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What if AI is a failed dream?
- skrebbel 9y ago@idlewords has a very nice talk about this: "Superintelligence, The Idea That Eats Smart People". http://idlewords.com/talks/superintelligence.htm http://idlewords.com/talks/superintelligence.htm Also don't forget the filter bubble we're in. This article opens with "We’ve been told the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is right around the corner", but only a rather specific in-crowd actually believes this. I bet if you'd interview the average world-citizen they'd not be so convinced.
- dirkc 9y agoFrom the link you reference: > Premise 2: No Quantum Shenanigans > ... > the mind arises out of ordinary physics. Some people like Roger Penrose would take issue with this argument, believing that there is extra stuff happening in the brain at a quantum level. And some other people would take issue with the idea that you can talk about a simple physics that excludes quantum physics. > But for most of us, this is an easy premise to accept. I'm out.
- marcosdumay 9y agoIt's not excluding quantum physics, it's excluding quantum shenanigans. You'll certainly need chemistry to model the brain; you'll very likely need solid state physics; everything points towards you needing some very low level molecular dynamics. What you can't use is high temperature long term coherence. Mostly because quantum physics all but forbids it.
- yorwba 9y agoBut of course you can talk about simple physics without invoking quantum physics. What do you think physicists did before? Most everyday phenomena can be approximated very well by classical physics, and modeling the full wave-function for every particle wouldn't even get you any results in a reasonable time. Since neurons are relatively large and dense, I expect a classical approximation wouldn't show any observable difference in behavior. Unless a deviation is shown, I don't think it is necessary to postulate things like Roger Penrose's quantum-gravity "explanation" of consciousness.
- DiThi 9y agoI read it as "everything can be explained with classical physics alone", the same way we can safely assume the Earth is flat for making a small house. We're not going to complicate math by using the curvature the same way we're not worrying about tunneling, spin, entanglement, etc.
- dirkc 9y agoThat is exactly why I'm skeptical. Photosynthesis involves quantum entanglement. I'd be surprised if quantum entanglement doesn't play a role in consciousness.
- DiThi 9y agoWe have a pretty good understanding of the individual neuron, and we modeled it with good accuracy. We used a very simplified model of it to build deep learning. The problem is the absurd amount of neurons and interconnections that we would have to run to simulate a human brain. At some point we may find some phenomena for learning that involves some quantum event, but I doubt we have ever to simulate them at the quantum level.
- haltingthoughts 9y agoSaying that quantum effects are present and saying that the human brain is a quantum computer (or more?) and will get exponential speedup are two very different things.
- gradstudent 9y ago> I bet if you'd interview the average world-citizen they'd not be so convinced. I bet if you interview the average AI researcher they'd not be convinced. All the progress we've seen can be summed up as doing dumb things quickly. Obviously that's a bit reductive and some of the dumb things are less dumb than they were before but it's hard to deny how much progress depends on our ever increasing ability to do mechanical things faster than ever before. "Dumb things quickly" is also closer to the truth about the current (and forseeable future) state of AI than all the pop-culture bullshit about super intelligence and robots taking over.
- emiliobumachar 9y ago> All the progress we've seen can be summed up as doing dumb things quickly. Multiplying large numbers, playing chess well, and proving mathematical theorems were widely believed to necessarily require intelligence, up until when a machine could do it.
- cat199 9y agoDoing those tasks intuitively requires intelligence - and has still not been done. Doing these tasks brute force by exhausting the problem problem space never required 'intellegence', only computational power.
- cbr 9y ago> doing dumb things quickly AlphaGo's policy (what moves should I look into) and value (how good is this board position) networks aren't dumb-but-fast. The rollouts are though. Recent image successes (classifying images) aren't dumb-but-fast.
- folksinger 9y agoYou can still trick the best image classification techniques with objects that to the human mind are clearly not what the machine says they are. Machines do not reason in the way that humans do. They don't have a concept of a self that exists in space-time. Humans can make inferences about images precisely because they have an a priori understanding of space-time. You will always find that those who have faith in strong AI also have faith in a reductionist approach to human intellect. That is, they are behaviorists and neuroscientists and not philosophers and poets. What makes great art is not the notes that make up the melody but expression of the human condition. Machines do not make art. They make meaningless objects.
- colmvp 9y agoStrangely, I feel the opposite. That the in-crowd is aware of the limitations of AI and the average educated citizen is largely fearful of the incoming implications of highly advanced AI.
