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> "Court documents indicate that Google paid Apple $1B in 2014, and we estimate that total Google payments to Apple in FY 17 may approach $3B," Bernstein analys

> "Court documents indicate that Google paid Apple $1B in 2014, and we estimate that total Google payments to Apple in FY 17 may approach $3B," Bernstein analyst A.M. Sacconaghi Jr. said. "Given that Google payments are nearly all profit for Apple, Google alone may account for 5% of Apple's total operating profits this year, and may account for 25% of total company OP growth over the last two years." It's crazy considering even if Apple switched default search engines I'm sure a lot of users would switch back to Google.

HillaryBriss 9y ago
for a rough assessment of this, we might compare it to the situation with Apple maps. In 2015, it was reported that "Apple ... receives 5 billion requests per week for its mapping services and that Apple Maps is used 3.5 times more frequently than ... Google Maps." http://fortune.com/2015/06/16/apple-google-maps-ios/ http://fortune.com/2015/06/16/apple-google-maps-ios/ and iOS users are the wealthy layer of the mobile marketplace. they're the cream. google doesn't want to lose them.
loceng 9y ago
Would they though? I would and perhaps many on HN, though HN demographic isn't the norm.
- 27182818284 9y ago
  Google undoubtedly has some metrics on this which is why they do it. Other firms are the same way, right? For example, Yahoo and Firefox.
  - myusernameisok 9y ago
    Yes, I'm sure Google has analyzed this. I'm just saying it's fairly surprising considering that $3 billion hinges entirely on the assumption that people won't change the default. Apparently there are approximately 700 million active iPhones in the world [1], so Google is willing to bet $4 per user on that assumption. I'm not saying it's a bad assumption. [1] http://www.siliconbeat.com/2017/03/06/many-iphones-use-analyst-estimates-715-million-counting/ http://www.siliconbeat.com/2017/03/06/many-iphones-use-analy...
wnissen 9y ago
Several months after Apple Maps became the default, something like 2/3rds of all users switched away from Google Maps. It's hard for me to believe, since the Apple Maps are more attractive but still less useful, but those are the numbers. I wouldn't count on a big return to Google Search.
- muninn_ 9y ago
  I'm one of those people. For me it's about privacy, and that Apple Maps is just good enough. In my daily use I found that Google and Apple both screwed me up in the same ways (not nothing a road was closed, etc...). Google Maps is probably better overall, but I'm just speaking from my experience.
  - RodericDay 9y ago
    It's just incredible that a completely pedestrian comment like this one is downvoted. This place is just crawling with Google cultists.
  - Nerdfest 9y ago
    Seems to me that Google has a better privacy record than Apple. Both companies get all sorts of data about their users, but Apple has had some serious data breaches.
    - Mister_Snuggles 9y ago
      Do you have any examples of these? Were they a case of Apple as a whole getting breached (e.g., all hashed iCloud passwords) or individual accounts? I use Apple services for quite a few things, so whenever I hear about a data breach I evaluate how I use the service and how I can guard against similar breaches that might affect my data. EDIT: I should point out that this applies to other services that I use as well. This is something everyone who relies on a 3rd party service should keep an eye on as a matter of course.
      - macintux 9y ago
Eridrus 9y ago
Would they though? It would be interesting to find out how many users switched back to Google after Yahoo paid Firefox to switch the default for new installs. Apple would probably look at how much they could get from Bing for the privilege before building their own search engine.
- tyingq 9y ago
  > It would be interesting to find out how many users switched back to Google after Yahoo paid Firefox to switch the default for new installs. Many, but the net effect was still positive for Yahoo. http://searchengineland.com/yahoos-firefox-deal-tells-us-paid-search-2015-212151 http://searchengineland.com/yahoos-firefox-deal-tells-us-pai...
  - Eridrus 9y ago
    Cool, so from Google's perspective this is probably an absolute best case scenario: Firefox users tend to be more savvy than iOS users, and Yahoo still claimed at least 25% of users. So, 3bn is peanuts for 25% of mobile ad revenue, which for google is 50bn/yr. Apple would probably have to raise the price several times over before Google starts questioning this relationship.
amelius 9y ago
Remember the browser ballot screen? I think at some point we'll see something similar for search engines.
tryingagainbro 9y ago
It's crazy considering even if Apple switched default search engines I'm sure a lot of users would switch back to Google. You are sure...but Google is placing a $3,000,000,000 bet against your word. Maybe they're losing money the deal to moat their castle, but who knows. As a side note: If the government worked correctly, Google would not have been allowed to buy market share, monopoly and all.
- runeks 9y ago
  > As a side note: If the government worked correctly, Google would not have been allowed to buy market share, monopoly and all. Do you also think government should prevent Google from paying Mozilla to be the default search engine in Firefox?
  - tryingagainbro 9y ago
    > Do you also think government should prevent Google from paying Mozilla to be the default search engine in Firefox? Yes I do. And for the same reason I'd oppose Verizon or ATT buying everyone else.
- johnsmith21006 9y ago
  I suspect Google wants to keep it away from MS more than anything. With Bing down to 2.5% market share they do not have the revs to invest. That is why Bing is so bad compared to Google on mobile. http://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share http://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share Search engine market share Worldwide | StatCounter Global Stats
whipoodle 9y ago
I mean, I definitely would, but whoever they switched to (probably Bing) would just have to recognize that the request came from an iPhone and style it to look minimally different from what people are used to seeing. I think a lot of people wouldn't notice or care.
throwaway287391 9y ago
Even if you're right in assuming that a lot of users would switch back, I'd guess that the type of user Google really wants to avoid losing -- one who clicks on a lot of ads -- is the same type of user who never changes default settings.

