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While the author makes a lot of interesting points that even I hadn't considered before as an enthusiastic reader of EV news, there are a few glaring holes I ne

While the author makes a lot of interesting points that even I hadn't considered before as an enthusiastic reader of EV news, there are a few glaring holes I need to point out: - Pretty much every point the author makes about the rapid takeover of EVs, from being cheaper to hail one instead of owning a gasoline powered car, to the ones relating to owning cars at all, could (and should) be prefixed by "In a city..." because speaking as someone who lives far from an urban sprawl, a lot of this stuff just would not work. Sure EV's work ok out here, though the self driving tech might need more help than most often, but who is buying all of these self driving EV cabs and operating them, and why? The volume just isn't here, you'd get tons of passengers clamoring for a ride between 7am and 9am, then again at 3pm to 5pm, and then it would be near dead the rest of the time. - There are no EV technologies (to my knowledge) ready to replace anything beyond a city runabout vehicle. The act of, for example, plowing snow would be insanely taxing on an EV truck (running an electric motor under strain is the best way to wear down the battery), and sure, the mechanical element is definitely true but you'd need some sort of fast-charge system to make it viable, otherwise your trucks are spending hours charging for every hour plowing. And then that's a fairly easy one, electric combines, construction equipment, cranes, tow trucks, I haven't heard of any of these and I look for this sort of thing. - Societal inertia is going to be a big factor here, around here we have people driving vehicles from the 70's, not as collector's items or anything like that but as their daily driver. Come on out here and propose to our average Joe the idea of buying a Tesla Model 3 for $37,000, a guy who barely makes $30,000 a year, who buys and drives the cheapest thing on the lot until the wheels fall off and goes and gets something else. I could go on but it's bed time. Maybe ICE vehicles will be dearth from cities within 10 years, maybe. But even then I kind of doubt it.

pmoriarty 9y ago
Most of the US population (and that of most other countries around the world) is concentrated in cities. So even if EV's were limited to just city driving, that would suit most people for most of the driving they do. Electric trains exist, and they haul around way more mass than a simple truck. As for battery charging times, why couldn't users just swap out empty batteries for fully-charged ones, and charge the empty ones while they're offline?
mehwoot 9y ago
Come on out here and propose to our average Joe the idea of buying a Tesla Model 3 for $37,000 But that's not what the article is suggesting. It is saying with electric self driving cars, you won't own your own car, it will be cheaper to simply use one exactly when you need it.
- rsj_hn 9y ago
  It's the non-existence of affordable electric self-driving cars that's the problem. Not everyone can indulge in this type of irreality. Some people live in the suburbs and have to get to work tomorrow with cars that exist rather than cars that are "nearly" here, or "just around the corner", or "inevitable" or whatnot. To misquote a famous Rabbi, if you have a sapling in your hand and someone rushes to tell you that the inexpensive fully self-driving electric car has arrived, first plant the sapling and then go and see about the car.
nopinsight 9y ago
The US and most developed countries are highly urbanized. The US is 82% urban, most of Europe about 80%, China was 57% in 2016 and increasing every year. [1] Together, these countries account for over half of the world's oil demand and the urban parts account for most of it. [2] The impact on urban areas alone would be sufficient to disrupt the whole industry. The disruption will unlikely to be as drastic as what happened to Kodak and Nokia since most people cannot afford to change cars as quickly and changing modes of transportation especially conditioned on self-driving vehicles reaching broad acceptance might take some time. Your point regarding rural areas may be applicable to several developing countries. The author's key points remain valid, although the timeline looks too optimistic. [1] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?year_high_desc=true http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?year_h... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consu...
- cfmcdonald 9y ago
  This data lumps together suburban and true dense urban as 'urban'. Probably over 50% of the U.S. population is suburban, and that population is not going to be served economically by on-demand ride services.[1] [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-suburban-are-big-american-cities/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-suburban-are-big-am...
silvestrov 9y ago
> our average Joe the idea of buying a Tesla Model 3 The idea is that Joe will rent the Tesla (i.e. use a taxi), not buy the Tesla because it will be cheaper to use a taxi than to own the car himself (in the city). So Joe doesn't care about how much the Tesla cost just like nobody cares about how much a taxi car cost. This effect is visible in Denmark: most taxis are expensive Mercedes-Benz E-Class which nobody owns privately because of the price. They are used for taxis as they are very reliable for driving a huge distance everyday. > Societal inertia is going to be a big factor It can change very fast when people can save money.
- jabl 9y ago
  > This effect is visible in Denmark: most taxis are expensive Mercedes-Benz E-Class which nobody owns privately because of the price. They are used for taxis as they are very reliable for driving a huge distance everyday. Same here, but I don't they are that much more reliable compared to other cars. I think it has more to do with labor and fuel being a much bigger part of the total cost vs. the upfront purchase price. So it doesn't cost much extra for taxi companies to market themselves by providing "luxurious" transportation.
Aloha 9y ago
I think you're spot on. I think the hype about pure electric and self driving are largely just that, hype. I do think electric will rule the day, I just don't think we're going to see it by 2030 - maybe by 2050 - but thats still a big maybe - we need one more generation of battery technology to make it to the mass market.
- paganel 9y ago
  > I think the hype about pure electric and self driving are largely just that, hype I also fear misinvestments from the car companies that could cause major unforeseen health and ecological risks 20 to 30 years from now. The same has happened with diesel here in Europe, which 20 to 30 years ago was seen as superior to gasoline for the average daily commuter and which now, when more than 50% of the cars in in major European countries run on diesel, has proven itself really bad for the health of people living in big cities.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
averagewall 9y ago
Yes, charging time is something the author overlooked. A taxi company using its cars all day and night still needs to put them out of service to charge. Maybe battery swapping will become a thing again. There are rental electric cars in China which have swappable batteries. Basically the prediction of the story already existing. But they're obviously not nearly as popular as private cars. Regarding trucks and cranes. What reason is there for them not to be electric? A snow plow wouldn't overload the motor - it would be designed with a suitable motor and gear reduction just like every other vehicle. For now, there probably aren't subsidies or "look at me saving the planet!" factors to make them economical. There have been lead acid electric forklifts since forever and they charge them overnight.

