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United Airlines piloting technology to manage the problem of oversold flights
- elygre 9y agoFor a second I thought they were going to start using transactions, to avoid selling seats that they don't have.
- tomhoward 9y agoThe company mentioned in the article as the provider of this technology, Volantio, is the entity that was previously called Adioso, which was in YC in 2009. Some HN readers may remember some blog posts I wrote a few years ago about the struggles we went through. If you ever wondered what happened to Adioso, well, here's part of the answer. The company took the insights and technology assets it had developed for the consumer market and turned them into enterprise services to offer to airlines, and that has been the focus for the past 3-4 years. As evidenced by this breakthrough, it has turned out to be a very good move. The original Adioso product still exists but in a different entity, and its current status is best described as side-project. I'm still optimistic that the original vision we had for Adioso as a consumer product will be realised, but it will end up looking very different to what it's been to date. In the meantime, it's extremely pleasing to see Volantio making such an impact.
- thomasahle 9y agoGiven you know the market well, how would you find a cheap destination given two different places of departure? For example, you live in country A and your special someone lives in country B, and you want to list countries C and airports in order of smallest sum of two return tickets. Is there an api that flight search websites use, which you can get access to? Or are there already websites offering such a feature?
- robjan 9y agoThe closest to an API which aggregates all flights is a Global Distribution System (GDS), of which there are three in common use. Airlines publish their inventory on the GDS and travel agents book through them. There are some exceptions. GDS cost money so budget airlines usually don't bother with them. In that case, they may publish an API which agents may consume, or the agent may screen scrape them.
- jlangenauer 9y agoStrangely enough, I was just talking to someone here in Berlin last night about Adioso, and was wondering what happened to it. Good to see you guys still going, albeit in a new form.
- dmbaggett 9y agoVery cool! We did some possibly relevant stuff at ITA way back in the day -- ping me. :)
- jorvi 9y agoAdioso is amazing! Lots of people cite SkyScanner as their favorite site to search for flights, but you guys really take the pain out booking, since you optimize for price, hops, layover time, etc. Thanks :)
- chrisbolt 9y agoDelta’s had this since 2011: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/how-delta-masters-the-game-of-overbooking-flights/ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/how-delta-masters-t...
- fencepost 9y agoMore significantly, Delta does this at check in time and solicits bids, aka 'volunteering.' Because the people involved have volunteered, Delta can accept the lowest bids AND because people have volunteered there's a big reduction in legal protections of that becomes significant - they volunteered and surrendered their seats, they weren't bumped.
- chx 9y agoUnited is also soliciting volunteers at check in. I got $400 in Austin in 2014 to fly a day later. Sweet! Their first offer was $120 which I refused. But certainly Delta has been paying more, it was a 3000+ ppl computer conference ending and some sports event at the same time so the airport was a total gong show and Delta paid a friend of mine $1200 to not fly to New York.
- Jonnax 9y agoIs that real money or vouchers? If it is vouchers, do you still need to pay fees on top of that?
- paulmd 9y agoAlso, vouchers can usually only be redeemed directly through the airline, which usually means you'll be paying a "full price" fare. That $300 flight you buy on Orbitz is considered a hugely discounted fare. The same seat at "full fare" would be $900-1000. So in this example, if you got a $400 voucher for being bumped from another equivalent trip, the expected value of the voucher is -$200 because you would have to pay the airline ($900 - 400 = $500) to book that $300 seat. You would need to combine multiple vouchers before it made financial sense.
- boyter 9y agoI don't really understand the reasoning behind overselling seats. Every time I hear it happen when passing though the USA I am reminded of the Seinfeld line, "You know how to take the reservation, but not how to hold the reservation." Clearly there is some sort of profit motive for the airlines, but how can this be legal. It seems wrong to oversell a limited resource like this. Even if not legal it feels scammy on the lines of "upto" speeds for ISP's.
- rusanu 9y agoSometimes people miss flights, or last minute cancel, for various reasons. If past statistics show the every 200 seats plane has 10 no-show passengers at departure on average, you can sell 210 tickets in average and depart with every seat occupied. Hotels do it too, and many more industries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overselling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overselling
- kylec 9y agoI used to work front desk for a hotel and we never oversold our capacity. In fact, we would normally block a few of our rooms from being able to be reserved in case of unexpected maintenance issues. If no maintenance issues arose we would sell those rooms to walk-ins. I can't imagine working someplace where, as a matter of course, people with reservations are turned away due to overbooking. It's likely that such a place would not last very long either, because as soon as people read TripAdvisor reviews about how your property doesn't honor its reservations they will stay elsewhere.
