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"I suspect that SegWit2x will end up taking over the network" What? They had first release like yesterday, the project has released one tarball, no packaging,

"I suspect that SegWit2x will end up taking over the network" What? They had first release like yesterday, the project has released one tarball, no packaging, no very good marketing etc. The biggest marketers seem to be the tinfoil hat opponents who fear the fork so much that they speak about it everywhere. I don't think it is at all likely that segwit2x client will gain support. Or if it will gain support, it will take years at this point for it to gain any considerable support. The whole thins is totally exaggerated. People have nothing to talk about, so they will invent tinfoil hat scenarios and discuss those. Bitcoin protocol has staid fundamentally the same for many years and it is pretty likely that it will stay that way.

mhluongo 9y ago
They have a huge amount of committed hashpower and the support of most major Bitcoin companies.
- jerguismi 9y ago
  No major bitcoin company has stated that they will run segwit2x client. If you have conflicting information, please link announcement/blog post about that. As for the hashpower, it doesn't matter what clients miners run. You can't force the nodes to run specific client with hashpower.
  - ChrisClark 9y ago
    I'm not picking a side, just delivering info: You can see the signalling process here: https://coin.dance/blocks https://coin.dance/blocks 90% are signalling the NYA intent to support Segwit2x. Since the software release 20% have signalled with segwit2x blocks. You can see business support here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses I'm not sure if you consider Coinbase a major bitcoin company yourself, but I think they qualify. If I was to make a prediction, everyone will be running segwit2x or another client faking segwit2x support, to get segwit passed by Aug 1st. Then once October comes along we'll have another fight over the actual blocksize hardfork.
    - jerguismi 9y ago
      > You can see business support here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses > I'm not sure if you consider Coinbase a major bitcoin company yourself, but I think they qualify. That doesn't look like a very good proof. If coinbase plans to adopt segwit2x, why haven't they released an announcement? I wouldn't trust that wiki list very much.
      - ChrisClark 9y ago
        You can click through to see the sources on each one on the table there. And don't trust the wiki, no need to. Trust the hash power. The NYA signal was just a promise, so don't trust that one. But the BIP91 signals are coming in already. Just need to get that over 80% for just over 2 days. Then we'll see the original segwit signals jump to the 95%+ it needs. But the truth is, you don't have to worry about finding any support proof or anything. We'll know what happens over the next week or two for sure. I don't care whatever direction it goes in, I just want it to go smoothly.
        jerguismi 9y ago
        Well certainly it will be interesting if this trick gets miners to signal segwit, as currently the segwit signaling is only around 45%.
      - stale2002 9y ago
        They did release an announcement. They signed the original new york agreement letter.
  - buttershakes 9y ago
    You basically can do exactly that. Unless the companies involved want to run on a minority chain with much less hash power, which means they are exposing themselves to a 51% attack as soon as their difficulty drops significantly behind the majority. Hash power is a very big stick.
  - stale2002 9y ago
    Wrong. Coinbase is on board. They were an original signer of the new york agreement, which is how segwit2X was created. If you want a link, just read the new york agreement announcement.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - jerguismi 9y ago
    All those claiming that coinbase is planning to run segwit2x, please link to a statement provided by a representative of that company. I think you are just talking bullshit.
    - eganist 9y ago
      https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77 https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-conse... The digital currency group (dcg.co) includes Coinbase in its portfolio.
      - jerguismi 9y ago
        That agreement seems very general, doesn't indicate that the participants will run specific code. Segwit2x client didn't even exist at that time, first release was yesterday. People are just making this bullshit up.
        mhluongo 9y ago
        Not making it up, talking to real people in the space. You can also check out the SegWit2x mailing list archive [0] for companies actively testing SegWit2x. From there I've seen BitGo, Blockchain, Bloq, OB1 (Open Bazaar), Purse.. these are significant companies in the Bitcoin economy. [0] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x/ https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x...
        jerguismi 9y ago
        > companies actively testing SegWit2x Testing is very different from actually running it in production. Companies test out a lot of different things. I think with consensus code companies will be very careful and if they plan to do something regarding that, they will announce it clearly, not in some half-assed wiki site or medium post.
        9y ago
buttershakes 9y ago
The only support it needs is hash power support. That's it. If enough of the hash power can be pulled into it, then it's game over for a minority chain. Running nodes costs almost nothing which means the network can be flooded with segwit2x supporting nodes, and companies will be motivated to switch over.
- jerguismi 9y ago
  Miners can mine segwit2x blocks all they wish, but since services/exchanges are running core client, they are just mining invalid blocks from their viewpoint, and those blocks are ignored. That means miners can't sell their mined segwit2x bitcoins on exchanges. Mining blocks that services don't accept would be very, very stupid, essentially throwing good money to trash.
  - buttershakes 9y ago
    So if a huge number of nodes are Segwit2x capable, and the miners are mining Segwit2x blocks with the majority of the hash power, companies are going to stay on a less secure chain that can be attacked by the majority so that they can have a smaller block size and keep the core dev team because they love them? This isn't how that works. Proof-of-work will force those companies onto the dominant chain. Exchanges will probably keep trading the smaller coins also.
    - jerguismi 9y ago
      Bitcoin protocol is defined by bitcoin core client, and I would guess more than 99% percent of the services that process bitcoin transactions use that client. The services don't follow actively the hash rate and they won't change the client based on that - the network automatically adjusts to the hash rate available so that blocks come each 10 minutes. If there would exist some other cryptocurrency with more hash rate doesn't mean that services would start calling that one bitcoin.
      - buttershakes 9y ago
ascendantlogic 9y ago
90% of the hashing power has signaled their intention to adopt segwit2x as of late June. I assume it will become the dominant chain once it locks in right before August 1st.
- BenoitP 9y ago
  That's assuming hashing power will determine the outcome. In the exchanges runs will take place. The actual economic users will vote this issue out. In the end spreadsheets will be updated, and miners won't want to spend their electricity on a chain that went unprofitable. Miners may have the software coming from segwit2x, and be the ones who actually provide the technical consensus. But the economic consensus will trump everything else; and late software along with questionable roadmap does not inspire confidence.
  - ascendantlogic 9y ago
    Hashing power is what mines the blocks. There will be no "voting the issue out" if the dominant chain is using Segwit. Just because you buy a few BTC on GDAX or something doesn't somehow give you more say than the miners over what software gets run on their own machines. Vast amounts of hashing power is concentrated in the mining pools that are signaling support for this and 99% of the people speculating on these currencies don't care about the underlying protocol, they just want to make money.
- rothbardrand 9y ago
  Which do you put more stock in? What they are signaling now or what they promise in a blog post? This makes their opposition to Segwit2X clear: https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148/ https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip14... Its clear the opposition is to Segwit-- and Segwit2X contains Segwit.
  - ascendantlogic 9y ago
    http://bitcoinist.com/antpool-mines-segwit2x-block/ http://bitcoinist.com/antpool-mines-segwit2x-block/ https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech/status/886839997440995328 https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech/status/886839997440995328
shady5050 9y ago
Let's assume the segwit2x is being activated, how long long will it take to start trading again?
shady5050 9y ago
Let's assume the segwit2x is being activated, how long long will it take to start trading again?

