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The dev kits were dev kits. For developers. Just because you could go onto a web site and buy them doesn't mean that VR was released. I think we can conclude i

The dev kits were dev kits. For developers. Just because you could go onto a web site and buy them doesn't mean that VR was released. I think we can conclude it's not going to catch on once they have delivered on the promise of VR and then the market goes meh. The Rift and Vive (the only VR worth anything) are both very far towards the early adopter side of the spectrum and I think everything follows from that. They are expensive, difficult to set up and keep working, and have expensive dependencies. Prototype hardware already exists that shows all those problems are tractable. So to me the question is only does VR run out of money before it develops a viable product. Sure there is some small question of what the market will think of what VR has to offer, but when you offer it to people for "free" the reaction is uniformly positive. The only barrier is cost and convenience and whether those lines intersect with the cost to produce VR in time (or ever). I think those lines will intersect as you can do it on hardware that is O(mobile phone) in cost. Just not actual mobile phones. Those are trash for VR. I think it's really unlikely that the in four years the market will be so small as to support zero VR. I think it's comparable to the first iPhone which was really not that great. I know I will use and keep buying VR displays forever even if they freeze at the current level of technology. Even when someone is offering me 16k OLED 2d displays with 240hz refresh rates. There is no substitute for a fully tracked POV and proper depth perception.

toddmorey 9y ago
The first iPhone was expensive and limited, but it inarguably caught fire with a group way bigger than early adopters. No comparison. They sold 1 million in 74 days.
- EthanHeilman 9y ago
  The iPhone was the point at which the mobile computer finally got traction after 30+ years of prototypes and product sold to early adopters (palm pilot, windows ce, danger hiptop, etc...). Furthermore the iPhone was significantly cheaper than a VR setup is today and the iPhone was heavily subsidized.
petra 9y ago
What type of hardware enables VR at a similar cost to a phone?
- arielweisberg 9y ago
  A flagship phone costs 6-800$. The Rift was selling at Best Buy with a 150$ gift card for 600$. And that is with a bunch of extra hardware (two cameras, tracked controllers, xbox controller, remote) and packaging that probably won't be in gen 2 VR. So your expectation of what existing VR hardware costs is probably a little off. Let's say that you have a BOM of 500$ to make a Rift. That's 100-300$ to spend on a battery, mobile GPU/CPU and memory, cameras, and associated cooling and packaging. It's within the realm of reason at the 800$ price point. I think the reality is that BOM will shift around quite a bit. VR might stall at the current level of fidelity for a while (which is fine IMO), but ease of use and price can be improved quite a bit. Even since launch the cost of the full Rift setup has decreased quite a bit. 1/2 to 1/3rd although I would have to really think harder about what a realistic number is.

toddmorey 9y ago

The first iPhone was expensive and limited, but it inarguably caught fire with a group way bigger than early adopters. No comparison. They sold 1 million in 74 days.

EthanHeilman 9y ago
The iPhone was the point at which the mobile computer finally got traction after 30+ years of prototypes and product sold to early adopters (palm pilot, windows ce, danger hiptop, etc...). Furthermore the iPhone was significantly cheaper than a VR setup is today and the iPhone was heavily subsidized.

petra 9y ago

What type of hardware enables VR at a similar cost to a phone?

arielweisberg 9y ago
A flagship phone costs 6-800$. The Rift was selling at Best Buy with a 150$ gift card for 600$. And that is with a bunch of extra hardware (two cameras, tracked controllers, xbox controller, remote) and packaging that probably won't be in gen 2 VR. So your expectation of what existing VR hardware costs is probably a little off. Let's say that you have a BOM of 500$ to make a Rift. That's 100-300$ to spend on a battery, mobile GPU/CPU and memory, cameras, and associated cooling and packaging. It's within the realm of reason at the 800$ price point. I think the reality is that BOM will shift around quite a bit. VR might stall at the current level of fidelity for a while (which is fine IMO), but ease of use and price can be improved quite a bit. Even since launch the cost of the full Rift setup has decreased quite a bit. 1/2 to 1/3rd although I would have to really think harder about what a realistic number is.