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Show HN: Short-term rental estimate for sites like Airbnb
- nick-cortes 9y agoCurious to see how it relates to the mortgage of some houses.
- ChuckMcM 9y agoI did a quick check in the Sunnyvale area, a $2M mortgage on a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath house that can sleep 6 at $2700 a week is about the same as a mortgage. (note you'd insurance, pay taxes on the house, and have more expensive maintenance) So bottom line you'd lose money on the deal.
- 80211 9y agoThe taxes would be more than the mortgage.
- jdmichal 9y agoI have the understanding that no one expects residential real estate rental to be cash-flow positive with a full mortgage. It's extremely rare and basically a complete no-brainer if you can find a property that is cash-flow positive with a mortgage. Generally, one looks at equity and tries for net-worth positive. Which is simple to say, but is made more complex by older mortgages giving more equity for an equal payment. Of course, with an interest-only mortgage, yes one would need to be cash-flow positive, because there is no such thing as gaining equity. Again, my understanding is that such properties are extremely rare.
- briandear 9y agoIf you're investing in real estate you always want a mortgage and you always want it cash-flow positive. If it's not cash-flow positive on the first day of renting it out, then you don't buy the property. Investing for equity is about the dumbest mistake some real estate investors make. Always invest on cash-flow. Investing for capital appreciation is a recipe for disaster. With positive cash-flow, the underlying value is irrelevant. When I say you "always want a mortgage" I mean that if you have a mortgage you have your tenants paying for the house. Your cash on cash return is far higher. If your potential property doesn't support that, then find another property. Paying $200k cash for a house that nets $500 per month is far less interesting than buying 10 houses at $20k down that each net $200 per month -- and it takes exactly the same cash.
- ftlio 9y agoThe overhead of renting 10 houses, and the interest on 10 mortgages, is just zero or what?
- jdmichal 9y agoI don't disagree with you. I was speaking solely about full mortgage -- ie, minimum down payment. Turning a positive cash flow with a large mortgage is very difficult, especially after accounting for all costs. (Mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance, hoa, vacancy...) Turning a positive cash flow without any mortgage is very easy, but kills your ROI. So you're going to end up shooting somewhere in the middle... EDIT: Here's a fun Reddit thread on the topic: https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/36ikp6/landlords_how_many_of_your_rental_properties_are/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/36ikp6/landlord... Here's an example from that thread on how quickly the math takes you to roughly cash-flow neutral -- and this is with 25% down and 1% rental price: https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/36ikp6/landlords_how_many_of_your_rental_properties_are/crf9n7n/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/36ikp6/landlord...
- sundvor 9y agoBefore going straight for the mortgage repayment question, I wonder how many take up proper insurances to cover worst case scenarios (i.e. property getting fully trashed in a drug/alcohol binge party scenario) - and how much they cost.
- Sleeep 9y agoI agree with you, however, I just want to point out that a completely destroyed house in a drug binge orgy party isn't even close to the worse case scenario, at least then you can "only" lose 100% of the value of your physical property, maybe ~$300,000. The worse case scenario is someone getting seriously hurt or dying, that could cost millions and has virtually no upper limit - https://medium.com/matter/living-and-dying-on-airbnb-6bff8d600c04 https://medium.com/matter/living-and-dying-on-airbnb-6bff8d6...
- sundvor 9y agoAh, you're completely right - great point. What a horrible story. :(
- k3oni 9y agoFor a property appraised at 400k a short term vacation policy would cost you ~$2100/year .
- Sleeep 9y agoThe PITI on my house is $1,250 ($750 P+I) with a 20% down payment at a 30 year fixed interest loan. I use about $200/month in utilities. This site says I can rent my entire house out for $210 a day so, in theory, renting it for seven days would pay for the housing costs ignoring any increase in insurance and utilities for turning it into a short term rental and totally ignoring maintenance and labor. (which, obviously, is a significant cost) Realistically I wouldn't be cash flow positive until day nine at least. However, I think that's unrealistic, I believe the demand for my house would be extremely low at that price point. My house is very appealing for residents, I don't see it being particularly appealing for travelers and there's cheaper options for travelers. My neighborhood is zoned residential, however, so I seriously doubt turning it into a hotel would be legal. My neighbors would complain as well (and that's nothing against them)
- k3oni 9y agoHere's a google spreadsheet[1] that i used a few times. This will give you a general idea of where you would be based on mortgage etc, but you need to know the area, possible daily rent value, minimum occupancy etc [1] - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rCz54o_8Z_9fMkPQyTTZijdN8BgOUi0aLXWqZXbflLU/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rCz54o_8Z_9fMkPQyTTZ...
- buf 9y agoI found this to be really inaccurate. I've been a host of an Airbnb for a few years. I've slowly moved my price up until I hit the maximum 70£/day. I have hundreds of positive reviews. The price the website suggested was 120£. I then went in to put an obscure address where there is no demand, and the price was $140/day. I've rented a hotel in the area for $30/day.
