7 ms·

People will have to drive for quite the foreseeable time in the future(Think of few decades). These are just better traction control systems, with some acciden

by kamaal 9y ago

People will have to drive for quite the foreseeable time in the future(Think of few decades). These are just better traction control systems, with some accident detection and avoidance thrown in. Nothing much. You will still do bulk of the work.

JCzynski 9y ago
Bet you $100 that, in 2035, >10% of the cars on the road are level-4 autonomous or higher, and >90% of new cars sold are level-4 autonomous or higher.
- kamaal 9y ago
  In the country where I stay(India), this doesn't look possible. Might be possible in the US though. But you don't exactly have a self driving car, if you can only drive in specific conditions.
  - King-Aaron 9y ago
    I think this is something which is brushed off too often in these conversations. In the context of US-posters (in many forums I've seen), it seems very likely to them that within 20 or so years, autonomous cars will take over. There's already a big change there happening in consumer driving habits, and I guess that because it's where a lot of the technology is being developed the roll-out is a lot more obvious. Here in places like Australia, I don't forsee it happening on the same scale in the same timeframe. There are different factors here such as the immense distances, inconsistent road surfaces and those bloody Kangaroos which is going to pose real challenges for automakers, as they already have been. I don't think it's going to be that long before learning to drive is purely an optional thing in the same way learning to ride a horse is, but I think it'll be a fair bit longer than people are mentioning here. At least globally.
    - pfisch 9y ago
      Kangaroos are really no different then deer in this context.
      - King-Aaron 9y ago
        They actually are proving to be pretty difficult and different from other fauna obstacles https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-cant-figure-out-kangaroos/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-ca...
        roel_v 9y ago
        Different yes, but they only started looking into them in 2015. To claim that it would be a blocking factor for getting l3 cars operational in Oz is a stretch.
      - twothamendment 9y ago
        In my parts even the deer aren't the same. The white tail and mule deer don't behave the same. I know I react differently to them. I can see why a kangaroo might cause issues too.
    - twothamendment 9y ago
      There is a large portion of land in the US (area, not population) that is in the same boat as you - minus the kangaroos. Challenges in my area and others: Cell reception is not just poor, it often doesn't exist. GPS on my phone and car drop now and then. Maybe to many trees? Roads are of varying condition and can change anytime. Some you know not to go on in certain weather, etc. Road maps are still wrong. I've fixed the ones I care about on Google. Some roads don't exist, others have addressing issues that are so bad it will put you in the wrong end of the county. I'd enjoy a self driving car, but they are a long ways off in my area and many others. I'm sure it will happen, but it is a whole different world than a city. I don't know that making it work in the middle of nowhere is worse than a city, but it is a different set of problems and manufacturers will of course target the cities first. So to you in the outback (not the Subaru), you aren't alone. Most discussion about what life is like in the US doesn't apply to me either.
    - hjnilsson 9y ago