- djaychela 9y ago"I bet if you'd interview the average world-citizen they'd not be so convinced." That's as maybe, but it doesn't mean it's not going to happen.. Granted it's easy to see the possibility of AI taking over everything when you're working with it, but I don't think ignorance of the field has any bearing on whether it actually happens. It was popular opinion in the 1980s that video phones will "never happen" because the telephone system couldn't handle the amount of information needed for pictures to be transmitted, and that's clearly no longer the case. I'm merely an interested observer of this stuff, who is slowly learning programming. But the vast majority of people I speak to (and indeed teach) are totally oblivious to the advances that are being made, or their consequences. But that doesn't mean that some of them will not have particular jobs available to them in 10 years time because of the progress of which they are unaware.
- dirkc 9y agoThis made my day: > If AdSense became sentient, it would upload itself into a self-driving car and go drive off a cliff.
- rubidium 9y agoAgreed. AI/ machine learning is really expensive to most companies. The ROI just isn't there for a lot of business domains. I don't think we'll ever reach a full AI controlled society for the sames reason the world will never run out of oil: supply and demand. As demand rises so will price, and at a certain point it's cheaper to employ people. That said, there will be swaths of industry that are more easily automated that will be (and already are), but there are much larger areas that will still need people doing the 'plumbing' with excel and phone calls. My guess is there's going to be a continued trifurcation in the white collar work force that we've been seeing for 20 years. 1) The MBAs: they will continue to run the show for the vast majority of businesses. 10% 2) The tech kings/queens, barons, and knights: they will run a few of the mega-tech businesses. The rest will work for the MBA's and get rewarded nicely. 10% 3) The information plumbers: proficient at writing/reading reports for the MBA's, working in excel, calling who needs to be called, and moving stuff to the right space when the machine doesn't know how to (e.g. when the tech royalty messes up). 80% Then there's the blue collar class. Most of the changes there have already begun to happen. The loss of jobs in manufacturing will be echoed in some other industries (e.g. trucking... we'll still need truckers, just not the same % of the population). The standard solutions for these changes people propose is: 1) UBI: I believe this is a pipe dream that helps the tech royalty sleep at night. 2) Training: Covert Blue collar jobs into the while collar plumbing class. A nice idea, and has merit. The problem is white collar is office, and most blue collar employees _HATE_ the office. 3) Infrastructure: hearkening back to the United States CCC, beef up infrastructure projects to replace loss of jobs in the blue collar sector. This is not a bad idea, but has funding issues. Any I missed?
- s_kilk 9y ago> I bet if you'd interview the average world-citizen they'd not be so convinced. You don't even need to go that far afield, we're talking about a country that can't even provide clean drinking water to all of it's citizens.
- thinkfurther 9y agoTo be honest I didn't read the actually because I gotta run, but right from the outset there is one bullshit bit that always annoys me: there is no "the" singularity! For those who are in it, there is nothing else, they might not even have a concept of the singularity. For those who aren't in it, there could be lots -- it's not called singularity because there can be just one of them. It just means falling into a well you cannot get out of, and that an outside observer can't distinguish you from the well either. Okay, so I made that up. But whatever the best way to describe it may be, nothing about that inherently prefers fulfilling all our dreams to torturing us forever or something else entirely, that's quite orthogonal to something being a singularity.
- Tepix 9y agoIn this context the term singularity means a point in time in the future where certain technologies become available and open up such vast possibilities that it's impossible to predict what will happen beyond that point.
- tormeh 9y agoHave you seen old sci-fi? If that's the definition of singularity then we've been there for some time.
- rgejman 9y ago>But if you took someone from 1870 and had them wake up 70 years later, in 1940, the world would look entirely different. >Now skip forward from 1940 to 2010: apart from our obsession with little glass rectangles, the world would be fundamentally familiar. Disagree completely. The technology and information economy revolution means that a socially well-adjusted blue collar, white collar or even field-hand in 1940 cannot compete at all in 2010 at the same job.
- admax88q 9y agoJust because a field-hand's job got automated doesn't meant the world would look fundamentally different.
- ThomPete 9y agoIt would look remarkably different. I don't thing people are realising that AI isn't going to replace jobs as much as they are going to remove the need for those specific jobs. I.e. it's not like where you used to have company x doing product y you now have AI. AI is transforming the very idea of constitutes a company. Digitalization is a winner takes most if not all. And more and more things are becoming digitalized to a point were they make no sense as scarce offerings. The supply will heavily out weight the demand.
