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10x? Right now a Tesla has 250 miles of range, and an ICE car has 400 miles. You might want more because of the faster refill time of gas, but recharge time is

10x? Right now a Tesla has 250 miles of range, and an ICE car has 400 miles. You might want more because of the faster refill time of gas, but recharge time is coming down for electric. The Model 3 coming off the lines in the next few days is the same price as a Honda Civic. So... 2x in range and 1.0 in price sound good? That's probably 3-4 years out at the current rate of improvement in battery technology.

cptskippy 9y ago
The Model 3 starts at $35K without incentives and they expect the average sticker price to be $42K. Honda Civics start at $18K. The Model 3 has an estimated 215 mile range where as a 2017 Civic is estimated a 521 miles. The annual improvement in capacity for Lithium batteries is 8%. So in 4 years you can expect battery packs of equivalent size to go for 293 miles. So 1.95x the price for .4x the range today and if all things except battery price remain the same, then 1.95x the price for .56x the range. The biggest problems for electric car is fast charger availability and the fact that DC Fast charging degrades the batteries over time. Deploying DC Fast chargers to homes isn't feasible so charging a 200+ mile battery from 10% to full would take hours using a Level 2 charger.
- greglindahl 9y ago
  Tesla disagrees with you about DC fast charging's effect on battery life, and you don't need a DC fast charger at your house.
  - cptskippy 9y ago
    You don't need a DC faster charger however Level 2 charging will take hours to complete. A Leaf takes 4-8 hours at LEAST, a Tesla will be twice that at least.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      And yet everyone who has a home charger has an L2 charger. So, apparently, you don't understand how people who currently own electric cars & can charge at home do charging. The way they do it: * Charge overnight, start every day full * Supercharge on long trips * If you have a Leaf, the definition of "long trip" is a bit short Done. No DC fast charger needed at home.
      - cptskippy 9y ago
        I own a 2015 Leaf and I don't have an L2 Charger. I think what you don't understand is that it isn't feasible for everyone to install a L2 Charger in their home. 240v connectors in garages might be an option for new construction but aren't common in older construction. The installation cost isn't a fixed number and there are several factors that can raise that cost into the thousands of dollars. That's even assuming you own a home, if you rent then it's probably not an option. If you live in an apartment or condo then it's even less a possibility. If owning an electric car requires access to an L2 Charger to be feasible then there will have to be serious infrastructure changes before most ICE car owners will consider them practical. Charging stations will have to be readily available everywhere, not just in your home garage assuming that's even an option. Sure your office parking garage might have two or four charging stations today that were easily installed but what will it take to install 20, 40, or 100? Can our grid even support that scale? Most people can't afford new cars let alone 200+ mile EVs and ~100 mile EV has a number of caveats that will necessitate lifestyle and behavior changes for a lot of people. My Leaf typically reports 93-96 miles range at 100% charge and I commute ~25 miles one way. That should leave me with around 40 miles of overhead and yet that's rarely the case. Driving in excess of 55 miles an hour for prolonged periods of time quickly depletes the battery as does rapid acceleration. If I'm not paying attention to my driving then I can easily arrive at work with a battery at 40% capacity. EVs are currently practical for a small subset of the population however there will need to be significant changes in the electrical grid, charging infrastructure, EV range, and EV cost before mass adoption is even possible.
        greglindahl 9y ago
