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This New Yorker article from March provides a lot of background on Russia's "Hybrid War" strategy and its motivations: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/

This New Yorker article from March provides a lot of background on Russia's "Hybrid War" strategy and its motivations: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-and-the-new-cold-war https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-an... Reading that article left me pretty slack-jawed. It cites a 2013 article, "The Value of Science in Prediction", by Chief of General Staff of Russian Federated Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov as a canonical text behind the Russian election interference campaign. After reading the New Yorker article, I tracked down a translation of that text here: http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20160228_art008.pdf http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/... Strange to think that the Arab Spring helped function as a trigger for white nationalist marches in this country.

mirimir 9y ago
Yes, it was that New Yorker article that I was remembering. In particular, this bit: > In 1996, during a summit meeting in Moscow, Clinton went for an early-morning run with Talbott in the Sparrow Hills, near Moscow State University. Clinton had known Talbott since they were students at Oxford, and confided his anxiety. He did not regret the expansion of NATO or the decision, at last, to battle Serbian forces in Bosnia. But he knew that he was making Yeltsin’s political life excruciatingly difficult. > “We keep telling ol’ Boris, ‘O.K., now, here’s what you’ve got to do next—here’s some more shit for your face,’ ” Clinton told Talbott as they ran. “And that makes it real hard for him, given what he’s up against and who he’s dealing with.” > Earlier that year, Yeltsin had summoned Talbott. “I don’t like it when the U.S. flaunts its superiority,” he told him. “Russia’s difficulties are only temporary, and not only because we have nuclear weapons but also because of our economy, our culture, our spiritual strength. All that amounts to a legitimate, undeniable basis for equal treatment. Russia will rise again! I repeat: Russia will rise again.”
- nradov 9y ago
  And yet so far Yeltsin is still wrong: Russia's difficulties appear to be permanent. Population and life expectancy have declined. GDP growth has been low and erratic; currently their economy is smaller than Italy. They rank 131st on the worldwide corruption index. All of these problems are self inflicted.
  - mirimir 9y ago
    Maybe so. But time will tell. In any case, it's not the accuracy of the prediction that matters here. It's the motivation.
    - mirimir 9y ago
      And it's also not very charitable. It's an aspect of a mindset that perpetuates the cycle of violence. Long term, it works better for victors to be forgiving and magnanimous. But sadly enough, it's probably too late for that. Maybe about a century too late.
- tim333 9y ago
  I thought this bit was interesting: >In 2008,[...] Russian hackers accomplished a feat that Pentagon officials considered almost impossible: breaching a classified network that wasn’t even connected to the public Internet. Apparently, Russian spies had supplied cheap thumb drives, stocked with viruses, to retail kiosks near nato headquarters in Kabul, betting, correctly, that a U.S. serviceman or woman would buy one and insert it into a secure computer.
  - mirimir 9y ago
    That's interesting. Stuxnet used a very similar strategy. It was identified in 2010, but could have been in use earlier. So I wonder if the Americans/Israelis got the idea from the Russians, or vice versa. Or maybe they both got the idea from malware hackers. Or employed them ;) Maybe even the same malware hackers. That'd be a trip!
Balgair 9y ago
Where is a good place to learn about these things in the future. I'm a bit floored by all this but want to keep tabs on it all too.

mirimir 9y ago

Yes, it was that New Yorker article that I was remembering. In particular, this bit: > In 1996, during a summit meeting in Moscow, Clinton went for an early-morning run with Talbott in the Sparrow Hills, near Moscow State University. Clinton had known Talbott since they were students at Oxford, and confided his anxiety. He did not regret the expansion of NATO or the decision, at last, to battle Serbian forces in Bosnia. But he knew that he was making Yeltsin’s political life excruciatingly difficult. > “We keep telling ol’ Boris, ‘O.K., now, here’s what you’ve got to do next—here’s some more shit for your face,’ ” Clinton told Talbott as they ran. “And that makes it real hard for him, given what he’s up against and who he’s dealing with.” > Earlier that year, Yeltsin had summoned Talbott. “I don’t like it when the U.S. flaunts its superiority,” he told him. “Russia’s difficulties are only temporary, and not only because we have nuclear weapons but also because of our economy, our culture, our spiritual strength. All that amounts to a legitimate, undeniable basis for equal treatment. Russia will rise again! I repeat: Russia will rise again.”

nradov 9y ago
And yet so far Yeltsin is still wrong: Russia's difficulties appear to be permanent. Population and life expectancy have declined. GDP growth has been low and erratic; currently their economy is smaller than Italy. They rank 131st on the worldwide corruption index. All of these problems are self inflicted.
- mirimir 9y ago
  Maybe so. But time will tell. In any case, it's not the accuracy of the prediction that matters here. It's the motivation.
  - mirimir 9y ago
    And it's also not very charitable. It's an aspect of a mindset that perpetuates the cycle of violence. Long term, it works better for victors to be forgiving and magnanimous. But sadly enough, it's probably too late for that. Maybe about a century too late.
tim333 9y ago
I thought this bit was interesting: >In 2008,[...] Russian hackers accomplished a feat that Pentagon officials considered almost impossible: breaching a classified network that wasn’t even connected to the public Internet. Apparently, Russian spies had supplied cheap thumb drives, stocked with viruses, to retail kiosks near nato headquarters in Kabul, betting, correctly, that a U.S. serviceman or woman would buy one and insert it into a secure computer.
- mirimir 9y ago
  That's interesting. Stuxnet used a very similar strategy. It was identified in 2010, but could have been in use earlier. So I wonder if the Americans/Israelis got the idea from the Russians, or vice versa. Or maybe they both got the idea from malware hackers. Or employed them ;) Maybe even the same malware hackers. That'd be a trip!

Balgair 9y ago

Where is a good place to learn about these things in the future. I'm a bit floored by all this but want to keep tabs on it all too.