8 ms·

Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

197 points by peterkshultz 9y ago

Declanomous 9y ago
I have trouble understanding how winning the lottery this often doesn't immediately raise red flags for fraud. Is there some reason that people might buy winning lottery tickets?
- brunoqc 9y ago
  > Is there some reason that people might buy winning lottery tickets? Money laundering maybe. It wouldn't make much sense for the seller.
- aetherson 9y ago
  The article suggests that people who owe back taxes or certain legal fees would have their winnings garnished. So they find a "clean" ostensible winner to claim the winnings, presumably paying him or her a smaller fee.
- danso 9y ago
  IIRC, from a NICAR listserv discussion with the Florida reporter, it's not that the claimed winners actually bought the tickets from the ticket dispensers. It's that the actual purchasers of the winning ticket sell it to these frequent buyers at a slight discount, so that they (the actual purchasers) don't have a financial paper trail. Not necessarily for tax purposes (the second-hand buyer would have to eventually pay for that), but for things like child support and divorce alimony. Searched through my old emails and here are a couple of excerpts (from Mower, and various other reporters responding to the thread): > "Once we zeroed in on these "prolific" winners, we discovered other bizarre patterns. They were winning from dozens of stores across multiple counties, would start their winning streaks out of the blue (versus spotty wins over a long period of time) and most were owners or clerks at places that sold tickets (we had to do that research on our own)." > A lot of tickets are second-hand, which may well be illegal and is probably often used as a dodge around child-support payments edit: In terms of why it doesn't raise red flags, it's because in most bureaucratic systems, there just aren't red flags built into databases and record-keeping. Florida is probably by far one of the best states in terms of transparent and computer/machine-readable recordkeeping, but someone has to have the initiative to do the analysis, even if it's just a simple SQL query. From an unrelated investigation from another Florida outlet about bad cops getting rehired: https://ire.org/blog/on-the-road/2011/12/20/behind-story-tracking-police/ https://ire.org/blog/on-the-road/2011/12/20/behind-story-tra... > This was a case where the government had this wonderful, informative dataset and they weren’t using it at all except to compile the information. I remember talking to one person at an office and saying: “How could you guys not know some of this? In five minutes of (SQL) queries you know everything about these officers?” They basically said it wasn't their job. That left a huge opportunity for us. edit 2: In the case of the original Florida story by the Palm Beach Post, it appears that the actual problem was that clerks were actively deceiving and stealing from the winners: http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_post_ferrets_out_florida_lottery_fraud.php http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_pos... > The stores that sell lottery tickets in Florida all have a machine that will scan a ticket and determine if it’s a winner. People who buy the tickets bring them back to stores to see if they’ve won. But they’re often relying on the store clerks to tell the truth about what the machine says. So the clerks can tell the buyer, “Hey, sorry man, better luck next time,” and then pocket the guy’s winning ticket. In other states, the problem is money laundering.
- jlgaddis 9y ago
  See the "real article" [0] that this one links to; it lists several. [0]: http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_part_1.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_pa...
danso 9y ago
That's funny to see this article. I remember an article about it -- also in CJR -- when the original series broke in 2014 [0]. Looks like this article, which is from today, is about other reporters taking it nationwide. Which is great. One of the more confounding things (to me) about journalism is how a great investigation in one state isn't done in another. Not by the reporting team of the first story, but by any journalist in other states, because it's easy "money", in the sense that you have a framework to copy/imitate, and if there was a corrupt system in one state, there's likely to be something similar in all the other 49 states. And it will still be "news" because of how fundamentally different state laws and bureaucracies are. But then again, sometimes newsrooms have a culture of not wanting to be seen as doing something that has been perceived to have been done, even if it was by a non-competitor (e.g. a non-Florida newspaper, in this case) Seeing investigative efforts replicated nationwide not only makes for 50 unique-in-their-own way stories, that benefit 50 different jurisdictions. You also get bonus meta-stories about states that are severe outliers, when the 50 are compared and contrasted. [0] http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_post_ferrets_out_florida_lottery_fraud.php http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_pos...
nrmitchi 9y ago
This post seems to be a summary of an entire series relating to 'Improbably Frequent Winners'. The first post of the actual series, which is a lot more in depth, is here: http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_part_1.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_pa...
inetknght 9y ago
I sincerely hope that the states would be willing to look at Oregon and Florida's solutions to the requests. I actually also really like the CD being issued, because it's a physical thing that you could take into court in contrast to a web page (which often isn't quite as useful these days because all of these fancy web apps) and know that it hasn't changed one iota. It'd be better if it were a usb thumb drive if it's to be a bit more modern.
- jlgaddis 9y ago
  When it comes to courts, you're usually dealing with printed out copies of the web pages. In most cases, that's much more convenient than dealing with an HTML page saved to disk.
- kijin 9y ago
