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The state median household income includes high school dropouts working at McDonald's, and it includes folks living in very affordable rural areas with low wage

by nilkn 9y ago

The state median household income includes high school dropouts working at McDonald's, and it includes folks living in very affordable rural areas with low wages. It's not a meaningful point of comparison when you're looking at a subset of workers who are highly educated and seeking jobs in a technically demanding field at companies located in almost exclusively expensive metro areas. To add to that, the Massachusetts median household income is nearly $70k. And in Boston? It's almost $80k. Moreover, the median family income in Boston is $100k. http://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/massachusetts/boston/ http://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/massachusetts/boston/

matwood 9y ago
You made sokoloff's point. A fresh college grad on day 1 of working makes the median family income in Boston. To say that wages are not reflecting the shortage (the comment originally replied to), is ignoring the statistics.
- nilkn 9y ago
  Not at all. In fact, as far as I can tell, you completely ignored the point I made, so I'll just repeat it: > The state median household income includes high school dropouts working at McDonald's, and it includes folks living in very affordable rural areas with low wages. It's not a meaningful point of comparison when you're looking at a subset of workers who are highly educated and seeking jobs in a technically demanding field at companies located in almost exclusively expensive metro areas. Replace "state median household income" with "Boston median family income" if you wish. Many elements here still apply after that substitution and must be addressed in detail if you wish to claim that I "made sokoloff's point". The part you replied to and didn't ignore was just a correction to incorrect statistics that had been cited without reference. It seems pretty warped to suggest that I made his/her point by indicating that the cited statistics were off by a factor of 2 -- and not in the direction that favors their argument. I think it would also help if you defined precisely what you mean by "shortage". You seem to be using an extremely loose definition that claims a shortage exists any time new workers in a particular industry are paid above the median family income. We must then conclude that there is a shortage of all kinds of workers across countless industries. For instance, because new engineers in the O&G industry are typically paid $80k-$100k, there must be a shortage, even though the industry has been having layoffs for years and certainly does not struggle to fill needed positions.
  - sokoloff 9y ago
    > It seems pretty warped to suggest that I made his/her point by indicating that the cited statistics were off by a factor of 2 -- and not in the direction that favors their argument. Which statistic did I cite that was off by a factor of 2? Your figure of $70,628 is 4% higher than the google search result featured snippet for "median household income massachusetts" of $67,846, but even using your figure, my saying that $100K is "1.5x the state median household income" isn't anywhere near wrong by a factor of 2. 1.5 x $70,628 is $105,942. My claim is at the very most wrong by less than 6%, not the 100% you seem to be claiming.
    - nilkn 9y ago
      That's fair enough. You should really be using $80k though. It makes little sense to average over the entire state. You're then off by 20%, which is not really a negligible error. You're right, though -- I made a stupid error either way. It doesn't really matter though because it's a deeply flawed comparison to begin with, as already discussed twice. This is all tangential to the points I was making and that both you and matwood have declined to respond to.
      - sokoloff 9y ago
        OK, if we take the Boston household figure or even the family figure, a 21-year-old SWE new college grad their first day on the job is making more than any of those. That's evidence against a shortage? I'm not replying to your other points, because I think I'm not understanding them.
        nilkn 9y ago
        The only point I was trying to make is that these general median statistics across the entire state or even Boston aren't controlling for enough factors. Programmers are generally well educated and the work is technical in nature. This does not describe a very significant portion of the individual workers rolled up in the general median statistics. I was trying to suggest you should be comparing to similar professions, such as engineering in general. Programmers don't look like nearly such an outlier then. Would you say most engineering disciplines are experiencing shortages? I don't think that's true. O&G is one potential counterexample. Chemical engineers are still very highly paid, the big oil companies don't struggle to hire the best students from the best engineering schools, and yet there are also lots of layoffs going on. The layoffs and hiring freezes seem inconsistent with the notion of a shortage. Law is another interesting example. There's no shortage of students graduating with law degrees. In fact, there's a vast excess, and a good chunk of them are unemployed or underemployed and will never work as an attorney. And yet many big law firms are still paying new associates big six figure salaries, and partners at major firms are still earning $250k-$700k. I find this especially interesting and even counterintuitive because it suggests that if there is a shortage, throwing an endless supply of entry level talent at the industry won't necessarily solve anything.
zumu 9y ago
Not specific to Massachusetts , but if you look at the BLS numbers, both the median income and job growth statistics are higher for Computer/IT professions than engineering/architectural professions. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/... https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/home.ht...