- Someone 9y agoAirlines are different: people typically visit web sites to compare prices, not service. I think you'll find hotels targeting backpackers overbook, too (if they allow reservations, at all)
- thomasahle 9y agoHow would that work? So you arrive at your hotel, they tell you it's overbooked and you can sleep there for free the day after? That's hardly useful.
- horsecaptin 9y agoUnited's problems aren't technological, they are cultural. It is their culture that created the terrible episodes that we're so used to seeing.
- bryanrasmussen 9y agoI was expecting the technology they were piloting was stun guns.
- bechampion 9y agoSeems like a good opportunity for "Aviato" to chip in
- dboreham 9y agoDarn. There has to be a word for the feeling when you see someone else has posted your clever comment already :(
- tiku 9y agoWhy not just sell the overbooked seats AS overbooked seats. So the person booking that seat knows, it might happen, or not.. In that case the tickets are more interesting to people who can get a flight a day later without problems etc.. Simple money back policy so it wont resort to incidents with cops or buyout money..
- Simon_says 9y agoThey already are; they're just not marketed as such. If you want a non-overbooked seat, fly first class.
- tiku 9y agoExactly my point, they could and should market them as such.. Even could be forced by the government for it, because it is a different product than a seat that is available..
- peteretep 9y agoBecause that's not solving any particular problem for the airline. The United fuckup was almost entirely due to the operating airline being too stingy with payout money, and that policy is now changed. The technology in question is making that process more efficient, only, rather than fundamentally changing it, because the PROCESS WORKS.
- IIAOPSW 9y agoUnited Airlines piloting technology to close barn door after horse has bolted.
- Hnrobert42 9y agoI find it amusing that the article describes United solving the problem of oversold flights as if United didn't create the problem itself.
- tialaramex 9y agoCustomers created the problem, not United. People want to pay the _absolute_ minimum possible to travel, no exceptions. If you tell people "For $5 more we won't have you kicked in the head by an angry toddler" people loudly tell each other "Yeah, yeah, I really want that, $5 is a steal". And then, they click "No thanks" and say to themselves "Saved myself $5" Every safety feature on an aeroplane is there because it's mandated by law. If you let people go without for a dollar, people who'd use a dollar to wrap used gum will forego the safety to save a dollar, because people think of every dollar spent on air travel as somehow "wasted" even as they simultaneously complain about how awful air travel is. Over the years Airlines have _tried_ telling customers they're interested in offering a better service for a higher price, and customers almost all say that's what they want, and almost all choose a different, cheaper airline. This is the customers' fault, as clear as day.
- TillE 9y agoThis is an incredibly popular meme, with absolutely zero compelling evidence to support it. Airlines are, in general, incredibly bad at advertising the small ways in which their coach seats are better. You have to go to weird niche websites to find this information. And you're blaming the customers here?
- mrfusion 9y agoThey really just need a technology for treating people with dignity and respect.
- dwighttk 9y agoIs it dragging?
- mrmcd 9y agoOh boy, a "travel voucher" that likely has so many restrictions it's worth 1/10th the actual number printed on it. I'm not gonna hold my breath these people will actually offer cash.
- Sleeep 9y agoThe vast majority of travel vouchers are never redeemed. It's like printing free money for them! http://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/travel-wise-donrsquot-take-that-airline-voucher-mdash-go-for-cash/ http://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/travel-wise-donrsquo... > >Redemption rates on vouchers hover somewhere between 5 percent and 8 percent
- cgtyoder 9y agoIT'S NOT A TECHNOLOGY PROBLEM
- shazeubaa 9y ago"United Airlines piloting technology" -- I see what you did there.
- mikeash 9y agoSounds like a decent idea overall, except once again they're sticking to those stupid useless travel vouchers instead of paying people actual money. You want to solve this problem? Offer cash. I'd volunteer to be bumped 99% of the time if they offered cash. As it is, my percentage is 0.
- colinbartlett 9y agoIsn't this what happens in Europe because of some regulations? I recall being involuntarily bumped from a US-bound flight in the UK once and they handed me cash. Well, they handed me a voucher which I had to take to a specific window in the airport where they put euro bills in my hands.
- dmoy 9y agoThere is a law in the US that they are required to give you cash. However they will always ask if anyone wants to volunteer for a voucher first, and keep raising the value of the voucher. If nobody takes it, whoever gets bumped gets cash. Usually that never happens. You can go to the faa website and read how much cash, it's some multiple of the ticket price.