  On the contrary, as someone who lives in a place where lottery winners are allowed to remain anonymous, I find it bizarre that these states are willing to give out such full information (even for winnings as small as $600) to anyone who asks, not just to law enforcement investigating potential fraud. The chance of your life getting ruined after winning the lottery is proportional (among other factors) to the number of people who know that you've suddenly landed a fortune and want a favor. I once read an article about people who continued to live normally after winning the lottery. Most of them only told a few people and tried not to draw attention. One man didn't even tell his wife until he lost his job a few years later and had to explain to her why she shouldn't be worried at all! But that's going to be impossible if the state publishes your name and the exact amount of your winnings for anyone to see. They might as well publish everyone's tax records, too, including Trump's that everyone's been asking for.
jmharvey 9y ago
It's too bad the article doesn't go in more depth. There are a few plausible explanations for why people claim an unusually high number of prizes: 1) Someone is buying a huge number of tickets, and just winning proportional to the amount that they spend. 2) Someone is a "10 percenter." They buy winning tickets at a discount to the prize amount, collect losing tickets that they didn't actually buy, and commit blatant tax fraud by claiming "losses" that offset their "winnings." 3) Someone knows which tickets are going to win before buying them. All three of these stories are interesting, but they're very different. Most coverage seems to assume (2), but stops at "tax agency is incompetent at detecting blatant tax fraud" without exploring why the tax agency is so bad at what they do.
- jonas21 9y ago
  They link to the actual article: http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_part_1.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_pa... It covers some of the explanations for why some people claim so many prizes: > Based on legal proceedings, lottery investigations and confessions from some frequent winners, the following techniques - or a combination of them - have generally explained how some players have defied the odds: > 1. "Theft": As in Ontario, investigators have repeatedly caught store clerks or owners stealing winning lottery tickets from prize claimants and claiming them for themselves. To allay suspicion, some have used friends or family members to cash stolen tickets on their behalf. > 2. Cheating: It's difficult to cheat the lottery, but some players have been caught "micro-scratching," a practice where a person, typically a store clerk or owner, scratches a tiny portion of an unsold scratch ticket to see if it's a winner and then claims it. > 3. "Ticket cashing" or "discounting": A practice where a person cashes in a winning ticket on someone else's behalf. Often the seller is trying to avoid having debts, like overdue child support payments, from being deducted from their winnings. Typically the winner sells their ticket to the buyer at less than its value - a "discount" - which allows the buyer to make a small profit. In some states, like Virginia, this practice is illegal. In other states, like Pennsylvania, it isn't. > 4. Money laundering: Some states have caught criminals buying winning lottery tickets from players and then cashing them for themselves. By doing so, they effectively turn "dirty money," like drug profits, into "clean money." In a well-known case, the "Black Mafia Family" purchased more than $1 million in winning Michigan lottery tickets between 1990 and 2005.
fergie 9y ago
Years ago I had a friend who's father made a living smuggling cigarettes (and probably other stuff) from Northern Africa to Gibraltar. He laundered his income by buying winning lottery tickets.
- Too 9y ago
  Where would one find sellers of winning lottery tickets? You must either be a store clerk or wait outside for people to cash them in?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - dragandj 9y ago
    People who are genuine winners, for example? You pay them a premium for the ticket.
    - Too 9y ago
      Yeah? Where would one find genuine winners? It's not like there's an open market for this, and since winners are random people they are unlikely to be aware of black markets. Paying them a premium is obvious.
      - quuquuquu 9y ago
        Paying them a premium is not precisely accurate. A $100,000 lottery ticket would in the US involve 30-45k in taxes for an unmarried person. So I bet it would probably sell for around $75,000 cash up front, which is a decrease from the sticker price. But if I was the winner, I would treat it as extremely shady and probably just go the legit route for almost any price. The US banking system easily detects large cash deposits under 10k even into bank accounts, and then confiscates the money. And I don't really want to keep $75,000 cash in my mattress.
        9y ago
romeopov 9y ago
Has anyone considered some of these people might be psychic? Professor Daryl Bem's published study "Feeling the Future" comes to mind.
- gboudrias 9y ago
  You're being serious? I don't mean to be overly hostile, but the implications would be world-shattering and the "mundane" explanation is quite sufficient. Also lottery-winning psychics wouldn't get caught.
  - romeopov 9y ago
    The mundane explanations doesn't answer anything. It's just pure speculation. They didn't eben talk to the guy who had the most frequent wins. Why wouldn't psychics get caught?
    - pg_bot 9y ago
      ...because psychics don't exist
      - hnzix 9y ago
        I knew you were going to say that.
    - WalterBright 9y ago
      Psychics explanations don't explain anything.
    - danso 9y ago
      What is the burden of evidence you have for the mundane explanations? That is, what would they have to show to you for you to believe them beyond a reasonable doubt? Technically, every possible criminal act conceivable in our known universe could be blamed on an invisible, time-traveling Hitler.
    - csydas 9y ago
ryacko 9y ago
it's possible, some people have gotten struck by lighting over a dozen times, which in theory is as likely as winning the Powerball twice. (1 in 12,000 likelyhood of being struck over your lifetime)
- everdev 9y ago
  Well, the lottery is supposed to be statistically random. If you live in an area with lots of lightning and your job involves being outside up high with metal you might be at an above average risk for getting hit. People aren't supposed to have better chances of winning the lottery than the next player.
- Retric 9y ago
  Lightning is not 100% random as many people don't go out in storms which changes the odds.
- monktastic1 9y ago
  https://xkcd.com/795/ https://xkcd.com/795/
- planteen 9y ago
  Foolish activities, like hiking above treeline afternoon in the summer, greatly increase that risk.