- captainmuon 9y agoRight, but lets say between 1920 and 1990? The difference would be less pronounced. I would say there was a discontinuity in the 90s and 2000s. But it is entirely possible that once everything has been "internetized", we will reach a plateau for the next decades.
- rgejman 9y agoJust restricting ourselves to the developed world: Being able to call anyone in the world from your home? Not having to worry about food scarcity? Not worrying about being drafted into an army? Political and technological differences have drastically changed life between 1920 and 1990. I bet any 70 year epoch that covers the development of the internet or mobile phones, will have the same features. Who knows what's next.
- mdevere 9y agoTLDR: Don't assume singularity will come along and solve growing "today" problems.
- Pigo 9y agoI'll admit I fall into the camp of not believing the "Johnny Depp Transcendence AI" is right around any corner (neither is an Martian apartment complex for that matter). But I also believe it's the journey to such AI that's important. Even if we will never reach this ultimate goal. We're already reaping the benefits of what we have learned from this struggle. And I think we gain so much insight into ourselves as we try to reverse engineer the most important part of our meat vehicle.
- brador 9y ago> we must strive to be more than we are To what end? Is a computer with our collective brains as AI orbiting a sun more or less than what we are? what should we be striving for as an ultimate utopian end to progress? Does/can such an end even conceptually exist?
- Eerie 9y agoA dream can't be failed. A dream is a dream.
- blackhole 9y agoI appreciate the point of view this post is providing. It is always important to think about the potential limitations of AI, and the fact that once again, we may hit the ceiling of our current attempts at AI much more quickly than we realize, and no singularity will ever occur. We need to think about how to solve our problems realistically, now, without waiting for a godly super AI to come solve them for us. However, what's bizarre is that he is painting a world that is already wrong. In particular: "We won’t have massive, perfectly coordinated networks with optimised flow and distribution — think traffic networks (those self-driving Teslas that act as taxis when you don’t need them)" But... we will. We're already making it. It might not work very well at first, but automated cars are a real thing, and they are going to happen. We have preliminary automated cars right now. Perhaps he is instead claiming that our autonomous cars won't scale, but this too makes no sense. Of course we can make them scale. Once we've solved the hard problem, which is actually driving the cars around and not hitting things, solving distribution and flow is almost trivial. We have all sorts of systems for solving distribution problems and finding maximal flow along a network. There's even an entire class of algorithms to solve it with[1], which we currently use, right now, to solve things like scheduling airplane flights. And then he brings up a point that seems completely perpendicular to the entire rest of the post: "We won’t have total surveillance (à la Reynold’s Mechanism or Brin’s Transparent Society)" This has nothing to do with AI and everything to do with cryptography. Whether or not the singularity does or doesn't happen is completely irrelevant. Indeed, it currently looks like we're headed towards having total surveillance with or without the singularity, unless we do something about our privacy laws. While we shouldn't assume AI will fix all our problems, the examples provided in this post are bizarre, to say the least. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_flow_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_flow_problem
- rimliu 9y agoYou know how solving 90% of some problem takes 90% of the time, and solving the remaining 10% takes another 90%? I have a feeling that with self-driving cars we are not close to 90% yet, not to mention the last 10%. There is a huge difference between "hey, this prototype kind of works" and polished product ready for consumption.
- JohnJamesRambo 9y agoWe are an organic based AI. It is possible.
- rf15 9y agoBut it's hard and we don't understand much at all about us, and the things we built after thinking we had some gigantic insight are kinda not as great as we hoped them to be. Therefore, doubt is appropriate. (as is working on further progress)
- virtualized 9y agoWe will make humans brains more computer-like instead of making computers more human-like. Some day, the last cyborg will replace their remaining flesh with metal. Strong AI the hard way.
- pixl97 9y agoUh, ever heard the statement that premature optimization makes changes harder further down the road? The problem with the body/mind system is the insane level of interconnection and feedback loops. "We made you 20% smarter!, uh, sorry about the 60% incident increase in cancer though". The size of the problem space when dealing with human minds is astronomical, we will likely need intelligent systems to solve the problem, which means the silicon Strong AI will come before the Wetware AI.
- DiThi 9y agoIf we figure a way to copy wetware AI, the interconnection problem is pretty much solved. Cancer again? Get a new body.
- Tepix 9y agoConsider findings such as this one: http://www.kurzweilai.net/brain-has-more-than-100-times-higher-computational-capacity-than-previously-thought-say-ucla-scientists http://www.kurzweilai.net/brain-has-more-than-100-times-high... It may be a lot harder than we think. In turn, it may take much much longer than we think. Perhaps we will trash this planet before we reach the point.
