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Any (non-tesla?) source? Model S has only existed for nine years. Also, the life-time of a car that needs a $20.000+ battery replacement will obviously prematu

by tjoff 9y ago

Any (non-tesla?) source? Model S has only existed for nine years. Also, the life-time of a car that needs a $20.000+ battery replacement will obviously prematurely make the car utterly worthless. Usage and weather most certainly have a huge impact as well. Don't get me wrong, I'm interested in a used model 3 when that time comes. But that hinges on that you can replace the battery for a reasonable cost, reasonable even for an older car.

anovikov 9y ago
It only existed for 7 years, but some small fraction of cars are driven much more than others. Typical lifetime of a car is 15 years, so why are you surprised that some are driven 2x more than average? Of course there are many such cars, maybe whole 1% of those made in the first year - hundreds of them. That is not an extreme, one in a million case - one in a million case looks like this: http://www.tilburyautosales.com/used/Ford/2014-Ford-F-250-2db5bf890a0e08be46daa3c72ac02cd9.htm http://www.tilburyautosales.com/used/Ford/2014-Ford-F-250-2d... No, Teslas will never need battery replacement. Contrary, batteries outlive cars severalfold (yes they can be bricked by grossly violating their usage rules in a way BMS can't prevent, but this is not wear and tear - it is equally easy to do with a brand new or 10 year old car - that's approximately an equivalent of what happens if you fill a gasoline car with diesel). With a normal averagely intense usage and a good driver, a battery will last 40-50 years which is much, much more than it makes sense to keep using a car itself.
- tjoff 9y ago
  https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Tesla-Model-S-battery-and-will-there-be-a-replacement-plan-of-some-sort https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Tesla-M... "Tesla Tech Talk (06/13) - Speaker's main points: 1) battery degrades everyday 2) battery degradation is non-linear over time; meaning it starts very very slow, but after 4-5 years, it gets faster 3) after the first 5 years, degradation may be as low as 5%. But by the 8th year, they expect about 30% degradation." Batteries will without any doubt seriously affect second hand markets for EVs. Especially when considering cold climates and the fact that the range can be quite limiting even when the battery is brand new.
  - anovikov 9y ago
    https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/?preview_id=30473 https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/?pr... from the same page in 2013, there was no data to tell what happens after 8 years of typical use, first Model S was just a year old by then and even more intensely used ones didn't have that much use - 8 years of normal use equivalent. Now there are many of those that were driven beyond median lifetime of a vehicle.
    - tjoff 9y ago
      I have no idea what to make of the claim that no further degradation is expected. It's not like batteries are a new not understood technology, batteries don't behave like that. Is that an ad? It is expected for the capacity to drop off significantly with age. The main weapon tesla has used against this is good cooling and sensible charging patterns, but that is just stalling the inevitable.

by tjoff 9y ago

anovikov 9y ago

It only existed for 7 years, but some small fraction of cars are driven much more than others. Typical lifetime of a car is 15 years, so why are you surprised that some are driven 2x more than average? Of course there are many such cars, maybe whole 1% of those made in the first year - hundreds of them. That is not an extreme, one in a million case - one in a million case looks like this: http://www.tilburyautosales.com/used/Ford/2014-Ford-F-250-2db5bf890a0e08be46daa3c72ac02cd9.htm http://www.tilburyautosales.com/used/Ford/2014-Ford-F-250-2d... No, Teslas will never need battery replacement. Contrary, batteries outlive cars severalfold (yes they can be bricked by grossly violating their usage rules in a way BMS can't prevent, but this is not wear and tear - it is equally easy to do with a brand new or 10 year old car - that's approximately an equivalent of what happens if you fill a gasoline car with diesel). With a normal averagely intense usage and a good driver, a battery will last 40-50 years which is much, much more than it makes sense to keep using a car itself.

tjoff 9y ago
https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Tesla-Model-S-battery-and-will-there-be-a-replacement-plan-of-some-sort https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Tesla-M... "Tesla Tech Talk (06/13) - Speaker's main points: 1) battery degrades everyday 2) battery degradation is non-linear over time; meaning it starts very very slow, but after 4-5 years, it gets faster 3) after the first 5 years, degradation may be as low as 5%. But by the 8th year, they expect about 30% degradation." Batteries will without any doubt seriously affect second hand markets for EVs. Especially when considering cold climates and the fact that the range can be quite limiting even when the battery is brand new.
- anovikov 9y ago
  https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/?preview_id=30473 https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/?pr... from the same page in 2013, there was no data to tell what happens after 8 years of typical use, first Model S was just a year old by then and even more intensely used ones didn't have that much use - 8 years of normal use equivalent. Now there are many of those that were driven beyond median lifetime of a vehicle.
  - tjoff 9y ago
    I have no idea what to make of the claim that no further degradation is expected. It's not like batteries are a new not understood technology, batteries don't behave like that. Is that an ad? It is expected for the capacity to drop off significantly with age. The main weapon tesla has used against this is good cooling and sensible charging patterns, but that is just stalling the inevitable.