mhluongo 9y ago

They have a huge amount of committed hashpower and the support of most major Bitcoin companies.

jerguismi 9y ago
No major bitcoin company has stated that they will run segwit2x client. If you have conflicting information, please link announcement/blog post about that. As for the hashpower, it doesn't matter what clients miners run. You can't force the nodes to run specific client with hashpower.
- ChrisClark 9y ago
  I'm not picking a side, just delivering info: You can see the signalling process here: https://coin.dance/blocks https://coin.dance/blocks 90% are signalling the NYA intent to support Segwit2x. Since the software release 20% have signalled with segwit2x blocks. You can see business support here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses I'm not sure if you consider Coinbase a major bitcoin company yourself, but I think they qualify. If I was to make a prediction, everyone will be running segwit2x or another client faking segwit2x support, to get segwit passed by Aug 1st. Then once October comes along we'll have another fight over the actual blocksize hardfork.
  - jerguismi 9y ago
    > You can see business support here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support#Businesses > I'm not sure if you consider Coinbase a major bitcoin company yourself, but I think they qualify. That doesn't look like a very good proof. If coinbase plans to adopt segwit2x, why haven't they released an announcement? I wouldn't trust that wiki list very much.
    - ChrisClark 9y ago
      You can click through to see the sources on each one on the table there. And don't trust the wiki, no need to. Trust the hash power. The NYA signal was just a promise, so don't trust that one. But the BIP91 signals are coming in already. Just need to get that over 80% for just over 2 days. Then we'll see the original segwit signals jump to the 95%+ it needs. But the truth is, you don't have to worry about finding any support proof or anything. We'll know what happens over the next week or two for sure. I don't care whatever direction it goes in, I just want it to go smoothly.
      - jerguismi 9y ago
        Well certainly it will be interesting if this trick gets miners to signal segwit, as currently the segwit signaling is only around 45%.
    - stale2002 9y ago
      They did release an announcement. They signed the original new york agreement letter.
- buttershakes 9y ago
  You basically can do exactly that. Unless the companies involved want to run on a minority chain with much less hash power, which means they are exposing themselves to a 51% attack as soon as their difficulty drops significantly behind the majority. Hash power is a very big stick.
- stale2002 9y ago
  Wrong. Coinbase is on board. They were an original signer of the new york agreement, which is how segwit2X was created. If you want a link, just read the new york agreement announcement.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- jerguismi 9y ago
  All those claiming that coinbase is planning to run segwit2x, please link to a statement provided by a representative of that company. I think you are just talking bullshit.
  - eganist 9y ago
    https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77 https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-conse... The digital currency group (dcg.co) includes Coinbase in its portfolio.
    - jerguismi 9y ago
      That agreement seems very general, doesn't indicate that the participants will run specific code. Segwit2x client didn't even exist at that time, first release was yesterday. People are just making this bullshit up.
      - mhluongo 9y ago
        Not making it up, talking to real people in the space. You can also check out the SegWit2x mailing list archive [0] for companies actively testing SegWit2x. From there I've seen BitGo, Blockchain, Bloq, OB1 (Open Bazaar), Purse.. these are significant companies in the Bitcoin economy. [0] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x/ https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x...
        jerguismi 9y ago
        > companies actively testing SegWit2x Testing is very different from actually running it in production. Companies test out a lot of different things. I think with consensus code companies will be very careful and if they plan to do something regarding that, they will announce it clearly, not in some half-assed wiki site or medium post.
        9y ago

