3 ms·

You seem to have a more liberal interpretation of "somewhat limited" than I do. I have ascribed a 45% chance to this statement, and last year bet $500 against

You seem to have a more liberal interpretation of "somewhat limited" than I do. I have ascribed a 45% chance to this statement, and last year bet $500 against it taking place: "By July 2023, a self-driving car can be reliably hailed by a member of the general public in at least 10 North American cities. At least 8 cities must be outside the San Fransisco Bay Area. The car must available on at least 50% of days, i.e., not confined to very narrow weather or traffic situations. No back-up human may be physically present to take over in an emergency." http://blog.jessriedel.com/2016/04/ http://blog.jessriedel.com/2016/04/ Would you bet on that happening by July 2022? I would take on another $500.

ilaksh 9y ago
50% of days in any city means it can handle Minnesota snow and ice. As you have stated it, implying the car can go anywhere at any time (no constraints on routes mentioned) and is available in most major cities, that's very speculative that it would be deployed to that degree. It will be deployed within a few years although with some reasonable constraints and it will be extremely useful even with those constraints. Edit: Actually, looking at that statement again, some of what I read as implied is actually just ambiguous. I would make the bet if I could correct the ambiguous parts to be more realistic.