- Tepix 9y agoI don't understand why he finishes with this paragraph: I’m as excited by the idea of colonising Mars as much as the next nerd. But not at the opportunity cost of not solving the problems facing us on Earth. That’s a bet too big. Making an effort to colonize Mars does not carry such a cost. People who are interested in solving this issue will not magically do whatever you'd like them to do instead. We will never solve all problems we have here on Earth, that shouldn't stop us from venturing out into space.
- agmcleod 9y agoI agree with you. But typically when people make such an argument, it's about where we spend money.
- loceng 9y agoMoney is a human-made construct, productivity is all about people wanting to work on things they are passionate about - whether that's having a healthy family or Elon's escapist plans of colonizing Mars. Once we have UBI and automation in place - which will lead to properly managed capitalism - then everything can become very efficient. The foundation to this working is people being healthy and community being healthy, real community where we have time to have deep discussion not only online but in person - which is currently greatly lacking. What currently keeps most of us engaged is economics, the requirement of a job. Once UBI is in place worldwide then things will really start moving.
- richmarr 9y agoWhy will UBI and automation lead to properly managed capitalism? And what do you mean by "properly managed capitalism"?
- loceng 9y agoGood questions. The brief of it is that it's known if you increase money available for education, educational institutes will increase their fees- the same goes for landlords and rent - and pretty much everything which leads to inflation; the more of a necessity something is will generally dictate who benefits the most from these cost increases and pressure on systems. There will have to be a floor created for housing, food, transportation, etc. Most of what we need can be automated, heavily automated. We'll have to decide as a society what people should have a baseline for everything. Fitting that new system in the existing system is the tricky part.
- ThomPete 9y agoAI is no more a failed dream than normal intelligence and i chsllenge anyone to come up with an argument for why we could evolve from basic elements of the universe to what we are today but that this couldnt happen with "machines". AI is already a reality its not just wishfull thinking. And people would notice the difference quite a as it would have become way more granular.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- pixl97 9y agoThis is exactly my thinking. Things like faster than light travel or whole object teleportation are wishful thinking. Things like intelligence explosions are not, because one has happened in the last 100,000 years. That intelligence has come to dominate every animal on this planet and the biosphere, even to the point of escaping the planets gravity well itself. To imagine that we are the pinnacle of the optimization of intelligence (especially when we cannot tweak our bandwidth or input devices much) sounds like hubris.
- jmull 9y ago"If"?!? Don't worry, uninterrupted exponentially improving AI certainly will not happen. Exponential growth requires a uniform medium to support it, which -- of course -- it quickly exhaust. The idea that smart AI will produce smarter AI which will produce even smarter AI seems wildly simplistic and I'm surprised it has any traction. Why assume it would be a linear progression... a given advance might require a leap that even the smarter AI can't make directly. Or, the problem may become exponentially more difficult at a rate outstripping the advances. And those are just really simple objections. In the real world, progress on big things is messy and complex.
- virtualized 9y agoThe Judgement Day scenario is a strawman. Of course humanity will not be replaced by killers robots over night. When we learn how to connect our brains to computers - without our eyes, ears and hands as bottlenecks in between - humanity's views about the world and life itself might change significantly. Strong AI is not even required for that to happen. There will be brain mines in rural Chinese sheds.
- taneq 9y agoI don't see how they go from 'but it might not happen yet' to 'failed dream'. The fraction of things that humans can do which machines cannot is shrinking monotonically. One of two things will happen - either humans are unbelievably close to some 'maximum possible intelligence', or computers will one day handily beat us at everything. My money's on the second scenario.
- rwallace 9y ago> The fraction of things that humans can do which machines cannot is shrinking monotonically. That's only true until it's not. Our little enclave of civilization that currently exists on this planet has a finite lifespan, just like every other civilization that's ever been run by uplifted killer apes. Either we will achieve a takeoff point within that lifespan, or we will not. If not - and I think that's the more likely outcome - there is no reason to expect another industrial revolution now that the easily accessible fossil fuels are all gone. Our descendants will eke out a living as subsistence farmers until evolution eliminates the overhead of general intelligence or the sun autoclaves the biosphere.
- lottin 9y agoThis is a bit like saying that matches beat us at making fire. A more accurate thing to say is that matches allow us to make fire more easily and efficiently.
