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I’d been happy if we could just get commercial supersonic flight back. NASA is working on quiet supersonic, which will hopefully do the trick: https://www.ext

I’d been happy if we could just get commercial supersonic flight back. NASA is working on quiet supersonic, which will hopefully do the trick: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/251718-nasas-quieter-supersonic-plane-project-soon-take-flight https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/251718-nasas-quieter-sup...

ghaff 9y ago
I'm all for doing engine research. But the economics seem pretty clear that if you can't afford to routinely fly in luxury first class suites on 787s, you probably wouldn't be able to afford to fly in a supersonic jet either. (Which means that it's unlikely anyone would build one given that there are barely any all-business class large jets today.)
- hyperbovine 9y ago
  Suddenly that plane hauls 2000 people a day instead of 500.
  - iraklism 9y ago
    You will have to factor in the 4x associated costs as well (fuel, maintenance , flight crew, airport costs, etc). I have 0% knowledge on commercial flight OPEX, but at first glance it doesn't sound as simple.
    - motoboi 9y ago
      The less time on the ground, more money a company makes. This probably is true on the air too, granted that you have a similar efficiency and fuel combustion.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    A supersonic jet is almost certainly going to be (much) smaller than a widebody subsonic passenger aircraft. Furthermore, you probably wouldn't need to make the seating super-luxurious but people paying premium prices are still going to expect at least the level of seating and service you get in domestic US business.
  - TylerE 9y ago
    Doesn't really work like that. There are substantial dwell times in the cycle that no amount of enroute speed can elimanate... Unload the passengers Unload the luggage Clean the cabin Load the next set of passengers Load the luggage Taxi to the runway...
- melling 9y ago
  Hey, while we’re making up economic data, let me take a crack at it. Business class is usually full when I fly. When I flew to South Africa this year (15 hours direct) from JFK, I asked if first class always sells out, and I got a chuckle and a yes. So, I believe there is a sufficiently large market for supersonic flight. However, you need to be able to fly supersonic over land.
  - valuearb 9y ago
    Lots of people in business class and first class are frequent fliers on upgrades. The number of people paying full fare is relatively small proportion.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    You'll find many of those higher class seats are filled by frequent flyers on upgrades. Business is almost always full because there are more frequent flyers who bought economy who are eligible for upgrades (or want to use their own mileage to upgrade) than there are left over business class seats.
    - cperciva 9y ago
      Flights in the 8 hour range, sure. But Air Canada's ~15 hour Vancouver-Australia flights are notorious for never having any upgrade space available. I'm guessing that new supersonic jets will be taking the (formerly) 16 hour routes first.
      - ghaff 9y ago
        YMMV, I guess. I can get upgrades using miles pretty routinely from US East Coast to Asia. The other challenge with those sorts of routes though is that you also need a lot more range than the Concorde had. Its range was around 3500 to 4500 miles depending on various factors.
        melling 9y ago
        There have been a number of studies on the viability of commercial supersonic flight. https://niskanencenter.org/blog/supersonic-overland/ https://niskanencenter.org/blog/supersonic-overland/ While your anecdotal experience may have formed your opinion, others have taken a deeper look into the problem. [Update] You should read the section on economic myths: http://www.supersonicmyths.com/#supersonic-myths http://www.supersonicmyths.com/#supersonic-myths “Everyone stands to benefit from supersonic transport. Nonetheless, early technological adoption among a luxury or business class of consumers is a recurrent phenomenon in the spread of innovation. As Everett M. Rogers showed in his seminal work, Diffusion of Innovation, early adopters are often willing to pay a high initial price for a new product due to greater resources and the pursuit of social status. From there, firms reinvest profits in product design and use the benefits of volume and scale to introduce subsequent product versions with more and more mass market appeal. This is how cell phones went from a luxury used by Wall Street's Gordon Gecko to being in the pockets of poor farmers in Africa. It's also the strategy Tesla Motors is using to mainstream affordable electric vehicles.”
valuearb 9y ago
I think the most likely next step is supersonic business jets. That market can afford the cost much easier than commercial airlines, and there appear to be companies who are making significant progress towards building them. https://boomsupersonic.com https://boomsupersonic.com
- melling 9y ago
  They already have 76 orders: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/virgin-supersonic-travel http://www.wired.co.uk/article/virgin-supersonic-travel

ghaff 9y ago

I'm all for doing engine research. But the economics seem pretty clear that if you can't afford to routinely fly in luxury first class suites on 787s, you probably wouldn't be able to afford to fly in a supersonic jet either. (Which means that it's unlikely anyone would build one given that there are barely any all-business class large jets today.)

