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I doubt very much that he understands, even in the most basic terms, what any of this is about. Nor does he really care about any of it. Source: am a Russian-Am

by 0xbear 9y ago

I doubt very much that he understands, even in the most basic terms, what any of this is about. Nor does he really care about any of it. Source: am a Russian-American, with a pretty good understanding of what's going on over there.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
adventured 9y ago
It's a very fair point. Question however: is there a leader on the planet that has a greater, almost intuitive sense about threats to their position of power than Putin? Who would that be? Authoritarian survivors like him tend to have an extremely well tuned grasp of threats to their power. Whether those are technology based or people, and whether they are domestic or foreign based. The small group of people running the CCP are similarly competent at spotting such threats, regardless of their understanding of technology. Most of the politicians that have supported the great firewall over the years, very likely had a limited understanding of the technology involved. They didn't need to understand the technology at an intimate level, they understood some of what it could enable, they understood the potential threat to their power. These people develop an almost sixth sense about it, they spend their entire lives cultivating that awareness as a means of survival and promotion.
- 0xbear 9y ago
  None of this is a threat to his survival, or indeed to Russia's survival. When you have nukes and the means to deliver them anywhere on the globe in 9 minutes, you don't have to care about aggression from other countries. The biggest (and only) threat to Putin's survival is a coup.
  - adventured 9y ago
    Putin's only interest isn't just his survival though. He's a hyper nationalist Russian. There's no question he views the two as connected: in his mind what's good for Russia is good for him, what's good for him is good for Russia; that's typical of authoritarian types. That doesn't change that he's pretty big about the premise of the return of the Russian Empire in one form or another. AI as a military technology can threaten Russia. It can cripple their economy. It can cripple their military technology (depending). Over decades it will likely lead to faster advances in both the economic and military spheres (including nuclear weapons and missile defenses), which would net weaken Russia. The winner accelerates, which is exactly what happened to the US vs the USSR when it came to the massive tech economy the US built out post WW2 (now our economy is ~16x the size of Russia's).
- drewmol 9y ago
  >Question however: is there a leader on the planet that has a greater, almost intuitive sense about threats to their position of power than Putin? Who would that be? Kim Jung-un?
  - adventured 9y ago
    Maybe his father. It's a little early to see if he's a long-term survivor. In the scheme of things, he's an authoritarian infant. Not to mention, North Korea is more likely being operated by a military cabal right now than by Kim Jong-un.
    - riffraff 9y ago
      > North Korea is more likely being operated by a military cabal is there any evidence of this? This might be true, but does not seem self evident to me.
    - drewmol 9y ago
      It is, I was alluding to his intuitive understanding of the threats to his position of power. If he threatens to nuke everyone and that is an achievable and possibly believable threat, he may gain a small seat at the global negotiating table

by 0xbear 9y ago

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

adventured 9y ago

It's a very fair point. Question however: is there a leader on the planet that has a greater, almost intuitive sense about threats to their position of power than Putin? Who would that be? Authoritarian survivors like him tend to have an extremely well tuned grasp of threats to their power. Whether those are technology based or people, and whether they are domestic or foreign based. The small group of people running the CCP are similarly competent at spotting such threats, regardless of their understanding of technology. Most of the politicians that have supported the great firewall over the years, very likely had a limited understanding of the technology involved. They didn't need to understand the technology at an intimate level, they understood some of what it could enable, they understood the potential threat to their power. These people develop an almost sixth sense about it, they spend their entire lives cultivating that awareness as a means of survival and promotion.

0xbear 9y ago
None of this is a threat to his survival, or indeed to Russia's survival. When you have nukes and the means to deliver them anywhere on the globe in 9 minutes, you don't have to care about aggression from other countries. The biggest (and only) threat to Putin's survival is a coup.
- adventured 9y ago
  Putin's only interest isn't just his survival though. He's a hyper nationalist Russian. There's no question he views the two as connected: in his mind what's good for Russia is good for him, what's good for him is good for Russia; that's typical of authoritarian types. That doesn't change that he's pretty big about the premise of the return of the Russian Empire in one form or another. AI as a military technology can threaten Russia. It can cripple their economy. It can cripple their military technology (depending). Over decades it will likely lead to faster advances in both the economic and military spheres (including nuclear weapons and missile defenses), which would net weaken Russia. The winner accelerates, which is exactly what happened to the US vs the USSR when it came to the massive tech economy the US built out post WW2 (now our economy is ~16x the size of Russia's).
drewmol 9y ago
>Question however: is there a leader on the planet that has a greater, almost intuitive sense about threats to their position of power than Putin? Who would that be? Kim Jung-un?
- adventured 9y ago
  Maybe his father. It's a little early to see if he's a long-term survivor. In the scheme of things, he's an authoritarian infant. Not to mention, North Korea is more likely being operated by a military cabal right now than by Kim Jong-un.
  - riffraff 9y ago
    > North Korea is more likely being operated by a military cabal is there any evidence of this? This might be true, but does not seem self evident to me.
  - drewmol 9y ago
    It is, I was alluding to his intuitive understanding of the threats to his position of power. If he threatens to nuke everyone and that is an achievable and possibly believable threat, he may gain a small seat at the global negotiating table