- yorwba 9y ago> Now skip forward from 1940 to 2010: apart from our obsession with little glass rectangles, the world would be fundamentally familiar. This is similar to summarizing the discovery of space-warping technology by "Except for everyone's pockets now being bottomless Bags of Holding, the world hasn't changed much." It misses the fact that computers are involved in everything today. When you listen to music, the sound is undistorted thanks to computers. If advertising shows a smiling woman, her face is prettier than life thanks to computers. When you see a plane flying overhead, it is saving fuel thanks to computers. Even mobile telephony requires computers. (Imagine having an operator in every cell tower, manually routing calls.) It is easy to overlook, but lots of little details of our modern lives would seem utterly impossible to someone from 1940, and I don't think this kind of change is going to stop anytime soon.
- stevehiehn 9y agoIsn't A.I. already 'real'? I use Amazon's & Netflix's recomendation systems everyday?
- virtualized 9y ago"You just ordered a lawn mower from us. Here are more lawn mowers for you" "You might like this movie because you have watched other movies with _the_ in the title before"
- stevehiehn 9y agoI guess this comment means you consider making good recomendations a simple problem? Or maybe not real A.I?
- mrkrabo 9y agoI think he means those problems are real AI, and current solutions stink.
- Dirlewanger 9y agoThat's one of the problems with discussing AI and with whom you discuss it with: it can cover relatively simple stuff like recommendation engines all the way up to the stuff that Boston Dynamics works on. Both have completely different trajectories in terms of what they are capable of.
- stevehiehn 9y agoAgreed! I have a hard time knowing what language to use. I think I'm going to try to use the term machine learning more. It seems many people use A.I. to refer to a self aware/skynet level of intelligence.
- cfrs 9y agoInteresting links, though blaming AI does not "solve the problems of today" seems naive. It does. P.S. Funny that google suggests to search for "what can't we do without AI" instead of "what can’t we do without AI" ;)
- lr4444lr 9y agoThough there may be real limits to AI, the author's superficial treatment of the matter includes few facts, and no understanding of how the techniques and mathematics underlying modern machine learning are substantially different than what researchers were focusing on in the 80s.
- baybal2 9y ago>substantially different than what researchers were focusing on in the 80s. ?? Weren't the neural network stuff and evolutionary algos all hip in mid-eighties?
- pixl97 9y agoI'll go as far to say that it didn't matter if we had the secret software algorithm to intelligence in the 80s, we couldn't execute it on the necessary hardware. The only examples of learning/intelligence we have are executed on massively parallel systems (brains). Only in the past 5 years or so do we have systems on the necessary scale (GPU/ASIC).
- arethuza 9y agoI don't think so - I was involved in AI research from about '89 to '95 and the field was pretty much dominated by symbolic/logical approaches at that time although these were arguably running out of steam (I left the field because I blundered into the web in '92 and founded a startup in '95).
- lr4444lr 9y agoSimple perceptrons, yes. Feed forward, RNNs, CNNs, SVMs, gradient methods, and the rest? Not so sure about that. I know that genetic algorithms do sometimes get discussed today, but they are a small part of the community discussion, IMO. Not to mention that research in non-linear optimization and attendant numerical methods definitely made some breakthroughs in the 1990s.
- lottin 9y agoComputers aren't substantially different from 18th century looms. The perception that computers are intelligent is a mere illusion.
- baybal2 9y agoMachine learning is American version of the "5th generation computing" : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_generation_computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_generation_computer
- SirHound 9y agoAt this point, the velocity is too great to stop AI before it can solve most of the problems listed in this post (which are, from today's vantage point, relatively low-hanging fruit). I can see an argument that we might not make it to super-intelligence but we'll still solve a bunch of problems on the way. Weird post.
- thinbeige 9y agoI like that some people dare to challenge AI and get upvoted. There were def some achievements in AI the last decades but when I look how the brain works--or to be more precise: Nobody has a clue how our brain works, we only know that it seems to be so different to a semiconductor and before we do not know more about the brain how should achieve real AI?