by nilkn 9y ago

matwood 9y ago

You made sokoloff's point. A fresh college grad on day 1 of working makes the median family income in Boston. To say that wages are not reflecting the shortage (the comment originally replied to), is ignoring the statistics.

nilkn 9y ago
Not at all. In fact, as far as I can tell, you completely ignored the point I made, so I'll just repeat it: > The state median household income includes high school dropouts working at McDonald's, and it includes folks living in very affordable rural areas with low wages. It's not a meaningful point of comparison when you're looking at a subset of workers who are highly educated and seeking jobs in a technically demanding field at companies located in almost exclusively expensive metro areas. Replace "state median household income" with "Boston median family income" if you wish. Many elements here still apply after that substitution and must be addressed in detail if you wish to claim that I "made sokoloff's point". The part you replied to and didn't ignore was just a correction to incorrect statistics that had been cited without reference. It seems pretty warped to suggest that I made his/her point by indicating that the cited statistics were off by a factor of 2 -- and not in the direction that favors their argument. I think it would also help if you defined precisely what you mean by "shortage". You seem to be using an extremely loose definition that claims a shortage exists any time new workers in a particular industry are paid above the median family income. We must then conclude that there is a shortage of all kinds of workers across countless industries. For instance, because new engineers in the O&G industry are typically paid $80k-$100k, there must be a shortage, even though the industry has been having layoffs for years and certainly does not struggle to fill needed positions.
- sokoloff 9y ago
  > It seems pretty warped to suggest that I made his/her point by indicating that the cited statistics were off by a factor of 2 -- and not in the direction that favors their argument. Which statistic did I cite that was off by a factor of 2? Your figure of $70,628 is 4% higher than the google search result featured snippet for "median household income massachusetts" of $67,846, but even using your figure, my saying that $100K is "1.5x the state median household income" isn't anywhere near wrong by a factor of 2. 1.5 x $70,628 is $105,942. My claim is at the very most wrong by less than 6%, not the 100% you seem to be claiming.
  - nilkn 9y ago
    That's fair enough. You should really be using $80k though. It makes little sense to average over the entire state. You're then off by 20%, which is not really a negligible error. You're right, though -- I made a stupid error either way. It doesn't really matter though because it's a deeply flawed comparison to begin with, as already discussed twice. This is all tangential to the points I was making and that both you and matwood have declined to respond to.
    - sokoloff 9y ago
      OK, if we take the Boston household figure or even the family figure, a 21-year-old SWE new college grad their first day on the job is making more than any of those. That's evidence against a shortage? I'm not replying to your other points, because I think I'm not understanding them.
      - nilkn 9y ago
        The only point I was trying to make is that these general median statistics across the entire state or even Boston aren't controlling for enough factors. Programmers are generally well educated and the work is technical in nature. This does not describe a very significant portion of the individual workers rolled up in the general median statistics. I was trying to suggest you should be comparing to similar professions, such as engineering in general. Programmers don't look like nearly such an outlier then. Would you say most engineering disciplines are experiencing shortages? I don't think that's true. O&G is one potential counterexample. Chemical engineers are still very highly paid, the big oil companies don't struggle to hire the best students from the best engineering schools, and yet there are also lots of layoffs going on. The layoffs and hiring freezes seem inconsistent with the notion of a shortage. Law is another interesting example. There's no shortage of students graduating with law degrees. In fact, there's a vast excess, and a good chunk of them are unemployed or underemployed and will never work as an attorney. And yet many big law firms are still paying new associates big six figure salaries, and partners at major firms are still earning $250k-$700k. I find this especially interesting and even counterintuitive because it suggests that if there is a shortage, throwing an endless supply of entry level talent at the industry won't necessarily solve anything.

zumu 9y ago

Not specific to Massachusetts , but if you look at the BLS numbers, both the median income and job growth statistics are higher for Computer/IT professions than engineering/architectural professions. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/... https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/home.ht...