hyperbovine 9y ago
Suddenly that plane hauls 2000 people a day instead of 500.
- iraklism 9y ago
  You will have to factor in the 4x associated costs as well (fuel, maintenance , flight crew, airport costs, etc). I have 0% knowledge on commercial flight OPEX, but at first glance it doesn't sound as simple.
  - motoboi 9y ago
    The less time on the ground, more money a company makes. This probably is true on the air too, granted that you have a similar efficiency and fuel combustion.
- ghaff 9y ago
  A supersonic jet is almost certainly going to be (much) smaller than a widebody subsonic passenger aircraft. Furthermore, you probably wouldn't need to make the seating super-luxurious but people paying premium prices are still going to expect at least the level of seating and service you get in domestic US business.
- TylerE 9y ago
  Doesn't really work like that. There are substantial dwell times in the cycle that no amount of enroute speed can elimanate... Unload the passengers Unload the luggage Clean the cabin Load the next set of passengers Load the luggage Taxi to the runway...
melling 9y ago
Hey, while we’re making up economic data, let me take a crack at it. Business class is usually full when I fly. When I flew to South Africa this year (15 hours direct) from JFK, I asked if first class always sells out, and I got a chuckle and a yes. So, I believe there is a sufficiently large market for supersonic flight. However, you need to be able to fly supersonic over land.
- valuearb 9y ago
  Lots of people in business class and first class are frequent fliers on upgrades. The number of people paying full fare is relatively small proportion.
- ghaff 9y ago
  You'll find many of those higher class seats are filled by frequent flyers on upgrades. Business is almost always full because there are more frequent flyers who bought economy who are eligible for upgrades (or want to use their own mileage to upgrade) than there are left over business class seats.
  - cperciva 9y ago
    Flights in the 8 hour range, sure. But Air Canada's ~15 hour Vancouver-Australia flights are notorious for never having any upgrade space available. I'm guessing that new supersonic jets will be taking the (formerly) 16 hour routes first.
    - ghaff 9y ago
      YMMV, I guess. I can get upgrades using miles pretty routinely from US East Coast to Asia. The other challenge with those sorts of routes though is that you also need a lot more range than the Concorde had. Its range was around 3500 to 4500 miles depending on various factors.
      - melling 9y ago
        There have been a number of studies on the viability of commercial supersonic flight. https://niskanencenter.org/blog/supersonic-overland/ https://niskanencenter.org/blog/supersonic-overland/ While your anecdotal experience may have formed your opinion, others have taken a deeper look into the problem. [Update] You should read the section on economic myths: http://www.supersonicmyths.com/#supersonic-myths http://www.supersonicmyths.com/#supersonic-myths “Everyone stands to benefit from supersonic transport. Nonetheless, early technological adoption among a luxury or business class of consumers is a recurrent phenomenon in the spread of innovation. As Everett M. Rogers showed in his seminal work, Diffusion of Innovation, early adopters are often willing to pay a high initial price for a new product due to greater resources and the pursuit of social status. From there, firms reinvest profits in product design and use the benefits of volume and scale to introduce subsequent product versions with more and more mass market appeal. This is how cell phones went from a luxury used by Wall Street's Gordon Gecko to being in the pockets of poor farmers in Africa. It's also the strategy Tesla Motors is using to mainstream affordable electric vehicles.”

valuearb 9y ago

I think the most likely next step is supersonic business jets. That market can afford the cost much easier than commercial airlines, and there appear to be companies who are making significant progress towards building them. https://boomsupersonic.com https://boomsupersonic.com

melling 9y ago
They already have 76 orders: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/virgin-supersonic-travel http://www.wired.co.uk/article/virgin-supersonic-travel