- dalbasal 9y agoWhn it comes to reasoning about AI and automation, and their potential effects on employment I think hjournalism is doing a terrible job. There's a borderline dishonest blurring of the lines between has-happened, is-happening and may-happen. ..automation is eradicating our jobs. But — unlike in the past — new ones aren’t being created to replace them. This is very often written about as if it had already happened or at least halfway there. As of right now, this is still a speculation about a future that may happen, not some known fact about the past or present. This reason that I bring it up here is that this article is specifically about "what if we're wrong about the future." Predicting is hard. Predicting technology, predicting economy, predicting culture... It's all hard and we need to remember that we're speculating. If we travel back to the futures predicted 70 years ago (as he suggests), many of them were wrong. Keynes predicted drastically shortned workweeks. The era was named the "nulcear age" or "Space Age." There were also predictions about the continuation of the mechanisation (a close cousin of automation) trend, which did turn out to be true. Keynes' workweek never happened, even thoug the workforce grew as women joined it. The space & nuclear ages kind of happened, but so far nothing earth shattering has resulted. The continuation of the industrialization-mechanisation trend has resulted in much cheaper durable and consumable goods. Cutlery, soap and such is very cheap.
- calafrax 9y ago> automation is eradicating our jobs. But — unlike in the past — new ones aren’t being created to replace them He presents no evidence to support this claim, and it is most likely false. If you remove resources from some sector, and people become unemployed, but total resources were increased due to improved efficiency then those displaced people will more than likely figure out how to get some of those resources rather than starving to death.
- DiThi 9y agoYour argument is as speculative if not more. Resources are not all equal. The ex driver or ex cashier is not going to starve to death. But it's not getting the same salary, if any at all.
- jfoster 9y agoThe premise is wrong. "We’ve been told the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is right around the corner. But what if it isn’t?" Google Photos already picks out objects in photos to make photos searchable by keyword, removes obstructions (eg. fences) from photos. Tesla cars already automatically follow the speed limit, automatically brake, automate lane changes, etc. A few years ago this article might've had a valid point, but not anymore.
- calafrax 9y agoThese things are not "intelligence" though. they are gimmicks that can only be applied to a very limited range of problems. These advances are advances but they do not prove that general ai is possible.
- sho 9y ago> they do not prove that general ai is possible Is there anyone who seriously believes that AGI isn't possible? I thought the only argument was about the timeline. To me it's absolutely inevitable, even if it may not be in my lifetime. I mean if we really can't do it with computers, then we'll just genetically engineer a giant brain in a vat or something. Still artificial! But unless you have some convincing evidence that human intellect is at the very limit of some speed-of-light-like universal constant, you bet we'll build something better. Eventually. All of these articles basically make me think of a newspaper in 1915: "What if human flight is a failed dream?" Just wait, buddy. Rome wasn't built in a day, or even a decade.
- frgtpsswrdlame 9y agoThey remind me more of cold fusion.
- sho 9y agoThen you're pretty damn confused. The two are not even remotely comparable.
- lngnmn 9y agoThe classic AI (as in the AIMA book), it seems, got it right - heuristic-based search, guided by feedback (to improve an heuristic) is what intelligence is in general. Every living organism posseses intelligence (by the process of trial-and-error, which is a search, to "learn" an "optimal" heuristics with selection by the process of evolution) of some kind relative to its environment. This is how a bacteria fought viruses, for example. The problem is to find a good-enough heuristic, or to "extract" one from the actual (not imaginary) features of the environment and "train" it. This is, roughly, how ensimes has been made. This second goal is murderously hard, because to select right set of features which adequately represent some aspects of reality (as it is, not as we imagine or know it is) is where humanity is still failing miserably.
- delegate 9y agoI personally consider another possibility : AI is already here and we're all slaves to it already, we're just in denial of being in control. It's just a matter of interpretation. Right now, machines dominate our life from the moment we wake up till the moment we go to sleep with our phones beside us. It runs the world - guides the ships, planes, cars, drilling machines, financial system and so on. The symbiosis makes us feel like we have a say - in practice, any of us can do absolutely nothing to stop it or change its course. Our power starts and ends with the branch we're working on - then our pull request will be merged into master - and that's pretty much the value of the company we're working for - source code for apps that run and interoperate in the cloud. The illusion is that we're doing it for other people, the reality is that we do what the machine requires us to do so that it's even more pervasive in everyone's lives. Overexposed to machines, people are too numb and apathetic to notice or care about whatever new app or service or product. Well, it's just another way to look at it, otherwise there're lots of great things about the machine - maybe it will even save us from ourselves - question is, why ?