MarkMc 9y ago
There is a bigger issue here: Why wasn't such an analysis done 50 years ago? Where is the incentive for people to uncover fraud? All governments should have a rule that says: if you uncover fraud or waste in a government department you get 5% of the money that taxpayers save.
- yorwba 9y ago
  Your proposed rule contains a great fraud opportunity: pay someone in government to "accidentally" waste money and then "uncover" it to cash out 5% of the waste.
  - fnl 9y ago
    Well, if properly restricted to criminal fraud, it does make sense to me?
  - MarkMc 9y ago
    That's a good point - to be honest I hadn't considered that. However, government officials already have the opportunity to 'accidentally' waste money by paying more than necessary for goods or services, then getting a kickback from the supplier. Most likely the kickback would be more than 5%.
rodrigocoelho 9y ago
Never forget João Alves, the Brazilian politician who had won part of 200 lotteries, because, as he said, "God helped me, and I made money". http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/30/world/new-government-corruption-scandal-leaves-brazil-stunned.html http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/30/world/new-government-corru...
- ghostDancer 9y ago
  In Spain politician Carlos Fabra won more than 2 million euros in several lotteries, now is in jail and being investigated for corruption. It's famous in Spain for that and for having built an airport that it's empty with almost no flights at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castell%C3%B3n%E2%80%93Costa_Azahar_Airport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castell%C3%B3n%E2%80%93Costa_A...
cyberferret 9y ago
Persistence might be key? Some people may be addicted to gambling with lottery tickets, or may just buy more than others in the same area. I remember once early in my IT career, I was doing work for the local government agency that was responsible for issuing all the 'scratch the ticket and find 3 matching symbols' lottery games in our state. They used to sell the tickets at the front counter of the agency office as well as various shops and newsagencies around town etc. While I was working on a PC in the manager's office, another manager came in and said that one of the games had sold ALL tickets at the other retail outlets, and that they had about a hundred $2 tickets left at their front desk and the main prize of $1000 hadn't gone off yet. When one manager left the room, the other manager looked at me and said "Well, the rules forbid us from buying those tickets, but if you have a spare couple of hundred on you, I'd buy up all those tickets at the front counter...". I thought it was all a bit weird and didn't bite, but I found out later that a friend of someone who worked there bought all the tickets, and sure enough, won the $1000 prize in that particular game. Made me wonder how many 'friends' of people who worked there were in on the old unsold ticket grey marketing? Also while growing up, there was a family that lived down the road from us who always seemed to win almost every giveaway competition in our town - free TV's, food, whitegoods, airline tickets, you name it. One day I was actually there visiting their son who was about the same age, and I noticed that their mother was entering competitions almost as a full time occupation. She would get various catalogues and our local newspaper and sit down with the kids every afternoon cutting out and sending out coupons, competition entries and sweepstakes all the time - they would have to be sending out at least 20+ per day. Way to stack the odds in their favour. They eventually left town in the most spectacular fashion - when Michael Jackson did one of his huge tours of Australia, the family won a set of tickets to see him in a sweepstakes, then promptly bought tickets for ALL of his other shows in other states in Australia! This information got leaked to the press, and Jackson found out about it, and ended up inviting this family to Neverland in the US where 2 of the kids ended up staying for years. You that old saying - you make your own luck. I think this particular family lived it.
- radicalbyte 9y ago
  As a parent you would have had to have been insane to leave your kids to live with MJ, not to sure I'd call it lucky. This information got leaked to the press, and Jackson found out about it, and ended up inviting this family to Neverland in the US where 2 of the kids ended up staying for years. You that old saying - you make your own luck. I think this particular family lived it.
projectant 9y ago
Clarance Jones http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequent_lottery_winner_wins_again/ http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequ... TL;DR - Audited by IRS but had 200 boxes of losing tickets & records in storage facilities, which the auditors apparently didn't want to search through. He ended up winning his defense against the state's tax claims as well. How does he win so much? Is he psychic?
- quuquuquu 9y ago
  Probably just caught a lucky break when they didn't want to search through the 20 boxes of duds he bought from 7/11 for less than the cost of paper ;)
  - monktastic1 9y ago
    Yeah but how did he win so much? Edit: just read the article. Seems to be cashing in for others.
    - quuquuquu 9y ago
      Yup that's what I think too. Guy has a thing for lottery tickets as income. Covered his tracks by keeping thousands and thousands of non-winning tickets that he probably bought bulk for pennies per box. Feds show up and see the boxes and say "shit, this guy must have really bought 300 million bucks worth of lottery tickets!" and walk away. Pretty bad investigstion lol
      - curun1r 9y ago
        OTOH, he could be the front man for one of the lottery syndicates mentioned in: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit-students-gamed-the-lottery/470349/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit... There have been lots of groups that have made lots of money by intelligently playing specific MA lottery games at specific times, so those 300m tickets might be real.
jimhefferon 9y ago
I don't see that anyone has yet referenced this article. https://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1 https://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1 It explains how to win (an old lotto), and more importantly why there is a way to win.
- eveningcoffee 9y ago
