I think the moral of this story is fundamental to all of academia: the sexier projects tend to rake in the grant money, even though they're less likely to succe

I think the moral of this story is fundamental to all of academia: the sexier projects tend to rake in the grant money, even though they're less likely to succeed. The advisor didn't tell your buddy to do that project because he expected it to work, he told him to do it because he was seduced by the potential publishability of the result. I see a lot of these burnout stories are about PhDs, and I've been there. The key to getting out is frequently to stop listening to your advisors. You're ready to graduate when you tell them what you're doing, not the other way around.