- wu-ikkyu 9y agoI forget where but I've read of this theory before: that what constitutes a true AI is constantly redefined as the level of development that we have not yet achieved, so as to be invisible
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- throw2016 9y agoI think many continue to underestimate human beings. It reflects a curious mix of lack of self awareness, a certain capacity for self aggrandizement and hubris, reductionism of basic human tasks and confusing under-achievement in others with general human potential. A lot of the current hype far from demonstrating a firm grasp of the problem rest on reductionism and betray a shallow child like perspective of humanity. AI is going to take a far greater understanding of ourselves and our environment that we currently possess and like all advancement it will be exciting when and if we achieve it. Self driving cars will happen, but in far constrained and controlled environments than our roads today putting a perspective on current capabilities. Car manufacturers have been extremely slow to adopt technology and have been stuck in a time warp for nearly 20-30 years. Had they been faster a lot of the tech and sensors that deliver better situational awareness in self driving cars today would have made our roads far safer than they currently are.
- Spooky23 9y agoAI is amazing. Hype isn't. Look at something like smartphones. We all pretend that the iPhone invented the segment... but I had a shitty PDA that was a 2nd cousin to the iphone a decade before, and a functionally equivalent if not polished iPaq in the 2003/2004 timeframe. I used Google maps on a AMPS data plan in 2005. AI is a tool, and just like with "natural intelligence" that we walk around with in our heads, its foundational but only transformative when we apply intelligence to solve problems. There's no magic.
- xxxdarrenxxx 9y agoThe problem with AI is that the word has become layman-y. AI at a glance seems so heavily focused on both technical aspects (ie. computing power), and modeling a human's cognitive train off thought. So many neural networks around which outwit/out-strategize humans, but how about other aspects humans use to solve problems. People doing something "crazy", based on a "gut instinct" for example. I have yet to see a serious neural network (company/research) that models "gut feelings", because in the "real world", many people have found success and solved problems/made decisions in every branch and form based on a "gut feeling". To add a few more to the list, I'd love for someone to give me a link to a neural network emulating the following traits which very much have proven to drive humans to advancement and problem solving: - intuition - motivation - "taste"(opinion) - empathy; A judge reducing or increasing sentence based on the intricacies off an isolated situation, and not on pure objectivity (IE. 1 murder 5 years, 2 murder 10 years etc.) The law seldom is this absolute, precisely because off human traits, and being able to acknowledge and take into account this variable is a case off empathy moreso than math / logical deduction. Nuance by it's very definition is not absolute. - inspiration - hope etc. A different perspective: Imagine your on a springboard at the pool for the first time. You don't have any memory off you doing a jump on your brain's "hard drive", so the uncertainty and the fear off jumping is valid. A computer might end up in a crash, because it loops infinitely false, until a memory is found containing the info that a jump can be successful, which will never come. However, you look behind u, and there is social pressure to jump. The fear off being laughed at intervenes in this loop, and u make the jump. Humans rarely "crash", because we are not as bound to logic as a computer. This is why a computer excels in terms off reliability with math. Because a computer is absolute, 1 + 1 will always result in 2 on every calculator ever, but as soon as unknown parameters are introduced, it becomes that much more difficult to keep it running. Our emotional side is as double edged as can be, without it we would crash if we can't logically solve something, but equally reduce reliability ("human error"), when emotions overrule logic entirely. Off course one might say, just solve it with an automatic breakout after 10 iterations, but now you wrote an (conscious) edge case. Humans improvise. I think almost every person has been in or witnessed a situation, where they (logically/rationally) concluded that "he should not do it / bad odds", then proceed to see this person make it anyway resulting in succes. TLDR; AI has seen many advancement, modeling a humans capability off functions that can be compared to a humans prefrontal cortex, but the hippocampus, amygdala, cerebellum to name a few are parts which I have yet to see a promising existing computer version off, but are vital to our ability to become as a race to the point where we are at. As a final anecdote, there was this guy which through an accident had his brain split between the front and the rest (emotional parts). Nurses came in with 2 meals to choose from, but he could no decide. The nurses found this peculiar.. "just pick one", but he just froze, BSOD on them. He said there was no logical reason to pick one or the other. He's absolutely right, there isn't, yet he'd die if he doesn't pick one. Our brain never ends up in absolute false. When it does, emotions pick up and solve it, perhaps imperfectly, but "life goes on".
- d--b 9y agoWhen we discovered electricity, some people thought we could revive the dead with it. When we invented steam engines, some people thought that we could make brains out of steam. When we invented computers, some people were quick to say that computers would replicate human thoughts. Though these technologies did not match the wildest dreams, they had massive impacts on humanity. While you can certainly criticize the hype around AI, you can't deny the advances made by self driving vehicles. That in itself is a major technological leap, and will revolutionize the transport industry. I think that robots that perform some more complex tasks - such as filling amazon boxes, picking fruits, cooking stuff, and so on - may not be very far away. General intelligence/consciousness is not there, clearly, but there are some elements of technology that somehow resemble the way the brain works, and that we can find some useful cases for. That's really all that matters
- philf 9y agoWe do revive the (recently) dead using electricity.