  Oh wow, I did not know that: >The North American lottery system is a $70 billion-a-year business, an industry bigger than movie tickets, music, and porn combined.
- js2 9y ago
  Yup, also: "Lottery legend Joan Ginther bet flabbergasting sums on scratch-offs" (2014) http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/Lotterys_luckiest_woman_Joan_Ginther_bet_flabbergasting_sums_on_scratch-offs.html http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/Lotterys_luck... And: "How MIT Students Won $8 Million in the Massachusetts Lottery" (2012) http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/08/07/how-mit-students-scammed-the-massachusetts-lottery-for-8-million/ http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/08/07/how-mit-students-scammed...
cyberferret 9y ago
I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these sound like professional lottery players who check odds and play the system much as they would the stock market. They probably have set systems in place and complex prediction and statistical algorithms which ensures they win just more than they lose? I am thinking that 'pro' players such as these might skew the statistic for winners to a large extent?
- praptak 9y ago
  I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them. A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering.
  - shubb 9y ago
    Explains why 'i won it on an ico' is such an appealing explanation of wealth to some bitcoin users...
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    > rare 'bugs' in the game design They may not be all that rare. > A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering. The second is definitely a factor. Even the Dutch state run casinos were/are used for this.
  - lordnacho 9y ago
    > I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-geniuses-netted-8million-Massachusetts-state-lottery-discovering-loophole.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-ge... If the game is badly designed, some smart cookie will find out and exploit it.
wonderous 9y ago
Maybe their research should have also included a Google search of the statistical unusual winners name in quotes plus the state name plus Lottery winner: For example, the most winning lottery winner in America was covered by the Boston Globe in 2011: http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequent_lottery_winner_wins_again/ http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequ... [1] He's been on the radar as a ticket cashier since at least 1999 and has been getting an IRS refund for his gambling losses since 1988.
- ringaroundthetx 9y ago
  How does he do that? The IRS allows you to deduct up to the amount of your gambling winnings, so you wouldn't get a refund, unless the state was automatically withholding some of his winnings. There is also the possibility that he set up a company that only engages in gambling, so it can have a Net Operating Loss year over year.
aerovistae 9y ago
In the book "Ringworld," an excellent work of science fiction that inspired the setting of the Halo franchise, there is a character who was bred for luck (as though it were a genetic trait) via a birthright lottery. The reasoning was that those who won would be luckiest, and she was the descendant of 6 straight generations of birthright lottery winners. The character is impossibly lucky all the time.
- cpeterso 9y ago
  Intacto is a Spanish film about people who can steal other people's luck. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intacto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intacto
jaclaz 9y ago
On other news, most probably Mr. Philip Stark ( a statistician at the University of California, Berkeley): http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_math.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_ma... calculated to be implausible that on Hacker News he would be nominated by someone in a same post with the quote from the Simpsons "Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that.". Yet it just happened.
olivermarks 9y ago
Maybe a more sophisticated modern numbers game with lottery insiders colluding with 'winners'? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_game https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_game
randomfrench 9y ago
A possible rationnal explanation : In France some scratchcard are sold to merchants in packages containing a proportional number of winning cards. For example, on a lot of 100 cards, sixty are null, 20 allows you to earn five euros, 10 allows you to earn ten euros ... So the cheat is easy for a merchant (or his complices) : he just needs scratching each cards of a packages until find the maximum earnings. The others cards are sold to customers. http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2008/11/26/01016-20081126ARTFIG00526-tricherie-la-francaise-des-jeux-perd-son-proces-.php http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2008/11/26/01016-200... sfmbe
jaypaulynice 9y ago
Of course there are ways to beat the lottery. For one, ask the clerk which ticket to buy. They will gladly give you the one most people win from. Also you can study the patterns. If you buy the same ticket over and over, a streak of losing is a good idea that something big is coming (uneven distribution of the odds). Most people at this point would give up and buy a different ticket, but that's a bad strategy. A streak of winning small amounts is actually bad (proper distribution of the odds). With a little social engineering (small talks with other customers), you can gather that intelligence. Evidence of this effect: the powerball, mega millions, etc. When no one wins they balloon. When someone wins each time, they win relatively small amounts. Another mistake people make is buying different tickets instead of the same. That's why only a few people win. So much of lottery is reverse psychology.
- jamiek88 9y ago
  No, not reverse psychology just you seeking and seeing patterns where there are none. There isn’t a strategy you can use as an individual unless you can throw tens of millions at it to exploit basly designed games like the MIT guys did. Your sad head shaking at those falling for reverse psychology is ironic.
  - jaypaulynice 9y ago
    Are you saying the evidence I provide is wrong? You seriously believe the lottery is perfectly designed? That's like saying cars/airbags/computers/etc. are always perfectly designed. I found this example: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-geniuses-netted-8million-Massachusetts-state-lottery-discovering-loophole.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-ge...