- overcast 9y ago$30? Where is such a place, Siberia?
- ryanong 9y agoAsheville, NC
- edouard1234567 9y agoPrices on Airbnb seem close to the estimate : https://www.airbnb.com/s/Asheville--NC--United-States/homes?allow_override%5B%5D=&s_tag=ZLx53ThM https://www.airbnb.com/s/Asheville--NC--United-States/homes?...
- davidw 9y agoI thought that area was actually pretty popular with outdoorsy people.
- mapster 9y agoimho its age related. retirees and seniors touring Ashville prefer more private and secure hotel accommodations.
- Mediterraneo10 9y agoThere are plenty of AirBnB places in fairly touristed places in the developing world for 15-20€/day.
- 9y ago
- Fuzzwah 9y agoHobart, Australia: the estimate from this page for 1 week of renting, would cover a monthly of an interest only mortgage.
- samwillis 9y agoWhen I have looked into it before, that's more or less what you would expect. 1 week holiday let = covers mortgage for month. It's almost exactly that (within 10%) for the estimate of my house.
- Sleeep 9y agoThere is a big difference between a regular mortgage and an interest only mortgage.
- asdf33323 9y agoawesome! well done.
- jimmyrocks 9y agoThis could also be used when looking for an Airbnb. You could use it to get a rough price estimate in an area near your destination.
- ramphastidae 9y agoLooks great. Consider adding dishwasher and washer/dryer as factors too — I found those made a big difference (20%+) when doing my own comps research.
- philpee2 9y agoAirbnb already supports this https://www.airbnb.com/host/homes https://www.airbnb.com/host/homes
- vm 9y agoThat's a city-level estimate. OP provides estimates based on your actual address.
- akcreek 9y agoGave me the exact same rate for my current apartment (1600sq ft Capitol Hill Seattle) and my previous condo (1100 sq ft NuLu Louisville, KY). My rent here is 3.5x what my mortgage was in Louisville and from personal experience in both places the demand for short term rentals in Louisville is nothing like it is in Seattle. So yeah... probably not accurate for the addresses I checked.
- irq11 9y agoor maybe you overpaid for your apartment. it's not uncommon in cities on the west coast for prices to irrationally exceed the possible rental income.
- akcreek 9y agoI should have better specified... the rate per night makes sense for the place in Seattle, but is way overpriced for the place in Louisville.
- drcongo 9y agoApparently Trump could get $1,150 per week letting out the White House.
- mi100hael 9y agoWell, it is a real dump.
- edouard1234567 9y agoI guess this won't be enough to balance the budget.
- arkitaip 9y ago"White House, Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC, United States 2 bedrooms 1 bathroom 4 people" Huh, I've always thought the WH was bigger than that.
- milcron 9y agoI think that's just the east wing.
- kbutler 9y agoIt's the other people in the house...
- borne0 9y agoquestion for people who use airbnb: If you've had a good experience with a host and you're going back to the area would you bother booking through Airbnb or just contact the host directly?
- grandalf 9y agoI'd go through airbnb again unless i really expected to stay there frequently. Dispute mitigation cuts both ways.
- toomuchtodo 9y agoIf I'm going to stay more than a week or two, or more than once or twice, I cut out AirBnB and contract/pay directly with the host.
- aorloff 9y agoI'm a host and send people back through Airbnb anyway. The fees they charge are minor compared to the insurance and ease of use. Plus you want the reviews from those repeat customers.
- itsrishi 9y agoI know some superhosts who use airdna.co to find new properties to invest in and price listings. It's not free though.
- muninn_ 9y agoCool idea, very inaccurate.
- edouard1234567 9y agoDo you have an example?
- dmoy 9y agoWell for one, it lists my house as having the wrong number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and then proceeds to give an inaccurate number for rents in the area if you actually go look at Airbnb.
- muninn_ 9y agoYes. Where I live it would be impossible to rent this place for 6 nights/week at $138/night.
- thyselius 9y agoQuite accurate estimate on our apartment in Stockholm, Sweden (we rent out sometimes at a slightly higher price than estimated)
- yellow_postit 9y agoHow is this "Artificial Intelligence" (from the about page: https://www.eliotandme.com/about https://www.eliotandme.com/about)?
- dgut 9y agoFor some, AI is just another buzzword. :/
- jdlyga 9y agoIf only it was legal in my state!
- edouard1234567 9y agoFor everyone wondering how much the White House could rent for on Airbnb (132 bedrooms/35 bathrooms). $157,920/week https://www.eliotandme.com/estimator?address=white+house%20&bath=35&bed=132&room_type=entire_place&sleeps=264 https://www.eliotandme.com/estimator?address=white+house%20&...