        You just completely changed the subject. I've had several friends who've had to go back and forth a few times with their electrician to get a L2 charger installed at their house. I live in an apartment, and after 3 years of lobbying, my complex installed a charger. New construction in my area is required to install chargers. City parking garages where I live have chargers, and there are even a few chargers for street parking. I say all of this not to claim that charger access is not an issue -- it is -- but to point out that solutions exist. Also, I hope this is a good illustration of why you should not tell other people on HN that they don't understand something.
  - cptskippy 9y ago
    Do you have a link to an official statement on DC Superchargers from Tesla? The best I could find was them stating that use of Superchargers will not affect the pack warranty. I did however find this article (https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-speed-number-charges/ https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-sp...). This seems to imply that the packs are damaged by repeated Supercharger use and will automatically throttle themselves to lessen the damage being done. Tesla seems to be very coy and dances around the subject because they don't want to attach any stigma to fast charging while EVs are still in their infancy as it might negatively impact their adoption rates.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      Every time you charge a battery it helps to throttle charging if the temperature is out of range. Tesla has always done this; there's an extra fan that's Extremely Loud and I only hear it when I'm supercharging on a hot day. In the article you linked, the customer appears to have noticed a slight decrease in the peak charging rate. It doesn't sound significant to me. There are certainly other Teslas out there which are supercharged 100% of the time, Tesloop is one example.
      - cptskippy 9y ago
        > Every time you charge a battery it helps to throttle charging if the temperature is out of range. Tesla has always done this; there's an extra fan that's Extremely Loud and I only hear it when I'm supercharging on a hot day. That's one of the three reasons Tesla gives for throttling the charge rate. > In the article you linked, the customer appears to have noticed a slight decrease in the peak charging rate. From 120kW down to 90kW peak charging rate is only slight? I realize it's peak and not average but a 25% reduction is only considered slight? Also you said that Tesla disagrees with me about the affect of DC fast charging on battery life. The statements from Tesla seem to agree with me and they have implemented technologies to mitigate those effects in the form of peak rate throttling over time. You seem to misinterpret Tesla saying it's fine to DC Fast Charge to mean that it has no detrimental affects when they really mean that they have protocols in place to ensure the pack will not degrade to the point that a warranty replacement is necessary.
anovikov 9y ago
It won't be on the same price as Civic, but it is also not on the same class as Civic. Closer to BMW 3-series. Entry level luxury. 5.6s to 60mph is definitely not in the family car category.
- Pulcinella 9y ago
  The interior of the Model 3 (and even the Model S) aren't anywhere near the interior of a luxury car. They are closer to the interior of upper trim Mazda or Honda. Also the V6 Accord is a family car and can do 0-60 in 5.6s. Edit: I will say 5.6s is pretty darn quick. I would consider anything quicker than ~7s to be more a fun thing to have than a practical, neccessary acceleration.
  - anovikov 9y ago
    I think your main experience is with European vehicles made for Europe. These simply have better interiors. Model S has a luxury interior in the U.S. sense. I driven a U.S. Porsche Cayenne - definitely a luxury car - and while it's cool it's interior plainly sucks, i was surprised - that is what a medium-cheap family car in Europe have.
Sohcahtoa82 9y ago
You're not doing any favors to Tesla when you pull numbers out of your ass like that. "Right now a Tesla has 250 miles of range" If you buy that model, sure. But the base Model 3 only has a range of 215 miles, and that's assuming you're not using the heater or A/C. "The Model 3 coming off the lines in the next few days is the same price as a Honda Civic." Where the hell are you getting your numbers? The Civic starts at a little over $18k, whereas the Model 3 starts at $35k. Even the Civic Type-R is only $32k, but that's a different beast than a regular Civic.
- azernik 9y ago
  Got the number from Google... which apparently defaulted to the type-R -_-