197 points by peterkshultz 9y ago

I have trouble understanding how winning the lottery this often doesn't immediately raise red flags for fraud. Is there some reason that people might buy winning lottery tickets?

brunoqc 9y ago
> Is there some reason that people might buy winning lottery tickets? Money laundering maybe. It wouldn't make much sense for the seller.
aetherson 9y ago
The article suggests that people who owe back taxes or certain legal fees would have their winnings garnished. So they find a "clean" ostensible winner to claim the winnings, presumably paying him or her a smaller fee.
danso 9y ago
IIRC, from a NICAR listserv discussion with the Florida reporter, it's not that the claimed winners actually bought the tickets from the ticket dispensers. It's that the actual purchasers of the winning ticket sell it to these frequent buyers at a slight discount, so that they (the actual purchasers) don't have a financial paper trail. Not necessarily for tax purposes (the second-hand buyer would have to eventually pay for that), but for things like child support and divorce alimony. Searched through my old emails and here are a couple of excerpts (from Mower, and various other reporters responding to the thread): > "Once we zeroed in on these "prolific" winners, we discovered other bizarre patterns. They were winning from dozens of stores across multiple counties, would start their winning streaks out of the blue (versus spotty wins over a long period of time) and most were owners or clerks at places that sold tickets (we had to do that research on our own)." > A lot of tickets are second-hand, which may well be illegal and is probably often used as a dodge around child-support payments edit: In terms of why it doesn't raise red flags, it's because in most bureaucratic systems, there just aren't red flags built into databases and record-keeping. Florida is probably by far one of the best states in terms of transparent and computer/machine-readable recordkeeping, but someone has to have the initiative to do the analysis, even if it's just a simple SQL query. From an unrelated investigation from another Florida outlet about bad cops getting rehired: https://ire.org/blog/on-the-road/2011/12/20/behind-story-tracking-police/ https://ire.org/blog/on-the-road/2011/12/20/behind-story-tra... > This was a case where the government had this wonderful, informative dataset and they weren’t using it at all except to compile the information. I remember talking to one person at an office and saying: “How could you guys not know some of this? In five minutes of (SQL) queries you know everything about these officers?” They basically said it wasn't their job. That left a huge opportunity for us. edit 2: In the case of the original Florida story by the Palm Beach Post, it appears that the actual problem was that clerks were actively deceiving and stealing from the winners: http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_post_ferrets_out_florida_lottery_fraud.php http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_pos... > The stores that sell lottery tickets in Florida all have a machine that will scan a ticket and determine if it’s a winner. People who buy the tickets bring them back to stores to see if they’ve won. But they’re often relying on the store clerks to tell the truth about what the machine says. So the clerks can tell the buyer, “Hey, sorry man, better luck next time,” and then pocket the guy’s winning ticket. In other states, the problem is money laundering.
jlgaddis 9y ago
See the "real article" [0] that this one links to; it lists several. [0]: http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_part_1.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_pa...

danso 9y ago

That's funny to see this article. I remember an article about it -- also in CJR -- when the original series broke in 2014 [0]. Looks like this article, which is from today, is about other reporters taking it nationwide. Which is great. One of the more confounding things (to me) about journalism is how a great investigation in one state isn't done in another. Not by the reporting team of the first story, but by any journalist in other states, because it's easy "money", in the sense that you have a framework to copy/imitate, and if there was a corrupt system in one state, there's likely to be something similar in all the other 49 states. And it will still be "news" because of how fundamentally different state laws and bureaucracies are. But then again, sometimes newsrooms have a culture of not wanting to be seen as doing something that has been perceived to have been done, even if it was by a non-competitor (e.g. a non-Florida newspaper, in this case) Seeing investigative efforts replicated nationwide not only makes for 50 unique-in-their-own way stories, that benefit 50 different jurisdictions. You also get bonus meta-stories about states that are severe outliers, when the 50 are compared and contrasted. [0] http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_post_ferrets_out_florida_lottery_fraud.php http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/palm_beach_pos...

nrmitchi 9y ago

This post seems to be a summary of an entire series relating to 'Improbably Frequent Winners'. The first post of the actual series, which is a lot more in depth, is here: http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_part_1.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_pa...

inetknght 9y ago

I sincerely hope that the states would be willing to look at Oregon and Florida's solutions to the requests. I actually also really like the CD being issued, because it's a physical thing that you could take into court in contrast to a web page (which often isn't quite as useful these days because all of these fancy web apps) and know that it hasn't changed one iota. It'd be better if it were a usb thumb drive if it's to be a bit more modern.

jlgaddis 9y ago
When it comes to courts, you're usually dealing with printed out copies of the web pages. In most cases, that's much more convenient than dealing with an HTML page saved to disk.
kijin 9y ago
On the contrary, as someone who lives in a place where lottery winners are allowed to remain anonymous, I find it bizarre that these states are willing to give out such full information (even for winnings as small as $600) to anyone who asks, not just to law enforcement investigating potential fraud. The chance of your life getting ruined after winning the lottery is proportional (among other factors) to the number of people who know that you've suddenly landed a fortune and want a favor. I once read an article about people who continued to live normally after winning the lottery. Most of them only told a few people and tried not to draw attention. One man didn't even tell his wife until he lost his job a few years later and had to explain to her why she shouldn't be worried at all! But that's going to be impossible if the state publishes your name and the exact amount of your winnings for anyone to see. They might as well publish everyone's tax records, too, including Trump's that everyone's been asking for.