pmoriarty 9y ago

Most of the US population (and that of most other countries around the world) is concentrated in cities. So even if EV's were limited to just city driving, that would suit most people for most of the driving they do. Electric trains exist, and they haul around way more mass than a simple truck. As for battery charging times, why couldn't users just swap out empty batteries for fully-charged ones, and charge the empty ones while they're offline?

mehwoot 9y ago

Come on out here and propose to our average Joe the idea of buying a Tesla Model 3 for $37,000 But that's not what the article is suggesting. It is saying with electric self driving cars, you won't own your own car, it will be cheaper to simply use one exactly when you need it.

rsj_hn 9y ago
It's the non-existence of affordable electric self-driving cars that's the problem. Not everyone can indulge in this type of irreality. Some people live in the suburbs and have to get to work tomorrow with cars that exist rather than cars that are "nearly" here, or "just around the corner", or "inevitable" or whatnot. To misquote a famous Rabbi, if you have a sapling in your hand and someone rushes to tell you that the inexpensive fully self-driving electric car has arrived, first plant the sapling and then go and see about the car.

nopinsight 9y ago

The US and most developed countries are highly urbanized. The US is 82% urban, most of Europe about 80%, China was 57% in 2016 and increasing every year. [1] Together, these countries account for over half of the world's oil demand and the urban parts account for most of it. [2] The impact on urban areas alone would be sufficient to disrupt the whole industry. The disruption will unlikely to be as drastic as what happened to Kodak and Nokia since most people cannot afford to change cars as quickly and changing modes of transportation especially conditioned on self-driving vehicles reaching broad acceptance might take some time. Your point regarding rural areas may be applicable to several developing countries. The author's key points remain valid, although the timeline looks too optimistic. [1] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?year_high_desc=true http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?year_h... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consu...

cfmcdonald 9y ago
This data lumps together suburban and true dense urban as 'urban'. Probably over 50% of the U.S. population is suburban, and that population is not going to be served economically by on-demand ride services.[1] [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-suburban-are-big-american-cities/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-suburban-are-big-am...

silvestrov 9y ago

> our average Joe the idea of buying a Tesla Model 3 The idea is that Joe will rent the Tesla (i.e. use a taxi), not buy the Tesla because it will be cheaper to use a taxi than to own the car himself (in the city). So Joe doesn't care about how much the Tesla cost just like nobody cares about how much a taxi car cost. This effect is visible in Denmark: most taxis are expensive Mercedes-Benz E-Class which nobody owns privately because of the price. They are used for taxis as they are very reliable for driving a huge distance everyday. > Societal inertia is going to be a big factor It can change very fast when people can save money.

jabl 9y ago
> This effect is visible in Denmark: most taxis are expensive Mercedes-Benz E-Class which nobody owns privately because of the price. They are used for taxis as they are very reliable for driving a huge distance everyday. Same here, but I don't they are that much more reliable compared to other cars. I think it has more to do with labor and fuel being a much bigger part of the total cost vs. the upfront purchase price. So it doesn't cost much extra for taxi companies to market themselves by providing "luxurious" transportation.

Aloha 9y ago

I think you're spot on. I think the hype about pure electric and self driving are largely just that, hype. I do think electric will rule the day, I just don't think we're going to see it by 2030 - maybe by 2050 - but thats still a big maybe - we need one more generation of battery technology to make it to the mass market.

paganel 9y ago
> I think the hype about pure electric and self driving are largely just that, hype I also fear misinvestments from the car companies that could cause major unforeseen health and ecological risks 20 to 30 years from now. The same has happened with diesel here in Europe, which 20 to 30 years ago was seen as superior to gasoline for the average daily commuter and which now, when more than 50% of the cars in in major European countries run on diesel, has proven itself really bad for the health of people living in big cities.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

averagewall 9y ago

Yes, charging time is something the author overlooked. A taxi company using its cars all day and night still needs to put them out of service to charge. Maybe battery swapping will become a thing again. There are rental electric cars in China which have swappable batteries. Basically the prediction of the story already existing. But they're obviously not nearly as popular as private cars. Regarding trucks and cranes. What reason is there for them not to be electric? A snow plow wouldn't overload the motor - it would be designed with a suitable motor and gear reduction just like every other vehicle. For now, there probably aren't subsidies or "look at me saving the planet!" factors to make them economical. There have been lead acid electric forklifts since forever and they charge them overnight.