cptskippy 9y ago

The Model 3 starts at $35K without incentives and they expect the average sticker price to be $42K. Honda Civics start at $18K. The Model 3 has an estimated 215 mile range where as a 2017 Civic is estimated a 521 miles. The annual improvement in capacity for Lithium batteries is 8%. So in 4 years you can expect battery packs of equivalent size to go for 293 miles. So 1.95x the price for .4x the range today and if all things except battery price remain the same, then 1.95x the price for .56x the range. The biggest problems for electric car is fast charger availability and the fact that DC Fast charging degrades the batteries over time. Deploying DC Fast chargers to homes isn't feasible so charging a 200+ mile battery from 10% to full would take hours using a Level 2 charger.

greglindahl 9y ago
Tesla disagrees with you about DC fast charging's effect on battery life, and you don't need a DC fast charger at your house.
- cptskippy 9y ago
  You don't need a DC faster charger however Level 2 charging will take hours to complete. A Leaf takes 4-8 hours at LEAST, a Tesla will be twice that at least.
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    And yet everyone who has a home charger has an L2 charger. So, apparently, you don't understand how people who currently own electric cars & can charge at home do charging. The way they do it: * Charge overnight, start every day full * Supercharge on long trips * If you have a Leaf, the definition of "long trip" is a bit short Done. No DC fast charger needed at home.
    - cptskippy 9y ago
      I own a 2015 Leaf and I don't have an L2 Charger. I think what you don't understand is that it isn't feasible for everyone to install a L2 Charger in their home. 240v connectors in garages might be an option for new construction but aren't common in older construction. The installation cost isn't a fixed number and there are several factors that can raise that cost into the thousands of dollars. That's even assuming you own a home, if you rent then it's probably not an option. If you live in an apartment or condo then it's even less a possibility. If owning an electric car requires access to an L2 Charger to be feasible then there will have to be serious infrastructure changes before most ICE car owners will consider them practical. Charging stations will have to be readily available everywhere, not just in your home garage assuming that's even an option. Sure your office parking garage might have two or four charging stations today that were easily installed but what will it take to install 20, 40, or 100? Can our grid even support that scale? Most people can't afford new cars let alone 200+ mile EVs and ~100 mile EV has a number of caveats that will necessitate lifestyle and behavior changes for a lot of people. My Leaf typically reports 93-96 miles range at 100% charge and I commute ~25 miles one way. That should leave me with around 40 miles of overhead and yet that's rarely the case. Driving in excess of 55 miles an hour for prolonged periods of time quickly depletes the battery as does rapid acceleration. If I'm not paying attention to my driving then I can easily arrive at work with a battery at 40% capacity. EVs are currently practical for a small subset of the population however there will need to be significant changes in the electrical grid, charging infrastructure, EV range, and EV cost before mass adoption is even possible.
      - greglindahl 9y ago
        You just completely changed the subject. I've had several friends who've had to go back and forth a few times with their electrician to get a L2 charger installed at their house. I live in an apartment, and after 3 years of lobbying, my complex installed a charger. New construction in my area is required to install chargers. City parking garages where I live have chargers, and there are even a few chargers for street parking. I say all of this not to claim that charger access is not an issue -- it is -- but to point out that solutions exist. Also, I hope this is a good illustration of why you should not tell other people on HN that they don't understand something.
- cptskippy 9y ago
  Do you have a link to an official statement on DC Superchargers from Tesla? The best I could find was them stating that use of Superchargers will not affect the pack warranty. I did however find this article (https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-speed-number-charges/ https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-sp...). This seems to imply that the packs are damaged by repeated Supercharger use and will automatically throttle themselves to lessen the damage being done. Tesla seems to be very coy and dances around the subject because they don't want to attach any stigma to fast charging while EVs are still in their infancy as it might negatively impact their adoption rates.
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    Every time you charge a battery it helps to throttle charging if the temperature is out of range. Tesla has always done this; there's an extra fan that's Extremely Loud and I only hear it when I'm supercharging on a hot day. In the article you linked, the customer appears to have noticed a slight decrease in the peak charging rate. It doesn't sound significant to me. There are certainly other Teslas out there which are supercharged 100% of the time, Tesloop is one example.
    - cptskippy 9y ago
      > Every time you charge a battery it helps to throttle charging if the temperature is out of range. Tesla has always done this; there's an extra fan that's Extremely Loud and I only hear it when I'm supercharging on a hot day. That's one of the three reasons Tesla gives for throttling the charge rate. > In the article you linked, the customer appears to have noticed a slight decrease in the peak charging rate. From 120kW down to 90kW peak charging rate is only slight? I realize it's peak and not average but a 25% reduction is only considered slight? Also you said that Tesla disagrees with me about the affect of DC fast charging on battery life. The statements from Tesla seem to agree with me and they have implemented technologies to mitigate those effects in the form of peak rate throttling over time. You seem to misinterpret Tesla saying it's fine to DC Fast Charge to mean that it has no detrimental affects when they really mean that they have protocols in place to ensure the pack will not degrade to the point that a warranty replacement is necessary.

anovikov 9y ago

It won't be on the same price as Civic, but it is also not on the same class as Civic. Closer to BMW 3-series. Entry level luxury. 5.6s to 60mph is definitely not in the family car category.

Pulcinella 9y ago
The interior of the Model 3 (and even the Model S) aren't anywhere near the interior of a luxury car. They are closer to the interior of upper trim Mazda or Honda. Also the V6 Accord is a family car and can do 0-60 in 5.6s. Edit: I will say 5.6s is pretty darn quick. I would consider anything quicker than ~7s to be more a fun thing to have than a practical, neccessary acceleration.
- anovikov 9y ago
  I think your main experience is with European vehicles made for Europe. These simply have better interiors. Model S has a luxury interior in the U.S. sense. I driven a U.S. Porsche Cayenne - definitely a luxury car - and while it's cool it's interior plainly sucks, i was surprised - that is what a medium-cheap family car in Europe have.

Sohcahtoa82 9y ago

You're not doing any favors to Tesla when you pull numbers out of your ass like that. "Right now a Tesla has 250 miles of range" If you buy that model, sure. But the base Model 3 only has a range of 215 miles, and that's assuming you're not using the heater or A/C. "The Model 3 coming off the lines in the next few days is the same price as a Honda Civic." Where the hell are you getting your numbers? The Civic starts at a little over $18k, whereas the Model 3 starts at $35k. Even the Civic Type-R is only $32k, but that's a different beast than a regular Civic.

azernik 9y ago
Got the number from Google... which apparently defaulted to the type-R -_-