jmharvey 9y ago

It's too bad the article doesn't go in more depth. There are a few plausible explanations for why people claim an unusually high number of prizes: 1) Someone is buying a huge number of tickets, and just winning proportional to the amount that they spend. 2) Someone is a "10 percenter." They buy winning tickets at a discount to the prize amount, collect losing tickets that they didn't actually buy, and commit blatant tax fraud by claiming "losses" that offset their "winnings." 3) Someone knows which tickets are going to win before buying them. All three of these stories are interesting, but they're very different. Most coverage seems to assume (2), but stops at "tax agency is incompetent at detecting blatant tax fraud" without exploring why the tax agency is so bad at what they do.

jonas21 9y ago
They link to the actual article: http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_part_1.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_pa... It covers some of the explanations for why some people claim so many prizes: > Based on legal proceedings, lottery investigations and confessions from some frequent winners, the following techniques - or a combination of them - have generally explained how some players have defied the odds: > 1. "Theft": As in Ontario, investigators have repeatedly caught store clerks or owners stealing winning lottery tickets from prize claimants and claiming them for themselves. To allay suspicion, some have used friends or family members to cash stolen tickets on their behalf. > 2. Cheating: It's difficult to cheat the lottery, but some players have been caught "micro-scratching," a practice where a person, typically a store clerk or owner, scratches a tiny portion of an unsold scratch ticket to see if it's a winner and then claims it. > 3. "Ticket cashing" or "discounting": A practice where a person cashes in a winning ticket on someone else's behalf. Often the seller is trying to avoid having debts, like overdue child support payments, from being deducted from their winnings. Typically the winner sells their ticket to the buyer at less than its value - a "discount" - which allows the buyer to make a small profit. In some states, like Virginia, this practice is illegal. In other states, like Pennsylvania, it isn't. > 4. Money laundering: Some states have caught criminals buying winning lottery tickets from players and then cashing them for themselves. By doing so, they effectively turn "dirty money," like drug profits, into "clean money." In a well-known case, the "Black Mafia Family" purchased more than $1 million in winning Michigan lottery tickets between 1990 and 2005.

fergie 9y ago

Years ago I had a friend who's father made a living smuggling cigarettes (and probably other stuff) from Northern Africa to Gibraltar. He laundered his income by buying winning lottery tickets.

Too 9y ago
Where would one find sellers of winning lottery tickets? You must either be a store clerk or wait outside for people to cash them in?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- dragandj 9y ago
  People who are genuine winners, for example? You pay them a premium for the ticket.
  - Too 9y ago
    Yeah? Where would one find genuine winners? It's not like there's an open market for this, and since winners are random people they are unlikely to be aware of black markets. Paying them a premium is obvious.
    - quuquuquu 9y ago
      Paying them a premium is not precisely accurate. A $100,000 lottery ticket would in the US involve 30-45k in taxes for an unmarried person. So I bet it would probably sell for around $75,000 cash up front, which is a decrease from the sticker price. But if I was the winner, I would treat it as extremely shady and probably just go the legit route for almost any price. The US banking system easily detects large cash deposits under 10k even into bank accounts, and then confiscates the money. And I don't really want to keep $75,000 cash in my mattress.
      - 9y ago

romeopov 9y ago

Has anyone considered some of these people might be psychic? Professor Daryl Bem's published study "Feeling the Future" comes to mind.

gboudrias 9y ago
You're being serious? I don't mean to be overly hostile, but the implications would be world-shattering and the "mundane" explanation is quite sufficient. Also lottery-winning psychics wouldn't get caught.
- romeopov 9y ago
  The mundane explanations doesn't answer anything. It's just pure speculation. They didn't eben talk to the guy who had the most frequent wins. Why wouldn't psychics get caught?
  - pg_bot 9y ago
    ...because psychics don't exist
    - hnzix 9y ago
      I knew you were going to say that.
  - WalterBright 9y ago
    Psychics explanations don't explain anything.
  - danso 9y ago
    What is the burden of evidence you have for the mundane explanations? That is, what would they have to show to you for you to believe them beyond a reasonable doubt? Technically, every possible criminal act conceivable in our known universe could be blamed on an invisible, time-traveling Hitler.
  - csydas 9y ago

ryacko 9y ago

it's possible, some people have gotten struck by lighting over a dozen times, which in theory is as likely as winning the Powerball twice. (1 in 12,000 likelyhood of being struck over your lifetime)

everdev 9y ago
Well, the lottery is supposed to be statistically random. If you live in an area with lots of lightning and your job involves being outside up high with metal you might be at an above average risk for getting hit. People aren't supposed to have better chances of winning the lottery than the next player.
Retric 9y ago
Lightning is not 100% random as many people don't go out in storms which changes the odds.
monktastic1 9y ago
https://xkcd.com/795/ https://xkcd.com/795/
planteen 9y ago
Foolish activities, like hiking above treeline afternoon in the summer, greatly increase that risk.