      US actually has a considerably competitive advantage in that their roads (especially in cities) are so much easier to navigate than in Europe. "Autonomous" vehicles are SO far away from navigating European cities. Picked a few random locations (all two-way roads by the way, often with pedestrian and bicycle traffic). It's probably 30 years out when a car can drive these: * Lausanne, Switzerland: https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.36h,81.38t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sUlFBpZKWczFKoRFCIrttOg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.... * Polignano, Italy https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9h,85.8t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D58.179623%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9... (driven this one myself, and remember thinking that it would be close to impossible for an autonomous vehicle) * Paris, France https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.63h,85.71t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D128.0682%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.6... (one way) * Zagreb, Crotia https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320.75h,82.76t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sU6W_HLzoIrG2lWV7g55mSQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320...
      - Doctor_Fegg 9y ago
        To be fair, Audis don't have the best reputation among (UK) cyclists for navigating considerately even when there's a human behind the wheel.
    - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
      HN is a SV echo chamber. It will be a very long time before self driving cars are practical in parts of the US that do not have comparatively easy conditions for all the reasons you mentioned. Some cities in the southeast that have good automotive infrastructure will see adoption soon after the southwest. Self driving cars won't be typical in Boston or NYC for longer. Those sorts of cities don't have stupid proof markings for traffic flow the way cities that were built out post WWII do so there's a lot more subtle things involved in day to day driving that are hard problems by themselves. Odd intersections, potholes, situations where typical behavior is dependent on traffic volume, snow, etc. Rural areas add another set of unique edge cases. Nobody is gonna pay extra for a car that can't deal with a set of conditions they encounter frequently. Have any Indian companies poured big money into driver-less cars lately?
- rimliu 9y ago
  Until AI is good enough to drive without working GPS and internet connection "self-driving" is a bit of misnomer.
kayoone 9y ago
i would guess one decade at most in many countries. The last person to ever need a driving license for private transportation has already been born imo* *in countries with reasonably advanced infrastructure and somewhat stable economies
- tw04 9y ago
  I'll believe that when I see it. Try using autonomous driving in the snow and get back to me. Nothing they've presented or have even talked about being on the roadmap solves the issue.
  - lern_too_spel 9y ago
    Autonomous ride services will come to sunny cities first, but the amount of money to be made in transportation guarantees that snowy cities like NYC and Boston won't have to wait many more years after. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-clever-way-fords-self-driving-cars-navigate-in-snow/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-cleve... https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366 https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366
  - Animats 9y ago
    Ford [1] has been testing automatic driving in snow. Waymo and Nvidia have said they are, but don't have videos out. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro
    - falcolas 9y ago
      It heartens me to see this. Still very early in the process though - that's pretty close to the best case snow (it is awfully wet, which can be a pain), perfectly clean sensors, great visibility, and moving at about 5mph (as a point of comparison Montana drivers would be going at or near the speed limit in similar conditions - >45 for the gentle curves, 25 leading into the right angle turns). I also saw the car starting to break free (i.e. start a sideways slide) just as they clipped to another scene; that's what I want to see more of. It's an unavoidable occurrence in winter driving conditions, and the proper recovery to those is the most important skill to learn to drive on snow.