HillaryBriss 9y ago

for a rough assessment of this, we might compare it to the situation with Apple maps. In 2015, it was reported that "Apple ... receives 5 billion requests per week for its mapping services and that Apple Maps is used 3.5 times more frequently than ... Google Maps." http://fortune.com/2015/06/16/apple-google-maps-ios/ http://fortune.com/2015/06/16/apple-google-maps-ios/ and iOS users are the wealthy layer of the mobile marketplace. they're the cream. google doesn't want to lose them.

loceng 9y ago

Would they though? I would and perhaps many on HN, though HN demographic isn't the norm.

27182818284 9y ago
Google undoubtedly has some metrics on this which is why they do it. Other firms are the same way, right? For example, Yahoo and Firefox.
- myusernameisok 9y ago
  Yes, I'm sure Google has analyzed this. I'm just saying it's fairly surprising considering that $3 billion hinges entirely on the assumption that people won't change the default. Apparently there are approximately 700 million active iPhones in the world [1], so Google is willing to bet $4 per user on that assumption. I'm not saying it's a bad assumption. [1] http://www.siliconbeat.com/2017/03/06/many-iphones-use-analyst-estimates-715-million-counting/ http://www.siliconbeat.com/2017/03/06/many-iphones-use-analy...

wnissen 9y ago

Several months after Apple Maps became the default, something like 2/3rds of all users switched away from Google Maps. It's hard for me to believe, since the Apple Maps are more attractive but still less useful, but those are the numbers. I wouldn't count on a big return to Google Search.

muninn_ 9y ago
I'm one of those people. For me it's about privacy, and that Apple Maps is just good enough. In my daily use I found that Google and Apple both screwed me up in the same ways (not nothing a road was closed, etc...). Google Maps is probably better overall, but I'm just speaking from my experience.
- RodericDay 9y ago
  It's just incredible that a completely pedestrian comment like this one is downvoted. This place is just crawling with Google cultists.
- Nerdfest 9y ago
  Seems to me that Google has a better privacy record than Apple. Both companies get all sorts of data about their users, but Apple has had some serious data breaches.
  - Mister_Snuggles 9y ago
    Do you have any examples of these? Were they a case of Apple as a whole getting breached (e.g., all hashed iCloud passwords) or individual accounts? I use Apple services for quite a few things, so whenever I hear about a data breach I evaluate how I use the service and how I can guard against similar breaches that might affect my data. EDIT: I should point out that this applies to other services that I use as well. This is something everyone who relies on a 3rd party service should keep an eye on as a matter of course.
    - macintux 9y ago

Eridrus 9y ago

Would they though? It would be interesting to find out how many users switched back to Google after Yahoo paid Firefox to switch the default for new installs. Apple would probably look at how much they could get from Bing for the privilege before building their own search engine.

tyingq 9y ago
> It would be interesting to find out how many users switched back to Google after Yahoo paid Firefox to switch the default for new installs. Many, but the net effect was still positive for Yahoo. http://searchengineland.com/yahoos-firefox-deal-tells-us-paid-search-2015-212151 http://searchengineland.com/yahoos-firefox-deal-tells-us-pai...
- Eridrus 9y ago
  Cool, so from Google's perspective this is probably an absolute best case scenario: Firefox users tend to be more savvy than iOS users, and Yahoo still claimed at least 25% of users. So, 3bn is peanuts for 25% of mobile ad revenue, which for google is 50bn/yr. Apple would probably have to raise the price several times over before Google starts questioning this relationship.

amelius 9y ago

Remember the browser ballot screen? I think at some point we'll see something similar for search engines.

tryingagainbro 9y ago

It's crazy considering even if Apple switched default search engines I'm sure a lot of users would switch back to Google. You are sure...but Google is placing a $3,000,000,000 bet against your word. Maybe they're losing money the deal to moat their castle, but who knows. As a side note: If the government worked correctly, Google would not have been allowed to buy market share, monopoly and all.

runeks 9y ago
> As a side note: If the government worked correctly, Google would not have been allowed to buy market share, monopoly and all. Do you also think government should prevent Google from paying Mozilla to be the default search engine in Firefox?
- tryingagainbro 9y ago
  > Do you also think government should prevent Google from paying Mozilla to be the default search engine in Firefox? Yes I do. And for the same reason I'd oppose Verizon or ATT buying everyone else.
johnsmith21006 9y ago
I suspect Google wants to keep it away from MS more than anything. With Bing down to 2.5% market share they do not have the revs to invest. That is why Bing is so bad compared to Google on mobile. http://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share http://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share Search engine market share Worldwide | StatCounter Global Stats

whipoodle 9y ago

I mean, I definitely would, but whoever they switched to (probably Bing) would just have to recognize that the request came from an iPhone and style it to look minimally different from what people are used to seeing. I think a lot of people wouldn't notice or care.

throwaway287391 9y ago

Even if you're right in assuming that a lot of users would switch back, I'd guess that the type of user Google really wants to avoid losing -- one who clicks on a lot of ads -- is the same type of user who never changes default settings.