MarkMc 9y ago

There is a bigger issue here: Why wasn't such an analysis done 50 years ago? Where is the incentive for people to uncover fraud? All governments should have a rule that says: if you uncover fraud or waste in a government department you get 5% of the money that taxpayers save.

yorwba 9y ago
Your proposed rule contains a great fraud opportunity: pay someone in government to "accidentally" waste money and then "uncover" it to cash out 5% of the waste.
- fnl 9y ago
  Well, if properly restricted to criminal fraud, it does make sense to me?
- MarkMc 9y ago
  That's a good point - to be honest I hadn't considered that. However, government officials already have the opportunity to 'accidentally' waste money by paying more than necessary for goods or services, then getting a kickback from the supplier. Most likely the kickback would be more than 5%.

rodrigocoelho 9y ago

Never forget João Alves, the Brazilian politician who had won part of 200 lotteries, because, as he said, "God helped me, and I made money". http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/30/world/new-government-corruption-scandal-leaves-brazil-stunned.html http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/30/world/new-government-corru...

ghostDancer 9y ago
In Spain politician Carlos Fabra won more than 2 million euros in several lotteries, now is in jail and being investigated for corruption. It's famous in Spain for that and for having built an airport that it's empty with almost no flights at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castell%C3%B3n%E2%80%93Costa_Azahar_Airport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castell%C3%B3n%E2%80%93Costa_A...

cyberferret 9y ago

Persistence might be key? Some people may be addicted to gambling with lottery tickets, or may just buy more than others in the same area. I remember once early in my IT career, I was doing work for the local government agency that was responsible for issuing all the 'scratch the ticket and find 3 matching symbols' lottery games in our state. They used to sell the tickets at the front counter of the agency office as well as various shops and newsagencies around town etc. While I was working on a PC in the manager's office, another manager came in and said that one of the games had sold ALL tickets at the other retail outlets, and that they had about a hundred $2 tickets left at their front desk and the main prize of $1000 hadn't gone off yet. When one manager left the room, the other manager looked at me and said "Well, the rules forbid us from buying those tickets, but if you have a spare couple of hundred on you, I'd buy up all those tickets at the front counter...". I thought it was all a bit weird and didn't bite, but I found out later that a friend of someone who worked there bought all the tickets, and sure enough, won the $1000 prize in that particular game. Made me wonder how many 'friends' of people who worked there were in on the old unsold ticket grey marketing? Also while growing up, there was a family that lived down the road from us who always seemed to win almost every giveaway competition in our town - free TV's, food, whitegoods, airline tickets, you name it. One day I was actually there visiting their son who was about the same age, and I noticed that their mother was entering competitions almost as a full time occupation. She would get various catalogues and our local newspaper and sit down with the kids every afternoon cutting out and sending out coupons, competition entries and sweepstakes all the time - they would have to be sending out at least 20+ per day. Way to stack the odds in their favour. They eventually left town in the most spectacular fashion - when Michael Jackson did one of his huge tours of Australia, the family won a set of tickets to see him in a sweepstakes, then promptly bought tickets for ALL of his other shows in other states in Australia! This information got leaked to the press, and Jackson found out about it, and ended up inviting this family to Neverland in the US where 2 of the kids ended up staying for years. You that old saying - you make your own luck. I think this particular family lived it.

radicalbyte 9y ago
As a parent you would have had to have been insane to leave your kids to live with MJ, not to sure I'd call it lucky. This information got leaked to the press, and Jackson found out about it, and ended up inviting this family to Neverland in the US where 2 of the kids ended up staying for years. You that old saying - you make your own luck. I think this particular family lived it.

projectant 9y ago

Clarance Jones http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequent_lottery_winner_wins_again/ http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequ... TL;DR - Audited by IRS but had 200 boxes of losing tickets & records in storage facilities, which the auditors apparently didn't want to search through. He ended up winning his defense against the state's tax claims as well. How does he win so much? Is he psychic?

quuquuquu 9y ago
Probably just caught a lucky break when they didn't want to search through the 20 boxes of duds he bought from 7/11 for less than the cost of paper ;)
- monktastic1 9y ago
  Yeah but how did he win so much? Edit: just read the article. Seems to be cashing in for others.
  - quuquuquu 9y ago
    Yup that's what I think too. Guy has a thing for lottery tickets as income. Covered his tracks by keeping thousands and thousands of non-winning tickets that he probably bought bulk for pennies per box. Feds show up and see the boxes and say "shit, this guy must have really bought 300 million bucks worth of lottery tickets!" and walk away. Pretty bad investigstion lol
    - curun1r 9y ago
      OTOH, he could be the front man for one of the lottery syndicates mentioned in: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit-students-gamed-the-lottery/470349/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit... There have been lots of groups that have made lots of money by intelligently playing specific MA lottery games at specific times, so those 300m tickets might be real.

