3 ms·

i would guess one decade at most in many countries. The last person to ever need a driving license for private transportation has already been born imo* *in co

i would guess one decade at most in many countries. The last person to ever need a driving license for private transportation has already been born imo* *in countries with reasonably advanced infrastructure and somewhat stable economies

tw04 9y ago
I'll believe that when I see it. Try using autonomous driving in the snow and get back to me. Nothing they've presented or have even talked about being on the roadmap solves the issue.
- lern_too_spel 9y ago
  Autonomous ride services will come to sunny cities first, but the amount of money to be made in transportation guarantees that snowy cities like NYC and Boston won't have to wait many more years after. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-clever-way-fords-self-driving-cars-navigate-in-snow/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-cleve... https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366 https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366
- Animats 9y ago
  Ford [1] has been testing automatic driving in snow. Waymo and Nvidia have said they are, but don't have videos out. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro
  - falcolas 9y ago
    It heartens me to see this. Still very early in the process though - that's pretty close to the best case snow (it is awfully wet, which can be a pain), perfectly clean sensors, great visibility, and moving at about 5mph (as a point of comparison Montana drivers would be going at or near the speed limit in similar conditions - >45 for the gentle curves, 25 leading into the right angle turns). I also saw the car starting to break free (i.e. start a sideways slide) just as they clipped to another scene; that's what I want to see more of. It's an unavoidable occurrence in winter driving conditions, and the proper recovery to those is the most important skill to learn to drive on snow.
    - ucho 9y ago
      > perfectly clean sensors I saw thin layer of ice appear on parking sensors after few minutes of driving in snowy conditions, triggering "close object" warnings. And cars get dirty all the time, I wonder if cars will end up with separate wiper for each sensor.
      - Animats 9y ago
        Google has a wiper on one of their car-top sensors. Another trick is to alternately spray wiper fluid and air to clean sensors. We had that on our DARPA Grand Challenge vehicle, and the upcoming Continental LIDAR seems to have a spray nozzle. The SICK LMS is available with a scanner glass with heating elements, so ice can be cleared. All those problems have been solved by good mechanical engineering.
        falcolas 9y ago
        > All those problems have been solved by good mechanical engineering. And yet we're still limited to scraping blades made from rubber over tempered glass with the help of a bit of liquid cleaner... Given how bug guts require a good bit of manual scrubbing to clear off a windshield and the cumulative impact of rock impacts, I'm not convinced they'll stay clear for any meaningful amount of time - at least not on a commuter vehicle timescale. Heated glass will help, but it's not a guaranteed thing; ask anyone with a rear window defroster how long it takes to clear ice and snow off.
  - tw04 9y ago
    So, 5mph on roads that already have tracks for the car to follow and barriers for it to see on either side. Curbs that aren't buried. Street signs and lights lining the road. I live 5 miles outside of the nearest town and frequently have to drive long before a plow hits the road and long before it has warmed up enough for blacktop to be visible. That video doesn't even prove they can handle ACTUAL conditions when it's snowing in anything but the most ideal situation and at a speed that would require me spending 4 hours to get to work. I mean... it's better than nothing but it's definitely not something that changes my mind on it being ridiculous to think that's replacing a human driver anytime soon.
gambiting 9y ago
I come from a 1st world country where the average car is 12 years old. Unless you can buy a level-4 car today(tip: you can't) 90% saturation in a decade is just impossible. I think 40-50 years is the likely target.

tw04 9y ago

I'll believe that when I see it. Try using autonomous driving in the snow and get back to me. Nothing they've presented or have even talked about being on the roadmap solves the issue.

lern_too_spel 9y ago
Autonomous ride services will come to sunny cities first, but the amount of money to be made in transportation guarantees that snowy cities like NYC and Boston won't have to wait many more years after. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-clever-way-fords-self-driving-cars-navigate-in-snow/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-cleve... https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366 https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366
Animats 9y ago
Ford [1] has been testing automatic driving in snow. Waymo and Nvidia have said they are, but don't have videos out. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro
- falcolas 9y ago
  It heartens me to see this. Still very early in the process though - that's pretty close to the best case snow (it is awfully wet, which can be a pain), perfectly clean sensors, great visibility, and moving at about 5mph (as a point of comparison Montana drivers would be going at or near the speed limit in similar conditions - >45 for the gentle curves, 25 leading into the right angle turns). I also saw the car starting to break free (i.e. start a sideways slide) just as they clipped to another scene; that's what I want to see more of. It's an unavoidable occurrence in winter driving conditions, and the proper recovery to those is the most important skill to learn to drive on snow.
  - ucho 9y ago
    > perfectly clean sensors I saw thin layer of ice appear on parking sensors after few minutes of driving in snowy conditions, triggering "close object" warnings. And cars get dirty all the time, I wonder if cars will end up with separate wiper for each sensor.
    - Animats 9y ago
      Google has a wiper on one of their car-top sensors. Another trick is to alternately spray wiper fluid and air to clean sensors. We had that on our DARPA Grand Challenge vehicle, and the upcoming Continental LIDAR seems to have a spray nozzle. The SICK LMS is available with a scanner glass with heating elements, so ice can be cleared. All those problems have been solved by good mechanical engineering.
      - falcolas 9y ago
        > All those problems have been solved by good mechanical engineering. And yet we're still limited to scraping blades made from rubber over tempered glass with the help of a bit of liquid cleaner... Given how bug guts require a good bit of manual scrubbing to clear off a windshield and the cumulative impact of rock impacts, I'm not convinced they'll stay clear for any meaningful amount of time - at least not on a commuter vehicle timescale. Heated glass will help, but it's not a guaranteed thing; ask anyone with a rear window defroster how long it takes to clear ice and snow off.
- tw04 9y ago
  So, 5mph on roads that already have tracks for the car to follow and barriers for it to see on either side. Curbs that aren't buried. Street signs and lights lining the road. I live 5 miles outside of the nearest town and frequently have to drive long before a plow hits the road and long before it has warmed up enough for blacktop to be visible. That video doesn't even prove they can handle ACTUAL conditions when it's snowing in anything but the most ideal situation and at a speed that would require me spending 4 hours to get to work. I mean... it's better than nothing but it's definitely not something that changes my mind on it being ridiculous to think that's replacing a human driver anytime soon.

gambiting 9y ago

I come from a 1st world country where the average car is 12 years old. Unless you can buy a level-4 car today(tip: you can't) 90% saturation in a decade is just impossible. I think 40-50 years is the likely target.