- mikeash 9y agoThat's not quite the same. Bumping people involuntarily and paying them the minimum cash required by law is how you end up with security beating people up to get them off the plane. I don't think that law should exist. They should be required to pay whatever it takes to get enough people to go willingly.
- bb611 9y agoThe offered price of the bump wasn't the only failure, or even the most important failure, in that chain of events. Note that this behavior is extremely, unbelievably rare. N=1 over hundreds of millions of flights rare. There is a lot of other discontent regarding bumping on oversold flights, but the existence of a cash minimum doesn't by necessity lead to assaulting passengers.
- Grue3 9y agoThey're now going to use robots to beat passengers up?
- barkingcat 9y agoNo need to beat them up. The new robots are licensed to dispense tranquilizers so the passengers become compliant.
- nathancahill 9y agodef buy_ticket(): if soldout: return False
- wallacoloo 9y agoI mean, don't we already have "standby flying" where you can show up at the last call time and claim seats purchased by no-showers? The bit about having to overbook to fill capacity is bogus - as long as standby flights are cheap enough, people will accept the inconvenience/risk of standby flying and fill the remaining seats. Of course, the real issue is a monetary one for the airlines because standby tickets have to be discounted. But as a customer, I still advocate against overbooking.
- jasode 9y ago>as long as standby flights are cheap enough, people will accept If you're open to using financial incentives like cheaper pre-arranged "standby" flights, why is that better than auctioning cash/vouchers to willing passengers volunteering to be bumped? The problem with your proposal is that all the passengers are forever sorted into "guaranteed" and "standby" according to first-come-first-served: |timeline of bookings -->--> |-- guaranteed --|--- standby --| However, order-by-reservation-timing does not reflect the true priorities of the passengers on the day of the flight. Many of (possibly most) of the passengers that bought the earlier "guaranteed seats" happen to be the ones most willing to accept financial compensation for bumping. In terms of game theory and fairness, calculated overbooking based on stable historical trends seems to be the most optimal strategy that benefits the most people. The real issue is that the airlines implement the compensation incorrectly. Instead of blaming the overbooking, blame the airlines' compensation rules: 1) offer cash instead of vouchers 2) eliminate silly rules about caps 3) start the auction process as early as possible in the lounge area instead of waiting until the last minute by standing in the aisle of the plane with a bunch of impatient passengers. (With American Airlines, their check-in kiosks will sometimes alert passengers and give them the option of being voluntarily bumped.)
- jasode 9y agoThat simplistic code will result in airplanes flying with empty seats. Since jet fuel airplanes are probably the most expensive form of travel that's 2nd only to space tourism flights on liquid oxygen rockets, it would be an irresponsible waste of energy. To be clear about the specific problem we're trying to solve, it's the involuntary bumping instead of the voluntary ones. Why is using "empty seats" the superior solution instead of raising the financial incentives to attract volunteers to be bumped?
- opticalflow 9y agoWell, all I can say as a former Continental Platinum (and later United 1K) is that the combination has resulted in the uttermost cesspool of service, fees, annoyances, and outright insults (thanks for stranding me overnight in Louisville KY on my way home to NJ and not even giving me a voucher for a hotel!). Anything they can do to improve service is fine in my book, but I'm not holding my breath. And just don't get me started on upgrades, delays, and bumps... let's just say I never fly United unless it's a direct flight.
- exabrial 9y agoWith the exception of Southwest, everyone else is as bad or worse than United.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- bogomipz 9y ago>"This week, United Airlines Inc. is quietly unveiling a new technology platform that it will use to manage the problem of oversold flights—and, in the same breath, turn them into a profit opportunity." Not fix the problem but "manage" it. Imagine telling your boss you've decided to manage a problem instead of fixing the root cause. >"With the help of its new Flex-Schedule Program, the airline is piloting a way to buck the trend of involuntary bumping—the term for kicking passengers off oversold flights—without necessarily offering four-figure payouts to passengers at the gate, or curbing their practice of overselling inventory." Rather than fix a problem that they themselves are responsible for they are instead going to treat it as a "revenue stream"? Why is this even legal? If you experienced this at a car dealer, a restaurant or a hotel you would never do business with them again. Is there any other industry that knowingly engages in selling the exact same item to two different people only to cause stress to one of those two people? They are still bumping you, they just aren't doing it at the last minute. Vote with your wallet and avoid this airline altogether.