jimhefferon 9y ago

I don't see that anyone has yet referenced this article. https://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1 https://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1 It explains how to win (an old lotto), and more importantly why there is a way to win.

eveningcoffee 9y ago
Oh wow, I did not know that: >The North American lottery system is a $70 billion-a-year business, an industry bigger than movie tickets, music, and porn combined.
js2 9y ago
Yup, also: "Lottery legend Joan Ginther bet flabbergasting sums on scratch-offs" (2014) http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/Lotterys_luckiest_woman_Joan_Ginther_bet_flabbergasting_sums_on_scratch-offs.html http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/Lotterys_luck... And: "How MIT Students Won $8 Million in the Massachusetts Lottery" (2012) http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/08/07/how-mit-students-scammed-the-massachusetts-lottery-for-8-million/ http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/08/07/how-mit-students-scammed...

cyberferret 9y ago

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these sound like professional lottery players who check odds and play the system much as they would the stock market. They probably have set systems in place and complex prediction and statistical algorithms which ensures they win just more than they lose? I am thinking that 'pro' players such as these might skew the statistic for winners to a large extent?

praptak 9y ago
I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them. A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering.
- shubb 9y ago
  Explains why 'i won it on an ico' is such an appealing explanation of wealth to some bitcoin users...
- jacquesm 9y ago
  > rare 'bugs' in the game design They may not be all that rare. > A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering. The second is definitely a factor. Even the Dutch state run casinos were/are used for this.
- lordnacho 9y ago
  > I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-geniuses-netted-8million-Massachusetts-state-lottery-discovering-loophole.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-ge... If the game is badly designed, some smart cookie will find out and exploit it.

wonderous 9y ago

Maybe their research should have also included a Google search of the statistical unusual winners name in quotes plus the state name plus Lottery winner: For example, the most winning lottery winner in America was covered by the Boston Globe in 2011: http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequent_lottery_winner_wins_again/ http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2011/11/05/frequ... [1] He's been on the radar as a ticket cashier since at least 1999 and has been getting an IRS refund for his gambling losses since 1988.

ringaroundthetx 9y ago
How does he do that? The IRS allows you to deduct up to the amount of your gambling winnings, so you wouldn't get a refund, unless the state was automatically withholding some of his winnings. There is also the possibility that he set up a company that only engages in gambling, so it can have a Net Operating Loss year over year.

aerovistae 9y ago

In the book "Ringworld," an excellent work of science fiction that inspired the setting of the Halo franchise, there is a character who was bred for luck (as though it were a genetic trait) via a birthright lottery. The reasoning was that those who won would be luckiest, and she was the descendant of 6 straight generations of birthright lottery winners. The character is impossibly lucky all the time.

cpeterso 9y ago
Intacto is a Spanish film about people who can steal other people's luck. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intacto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intacto

jaclaz 9y ago

On other news, most probably Mr. Philip Stark ( a statistician at the University of California, Berkeley): http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_math.html http://www.pennlive.com/watchdog/2017/09/defying_the_odds_ma... calculated to be implausible that on Hacker News he would be nominated by someone in a same post with the quote from the Simpsons "Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that.". Yet it just happened.

olivermarks 9y ago

Maybe a more sophisticated modern numbers game with lottery insiders colluding with 'winners'? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_game https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_game

randomfrench 9y ago

A possible rationnal explanation : In France some scratchcard are sold to merchants in packages containing a proportional number of winning cards. For example, on a lot of 100 cards, sixty are null, 20 allows you to earn five euros, 10 allows you to earn ten euros ... So the cheat is easy for a merchant (or his complices) : he just needs scratching each cards of a packages until find the maximum earnings. The others cards are sold to customers. http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2008/11/26/01016-20081126ARTFIG00526-tricherie-la-francaise-des-jeux-perd-son-proces-.php http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2008/11/26/01016-200... sfmbe

jaypaulynice 9y ago

Of course there are ways to beat the lottery. For one, ask the clerk which ticket to buy. They will gladly give you the one most people win from. Also you can study the patterns. If you buy the same ticket over and over, a streak of losing is a good idea that something big is coming (uneven distribution of the odds). Most people at this point would give up and buy a different ticket, but that's a bad strategy. A streak of winning small amounts is actually bad (proper distribution of the odds). With a little social engineering (small talks with other customers), you can gather that intelligence. Evidence of this effect: the powerball, mega millions, etc. When no one wins they balloon. When someone wins each time, they win relatively small amounts. Another mistake people make is buying different tickets instead of the same. That's why only a few people win. So much of lottery is reverse psychology.

jamiek88 9y ago
No, not reverse psychology just you seeking and seeing patterns where there are none. There isn’t a strategy you can use as an individual unless you can throw tens of millions at it to exploit basly designed games like the MIT guys did. Your sad head shaking at those falling for reverse psychology is ironic.
- jaypaulynice 9y ago
  Are you saying the evidence I provide is wrong? You seriously believe the lottery is perfectly designed? That's like saying cars/airbags/computers/etc. are always perfectly designed. I found this example: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-geniuses-netted-8million-Massachusetts-state-lottery-discovering-loophole.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183070/MIT-maths-ge...