buttershakes 9y ago

The only support it needs is hash power support. That's it. If enough of the hash power can be pulled into it, then it's game over for a minority chain. Running nodes costs almost nothing which means the network can be flooded with segwit2x supporting nodes, and companies will be motivated to switch over.

jerguismi 9y ago
Miners can mine segwit2x blocks all they wish, but since services/exchanges are running core client, they are just mining invalid blocks from their viewpoint, and those blocks are ignored. That means miners can't sell their mined segwit2x bitcoins on exchanges. Mining blocks that services don't accept would be very, very stupid, essentially throwing good money to trash.
- buttershakes 9y ago
  So if a huge number of nodes are Segwit2x capable, and the miners are mining Segwit2x blocks with the majority of the hash power, companies are going to stay on a less secure chain that can be attacked by the majority so that they can have a smaller block size and keep the core dev team because they love them? This isn't how that works. Proof-of-work will force those companies onto the dominant chain. Exchanges will probably keep trading the smaller coins also.
  - jerguismi 9y ago
    Bitcoin protocol is defined by bitcoin core client, and I would guess more than 99% percent of the services that process bitcoin transactions use that client. The services don't follow actively the hash rate and they won't change the client based on that - the network automatically adjusts to the hash rate available so that blocks come each 10 minutes. If there would exist some other cryptocurrency with more hash rate doesn't mean that services would start calling that one bitcoin.
    - buttershakes 9y ago

ascendantlogic 9y ago

90% of the hashing power has signaled their intention to adopt segwit2x as of late June. I assume it will become the dominant chain once it locks in right before August 1st.

BenoitP 9y ago
That's assuming hashing power will determine the outcome. In the exchanges runs will take place. The actual economic users will vote this issue out. In the end spreadsheets will be updated, and miners won't want to spend their electricity on a chain that went unprofitable. Miners may have the software coming from segwit2x, and be the ones who actually provide the technical consensus. But the economic consensus will trump everything else; and late software along with questionable roadmap does not inspire confidence.
- ascendantlogic 9y ago
  Hashing power is what mines the blocks. There will be no "voting the issue out" if the dominant chain is using Segwit. Just because you buy a few BTC on GDAX or something doesn't somehow give you more say than the miners over what software gets run on their own machines. Vast amounts of hashing power is concentrated in the mining pools that are signaling support for this and 99% of the people speculating on these currencies don't care about the underlying protocol, they just want to make money.
rothbardrand 9y ago
Which do you put more stock in? What they are signaling now or what they promise in a blog post? This makes their opposition to Segwit2X clear: https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148/ https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip14... Its clear the opposition is to Segwit-- and Segwit2X contains Segwit.
- ascendantlogic 9y ago
  http://bitcoinist.com/antpool-mines-segwit2x-block/ http://bitcoinist.com/antpool-mines-segwit2x-block/ https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech/status/886839997440995328 https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech/status/886839997440995328

shady5050 9y ago

Let's assume the segwit2x is being activated, how long long will it take to start trading again?

shady5050 9y ago

Let's assume the segwit2x is being activated, how long long will it take to start trading again?