by kamaal 9y ago

JCzynski 9y ago

Bet you $100 that, in 2035, >10% of the cars on the road are level-4 autonomous or higher, and >90% of new cars sold are level-4 autonomous or higher.

kamaal 9y ago
In the country where I stay(India), this doesn't look possible. Might be possible in the US though. But you don't exactly have a self driving car, if you can only drive in specific conditions.
- King-Aaron 9y ago
  I think this is something which is brushed off too often in these conversations. In the context of US-posters (in many forums I've seen), it seems very likely to them that within 20 or so years, autonomous cars will take over. There's already a big change there happening in consumer driving habits, and I guess that because it's where a lot of the technology is being developed the roll-out is a lot more obvious. Here in places like Australia, I don't forsee it happening on the same scale in the same timeframe. There are different factors here such as the immense distances, inconsistent road surfaces and those bloody Kangaroos which is going to pose real challenges for automakers, as they already have been. I don't think it's going to be that long before learning to drive is purely an optional thing in the same way learning to ride a horse is, but I think it'll be a fair bit longer than people are mentioning here. At least globally.
  - pfisch 9y ago
    Kangaroos are really no different then deer in this context.
    - King-Aaron 9y ago
      They actually are proving to be pretty difficult and different from other fauna obstacles https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-cant-figure-out-kangaroos/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-ca...
      - roel_v 9y ago
        Different yes, but they only started looking into them in 2015. To claim that it would be a blocking factor for getting l3 cars operational in Oz is a stretch.
    - twothamendment 9y ago
      In my parts even the deer aren't the same. The white tail and mule deer don't behave the same. I know I react differently to them. I can see why a kangaroo might cause issues too.
  - twothamendment 9y ago
    There is a large portion of land in the US (area, not population) that is in the same boat as you - minus the kangaroos. Challenges in my area and others: Cell reception is not just poor, it often doesn't exist. GPS on my phone and car drop now and then. Maybe to many trees? Roads are of varying condition and can change anytime. Some you know not to go on in certain weather, etc. Road maps are still wrong. I've fixed the ones I care about on Google. Some roads don't exist, others have addressing issues that are so bad it will put you in the wrong end of the county. I'd enjoy a self driving car, but they are a long ways off in my area and many others. I'm sure it will happen, but it is a whole different world than a city. I don't know that making it work in the middle of nowhere is worse than a city, but it is a different set of problems and manufacturers will of course target the cities first. So to you in the outback (not the Subaru), you aren't alone. Most discussion about what life is like in the US doesn't apply to me either.
  - hjnilsson 9y ago
    US actually has a considerably competitive advantage in that their roads (especially in cities) are so much easier to navigate than in Europe. "Autonomous" vehicles are SO far away from navigating European cities. Picked a few random locations (all two-way roads by the way, often with pedestrian and bicycle traffic). It's probably 30 years out when a car can drive these: * Lausanne, Switzerland: https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.36h,81.38t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sUlFBpZKWczFKoRFCIrttOg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.... * Polignano, Italy https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9h,85.8t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D58.179623%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9... (driven this one myself, and remember thinking that it would be close to impossible for an autonomous vehicle) * Paris, France https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.63h,85.71t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D128.0682%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.6... (one way) * Zagreb, Crotia https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320.75h,82.76t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sU6W_HLzoIrG2lWV7g55mSQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320...
    - Doctor_Fegg 9y ago
      To be fair, Audis don't have the best reputation among (UK) cyclists for navigating considerately even when there's a human behind the wheel.
  - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
    HN is a SV echo chamber. It will be a very long time before self driving cars are practical in parts of the US that do not have comparatively easy conditions for all the reasons you mentioned. Some cities in the southeast that have good automotive infrastructure will see adoption soon after the southwest. Self driving cars won't be typical in Boston or NYC for longer. Those sorts of cities don't have stupid proof markings for traffic flow the way cities that were built out post WWII do so there's a lot more subtle things involved in day to day driving that are hard problems by themselves. Odd intersections, potholes, situations where typical behavior is dependent on traffic volume, snow, etc. Rural areas add another set of unique edge cases. Nobody is gonna pay extra for a car that can't deal with a set of conditions they encounter frequently. Have any Indian companies poured big money into driver-less cars lately?
rimliu 9y ago
Until AI is good enough to drive without working GPS and internet connection "self-driving" is a bit of misnomer.

kayoone 9y ago

i would guess one decade at most in many countries. The last person to ever need a driving license for private transportation has already been born imo* *in countries with reasonably advanced infrastructure and somewhat stable economies

tw04 9y ago
I'll believe that when I see it. Try using autonomous driving in the snow and get back to me. Nothing they've presented or have even talked about being on the roadmap solves the issue.
- lern_too_spel 9y ago
  Autonomous ride services will come to sunny cities first, but the amount of money to be made in transportation guarantees that snowy cities like NYC and Boston won't have to wait many more years after. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-clever-way-fords-self-driving-cars-navigate-in-snow/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-cleve... https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366 https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4013366
- Animats 9y ago
  Ford [1] has been testing automatic driving in snow. Waymo and Nvidia have said they are, but don't have videos out. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdV7em34Ro
  - falcolas 9y ago
    It heartens me to see this. Still very early in the process though - that's pretty close to the best case snow (it is awfully wet, which can be a pain), perfectly clean sensors, great visibility, and moving at about 5mph (as a point of comparison Montana drivers would be going at or near the speed limit in similar conditions - >45 for the gentle curves, 25 leading into the right angle turns). I also saw the car starting to break free (i.e. start a sideways slide) just as they clipped to another scene; that's what I want to see more of. It's an unavoidable occurrence in winter driving conditions, and the proper recovery to those is the most important skill to learn to drive on snow.