- lefnire 9y agoI wouldn't compare AI to mars colonization. AI is coming in strong, we've made tremendous progress - mars colonization is still in its infancy / theoretics. AI's a constant-moving target of a definition; by all accounts, we've "achieved" AI already if you'd ask someone from 50 years ago. Art, music, conversation, research, ... If he wants to say "what if the Singularity never happens," that's fine and good - but it just seems weird to me to say "what if AI never happens." It's like saying "what if self driving cars never happen" just because he's not yet driving one. False-starts: in this regard, AI is like VR. VR had its own winter too, after Virtual Boy and the like. We're in VRs second stand; same as AI. And in both cases, both are making a very strong case, and making lots of money. I'd put my money on both horses now.
- nthcolumn 9y agoWe have been dreaming this dream a long time now and are no closer really. I'm sure you've all done this - one of the very first things I ever made was what was known way back then as an 'expert system'. It determined which particular disease you had by means of a series of interview questions from 'Robodoc'. I drew flowcharts and planned it all out with the limited set of diseases, symptoms and remedies available to me and was as you can imagine nothing more than an horrendous spaghetti of if-then-else (or maybe even switch-case statements) the fall through answer (when all diagnoses failed) being 'take two aspirin and go to bed'. Even then I thought 'bah not enough data - the bane of the computer scientist!' I think I was about eight at the time. Looking back now I think it was cute. Anything other than flu and rabies and you were in trouble. Is Robodoc closer to Watson than Watson is to HAL? People are conflating AI and machine learning. They think AI is already here. Personally I don't think any one team or project will ever solve AI as real intelligence is an emergent property.
- logicallee 9y agoYour brain weighs about 3 lbs and uses about 20 watts. It's an analog device. It does not have optical interconnects and the switching speeds of the components within it are governed by chemical rather than electrical processes: signals within it propagate at under a few thousandths of a percent of the speed of light. It takes about 3 years to boot up and begin to be sensible and over 12-15 years it achieves roughly human intelligence. Well before those 15 years it surpasses all of our AI in a variety of tasks for which AI is not intelligent enough. The brain does lots of things, but some of them are quite small and well-defined intelligent tasks, such as judging the meaning of a sentence it is parsing in a language it has learned, or other "AI"-type work. We can easily estimate whether it is doing so correctly. (For example through reading comprehension tests, which we have standardized.) Human brains are able to pass these tests and our best AI fails these tests. The only way that there is no digital device that can ever model these aspects of this analog device well enough to make the same meaningful calculations (such as deciding what a sentence means in the context of human culture), i.e. the only way the analog device has a monopoly on the calculation and judgment it performs, for not only the next 10, 30, 50, or 100 years, but 1,000 or even 10,000 years, is if this analog device is a keyfob to a magical ethereal plane where our souls and consciousness do all the real intelligent work, only communicating back to our corporeal selves through an antenna which is our brain. Under that scenario it is certainly possible that AI will be a failed dream forever. After all, rather than 3 lbs of analog device doing work, our ethereal selves could each be the size of a billions of our universes. Then it would be silly to imagine we could ever accurately model any part of that. I don't think it's a false dichotomy here - I think it's one or the other. In my personal opinion the latter scenario is unlikely. In my personal scenario anyone who says that nothing digital will ever capture the calculating power of 3 lbs of meat is living on the same side of history as Lord Kelvin when he announced "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible". To the exact and same extent, true AI is impossible.
- beachbum8029 9y agoThis guy gets it.
- beachbum8029 9y agoWhat are people going to do when AI learns to write alarmist click-baity blog posts?
- beachbum8029 9y agoI imagine the AI of the future will have a good laugh when it stumbles onto this thread. If it can laugh...
- julianmarq 9y ago> A flatworm can dream. Can't ze? What was that at the end? was that tumblrspeak? Isn't "it" used for animals and this person forgot because "ze" spent too much time talking with people better left alone? Likely. In any case, I stopped reading at that point, I guess after the "second shift" comment (as a male living alone) and the false claim of jobs not being created to replace the old ones, those two letters were just too much baseless moralizing.