you'd see celebration in the streets. That's why the metric is preposterous.
  - sowbug 9y ago
    $70K for a Tesla Model 3 with a 660-mile range would be worth celebrating -- especially if it's $63K after federal tax incentives.
    - dogruck 9y ago
      How about $126k for a car with a 1400 mile range?
      - sowbug 9y ago
        As long as it includes a portable toilet.

DennisP 9y ago

It's an interesting metric because battery is such a large portion of the price. You can make an electric car a lot cheaper by giving it a shorter range. So if you want to see how electric cars are progressing towards being economical with practical ranges, price/range is a good ratio.

URSpider94 9y ago

Electricity cost per mile driven is not falling. Electricity costs per kWh go up slightly every year, I've never seen that cost go down (though it also varies widely across providers, and even time of day). EV's are also not really getting more efficient, if anything efficiency is going down a little as batteries get larger and people don't have to obsess about squeezing range out of the car (I see a lot of Teslas cruising in the left lane at 85 mph). Net-net, electricity cost per mile driven is going up, but is still significantly lower than for gasoline in most locales.