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The US adds 200k jobs per month during non recession times. 3.5 million is 17 months worth. Considering that truck driving jobs will disappear over many many ye

by harryh 9y ago

The US adds 200k jobs per month during non recession times. 3.5 million is 17 months worth. Considering that truck driving jobs will disappear over many many years that's no big deal.

luckydata 9y ago
This is the kind of comment that shows the wisdom of keeping "code monkeys" as far away from decisions that matters as humanly possible. Thank you for helping the cause of "pointy haired bosses" everywhere, keep it up.
- abiox 9y ago
  the comment seems to presume that 'X jobs per month' will persist into the future. apparently automation will only ever impact truck drivers.
  - kasey_junk 9y ago
    It presumes that it will because it has so far. We've already seen lots of automation and the "jobs per month" numbers have held up. A better critique of the argument is about the quality of the jobs, not the numbers.
    - abiox 9y ago
      > It presumes that it will because it has so far. that's the point though. seems like a standard example of the problem of induction.
quaunaut 9y ago
Now add taxi drivers. Now add non-semi truck drivers, such as delivery drivers for auto parts stores, pizza, or couriers. Now lets hop outward just slightly: Lets include most shipping personnel, whether involved in packing, organizing, shelf arrangement, etc. While we're at it, lets do that for any big box store in the country. With barely any adjustments, this single technological shift inside of one vertical just eliminated 5-10 million jobs. This also only includes one level of extrapolation. What about the HR jobs related to these positions? Safety inspectors? Managers? This is all ignoring the fact that "3.5 million is no big deal" is ridiculous. 3.5 million is massive. Losing that many jobs over 5 years would be a massive increase- it'd cut that 200k number by 1/3rd by itself, not including any of my additions above. The entirety of the 2008 recession resulted in 8.7 million job losses- and a lot of that were temporary losses based on less revenue than previous years, so with a better economy the jobs would return. The jobs we're talking about now? They're never coming back. Nothing similar is coming back. They're gone, forever.
- Clubber 9y ago
  Not only that, those truck drivers are licensed, meaning it's a skilled profession. Chances are if they find work, it will be in an unskilled position which pays significantly less with less benefits. That's sucking a whole lot of capital out of the middle class and the economy. What does a country look like without a solid middle class? Broke and on fire. A reckoning is coming and our politicians are pretending it isn't, or they have no idea what to do about it.
- gremlinsinc 9y ago
  you said big box store... now let's move out to Amazon closing tons of box stores by replacing people's shopping habits.. Malls are closing left and right. Sears is going out of business, many other retailers are too... It's a feedback loop where the more retailers close and jobs are lost, the less people have to spend, the more retailers/stores/restaurants will close, the less people will have to spend..the more... and so on..
ovulator 9y ago
How many of those 200k it adds every month are truck driving gigs?

by harryh 9y ago

The US adds 200k jobs per month during non recession times. 3.5 million is 17 months worth. Considering that truck driving jobs will disappear over many many years that's no big deal.

luckydata 9y ago

This is the kind of comment that shows the wisdom of keeping "code monkeys" as far away from decisions that matters as humanly possible. Thank you for helping the cause of "pointy haired bosses" everywhere, keep it up.

abiox 9y ago
the comment seems to presume that 'X jobs per month' will persist into the future. apparently automation will only ever impact truck drivers.
- kasey_junk 9y ago
  It presumes that it will because it has so far. We've already seen lots of automation and the "jobs per month" numbers have held up. A better critique of the argument is about the quality of the jobs, not the numbers.
  - abiox 9y ago
    > It presumes that it will because it has so far. that's the point though. seems like a standard example of the problem of induction.

quaunaut 9y ago

Now add taxi drivers. Now add non-semi truck drivers, such as delivery drivers for auto parts stores, pizza, or couriers. Now lets hop outward just slightly: Lets include most shipping personnel, whether involved in packing, organizing, shelf arrangement, etc. While we're at it, lets do that for any big box store in the country. With barely any adjustments, this single technological shift inside of one vertical just eliminated 5-10 million jobs. This also only includes one level of extrapolation. What about the HR jobs related to these positions? Safety inspectors? Managers? This is all ignoring the fact that "3.5 million is no big deal" is ridiculous. 3.5 million is massive. Losing that many jobs over 5 years would be a massive increase- it'd cut that 200k number by 1/3rd by itself, not including any of my additions above. The entirety of the 2008 recession resulted in 8.7 million job losses- and a lot of that were temporary losses based on less revenue than previous years, so with a better economy the jobs would return. The jobs we're talking about now? They're never coming back. Nothing similar is coming back. They're gone, forever.

Clubber 9y ago
Not only that, those truck drivers are licensed, meaning it's a skilled profession. Chances are if they find work, it will be in an unskilled position which pays significantly less with less benefits. That's sucking a whole lot of capital out of the middle class and the economy. What does a country look like without a solid middle class? Broke and on fire. A reckoning is coming and our politicians are pretending it isn't, or they have no idea what to do about it.
gremlinsinc 9y ago
you said big box store... now let's move out to Amazon closing tons of box stores by replacing people's shopping habits.. Malls are closing left and right. Sears is going out of business, many other retailers are too... It's a feedback loop where the more retailers close and jobs are lost, the less people have to spend, the more retailers/stores/restaurants will close, the less people will have to spend..the more... and so on..

ovulator 9y ago

How many of those 200k it adds every month are truck driving gigs?