- Retric 9y agoLincoln bedroom @ https://whitehouse.gov1.info/visit/index.html https://whitehouse.gov1.info/visit/index.html 400$ / night. So 7 * 400 * 132 = 369,000 / week. Making that's a hefty bulk discount ;-) PS: And yes this is a parody.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- joshvm 9y agoThe statement is brilliant, I wonder how they could put that up with a straight face: > We regret to announce that the "White House Overnight Guest Program" will no longer continue under the Trump Administration due to the repeal of the Obama Administration's openness and transparency doctrine. You are welcome, however, to make a reservation to stay at the 5-star Trump International Hotel just down the street. The $400 a night is per double occupancy though, so really it's only $200 per head. EDIT: Ok, it's a parody. Shame! :(
- kchoudhu 9y agoThere's no way a 4BR/3B house in Las Vegas (Summerlin, to be exact) is going for 1500 a week. Nice try, though.
- Sleeep 9y agoForgive my ignorance but is that too high or too low?
- kchoudhu 9y agoWaaaaay too high. Probably by an order of magnitude.
- afterburner 9y agoReally? For a week? 4 bedrooms potentially sleeps 8 people.
- k3oni 9y ago4 bedrooms can sleep more than 8 people. More like 12 possibly. All that matters is the beds layout and your willingness so try and max the sleeping area. This is from experience.
- kchoudhu 9y agoThe intention is to extract value from your unoccupied home without irritating the neighbors/running a tenement.
- matthewmacleod 9y agoYou would find a 4 bedroom property in Las Vegas for $25 a night? Sign me up. Where are you getting that from? The price seems totally in line with what’s actually advertised for properties on Airbnb. I don’t know anything about Las Vegas rentals though.
- sdubois 9y ago
- soulnothing 9y agoFor my own reference point in Wilmington DE. It was saying daily 130 for home, 55 for room. I rented out rooms at 15$ a night. I was constantly told I was overpriced for the area. Despite providing free weekend breakfast, and Friday night dinners.
- sdubois 9y ago$15/night sounds really cheap! $55 for a private room seems reasonable compared to what's on Airbnb: https://www.airbnb.com/s/Wilmington-de/homes?guests=1&adults=1&pets=false&allow_override%5B%5D=&room_types%5B%5D=Private%20room https://www.airbnb.com/s/Wilmington-de/homes?guests=1&adults...
- lwansbrough 9y agoShouldn't it be EliotAndI.com?
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- quuquuquu 9y agoMost likely yes, but that didn't stop 23andme.com haha :) It is interesting how language morphs over time. Some people will be quite opposed to grammatical errors taking root. But language has a tendency to not only accept those errors as dual-truths, but eventually replace those errors as sole truths! This is to the point where "you and I" sounds stunted, overly formal and archaic, compared to "you and me", in my opinion.
- tspike 9y ago"He gave it to Eliot and me," is correct. "Eliot and me gave it to him," is not. "He gave it to Eliot and I," would be an example of hypercorrection.
- tspike 9y agoDepends. Is it a subject or an object?
- zeep 9y agoIs that how much you could get if you are aiming to getting close to 100% occupancy?
- Brendinooo 9y agoHow is my data being used here? Not super comfortable giving my address and then giving information about the house when there's no information about how the data is being handled/stored.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- dogan 9y agoSeems accurate, might be better to consider current rating, amenities, etc.
- m-j-fox 9y agoIt seems like I could get more for my rental on bbro, if it was 100% occupied. It would be helpful to know occupancy stats and average length of stay to estimate turn-around costs.
- aguynamedben 9y agoNice, I like this a lot. I'm curious: How did you get the event data? It's really accurate a clean for San Francisco (Dreamforce, Fleet Week, etc.)
- sisyphusprotege 9y agoIf I could get the bank financing, I could buy 5 properties in the market I am in and all would generate 25% cash on cash returns after a few months of renovations. With the scale I could hire full time staff and centralize laundry. And before anyone jumps down my throat for this, it would be a social good in this particular market and help the local housing market (there is a surplus of housing and ample very affordable housing, the problem here is lack of jobs) And if anyone thinks this would be a soft option, it would be a lot of work and a lot of responsibility and a lot of value added.
- iDemonix 9y agoIt's a nice idea, and your UI is nice, but I hate the name as it's very forgettable and using it against my parents Airbnb cottage, and a friends flat, it is wildly inaccurate.
- 010001001010 9y agoThis is brilliant, for commercial Airbnb operators. Depending on who you are that might be good or bad, but I won't wade into the debate :) I did a more basic analysis when looking at the most profitable Airbnb cities a few months back: https://www.travelstatsman.com/06022017/cities-airbnb-hosts-make-money/ https://www.travelstatsman.com/06022017/cities-airbnb-hosts-...
- xspade 9y agoI'd add a privacy policy. I didn't want to enter my real address since I didn't know what could be done with my address. I know your intentions are not nefarious, but a simple blurb around what you do w/ collected data would be nice.