3 ms·

Peter Schiff is always predicting a crash, his call on the housing bubble is more of a stopped clock type scenario.

• richardknop 9y ago
  Yes, I mean recessions / booms are cyclical so he is likely to be right again in the future when the next recession comes because he's been consistently predicting economic doom every year.
• jdmichal 9y ago
  For cases like this, it's probably more important to look at what the predictions were, rather than when. We accept that it's impossible to time markets... Well, that applies to both bulls and bears. I'm not familiar with Peter Schiff at all, but if he was calling the correct failure then, it's worth considering that he's calling the correct failure now.
• adventured 9y ago
  > Peter Schiff is always predicting a crash, his call on the housing bubble is more of a stopped clock type scenario You're absolutely correct that he sounds like an inevitable broken clock outcome. However, his premise on why and how the last bubble was going to explode, was extremely well supported by argumentation & data. He didn't just say it, he argued it out and supported the premise, and he was right. It wasn't luck, it made perfect sense, and he wasn't the only person using the same argument details. He's right this time that they've blown another huge bubble in asset values via cheap money / hyper low interest rates. The Fed has finally gotten to the point where they're openly admitting to that (Yellen just did so recently). This is the third time in 20 years they've generated vast asset bubbles with cheap money. Schiff is wrong on the timing because he has persistently underestimated how long the Fed could keep the bubbles inflated via said cheap money. Raise interest rates just to the average level of the prior 50 years, and see what happens to the housing market.