4 ms·

>Given our advances in sensing and observing technology we are much more likely to 'see' an advanced civilization before we can actually fly out to meet them.

>Given our advances in sensing and observing technology we are much more likely to 'see' an advanced civilization before we can actually fly out to meet them. I don't think this is really true (though I could be wrong, I am not an astronomer). Sure, we may be able to "see" evidence of an advanced civilization, but without warp drive, we won't have real proof. All we'll have is some observational data showing that, for instance, the light from their host star dims in a really weird way that's unlike anything we've seen before in our observations, or that there's some object sitting in their L1 spot, etc. We can hypothesize that this data indicates artificial structures, because what natural phenomenon could possibly cause such things? But that's not proof; there really could be some natural thing causing those readings. So the ETs don't really have to establish contact until we have warp drive and the actual ability to go see these artificial structures up-close. They can just leave us to sit around our planet wondering what these observations mean, and slowly come to grips with the idea that there may very well be some intelligent ETs out there with starshades, and argue over it for a few centuries as we'd surely do. They have no obligation to come visit us and clear up the matter. And considering how backwards, irrational, and violent a species we are, there's no good argument I see for the ETs to rush first contact with us, and every reason to delay it as long as possible.

lordnacho 9y ago
We'll be able to see the spectra from distant planets soon. That will amount to "seeing" advanced civs. Going to them with warp drive without landing and talking to them would be equivalent. What would you be able to do? Basically sense EM radiation from there with better resolution, but it's essentially the same thing, "seeing".
- gorkonsine 9y ago
  You'll have to explain how seeing spectra from distant planets conclusively proves intelligent life. I don't see how it does. Spectra will tell you that a planet has molecular oxygen, for instance, carbon dioxide, etc., which would indicate an atmosphere like ours, which would indicate life similar to ours (doing photosynthesis), but you'd get that on a world occupied solely by plants, or with only non-intelligent life. Anyone looking at Earth before about 2M years ago (or anyone looking at it now, but more than 2M ly away) will see exactly this: a life-bearing planet with no life intelligent enough to build a civilization. Finally, even if we could conclusively detect a civilization on a distant planet, that still doesn't explain why they have any obligation to contact us. They can easily just ignore us, and I for one can see why they would. The only time they'd really need to strongly consider establishing contact is when we have sufficient capability to visit them, and that's never going to happen the way we're going. It'd probably by prudent on their part to spy on us though, since we're a potential threat.

lordnacho 9y ago

We'll be able to see the spectra from distant planets soon. That will amount to "seeing" advanced civs. Going to them with warp drive without landing and talking to them would be equivalent. What would you be able to do? Basically sense EM radiation from there with better resolution, but it's essentially the same thing, "seeing".

gorkonsine 9y ago
You'll have to explain how seeing spectra from distant planets conclusively proves intelligent life. I don't see how it does. Spectra will tell you that a planet has molecular oxygen, for instance, carbon dioxide, etc., which would indicate an atmosphere like ours, which would indicate life similar to ours (doing photosynthesis), but you'd get that on a world occupied solely by plants, or with only non-intelligent life. Anyone looking at Earth before about 2M years ago (or anyone looking at it now, but more than 2M ly away) will see exactly this: a life-bearing planet with no life intelligent enough to build a civilization. Finally, even if we could conclusively detect a civilization on a distant planet, that still doesn't explain why they have any obligation to contact us. They can easily just ignore us, and I for one can see why they would. The only time they'd really need to strongly consider establishing contact is when we have sufficient capability to visit them, and that's never going to happen the way we're going. It'd probably by prudent on their part to spy on us though, since we're a potential threat.