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> Volvo doesn't plan to build any of them starting 2020 by the way "Around 2024" is what they said yesterday. "Volvo’s transition will be gradual. It plans to

> Volvo doesn't plan to build any of them starting 2020 by the way "Around 2024" is what they said yesterday. "Volvo’s transition will be gradual. It plans to still produce existing models with conventional engines after 2019, but it will no longer introduce new models with the older technology. Depending on demand, Volvo will completely phase out cars powered solely by gasoline or diesel by around 2024." https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-environment/volvo-hybrid-electric-car.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-environme...

anovikov 9y ago
Thanks for clarification. That doesn't change whole picture though. By 2040, there won't be gas cars on sale in developed countries (and they will be a minority even in the developing ones).
- vbezhenar 9y ago
  Unless there will be a breakthrough in batteries with 10x capacity and 0.1 price, I won't change my car to electric, neither will many of people I know. May be as a second car for short city trips. Or oil price will skyrocket, but that's unlikely too.
  - derekp7 9y ago
    What about fast charging stations becoming more widespread? For example: legislation that requires all apartments to have charging outlets, or charging available on street parking. The way I see it -- plugin hybrids with a minimal 50 mile electric range will start to become the norm, then with fewer people buying gas, many gas stations go out of business. Electric charging pops up at work and at the big box stores. Possibly metered, or subsidised by purchases. Then plugin hybrids become electric only once the gas stations disappear.
    - anovikov 9y ago
      Plugin hybrid will be too costly soon, because it is unavoidably more costly than an ICE car (because it is an ICE car plus a lot more stuff) and will become more expensive than a pure BEV soon too as price of larger battery will no longer be more as price of gas engine and generator. That moment is already very close, most likely, it is already too late to build a mass market plug-in hybrid.
      - derekp7 9y ago
        I've thought of a plugin hybrid as the same as a regular hybrid, but with a bigger battery. And a regular hybrid does have a somewhat simpler transmission (simple in the mechanical sense -- only one planetary gear system, plus two motor/generators, but quite a bit of software control is needed). Take a look at one of the videos of a Ford or Toyota ECVT transmission teardown. These things are a beautiful in the mechanical sense.
  - azernik 9y ago
    10x? Right now a Tesla has 250 miles of range, and an ICE car has 400 miles. You might want more because of the faster refill time of gas, but recharge time is coming down for electric. The Model 3 coming off the lines in the next few days is the same price as a Honda Civic. So... 2x in range and 1.0 in price sound good? That's probably 3-4 years out at the current rate of improvement in battery technology.
    - cptskippy 9y ago
      The Model 3 starts at $35K without incentives and they expect the average sticker price to be $42K. Honda Civics start at $18K. The Model 3 has an estimated 215 mile range where as a 2017 Civic is estimated a 521 miles. The annual improvement in capacity for Lithium batteries is 8%. So in 4 years you can expect battery packs of equivalent size to go for 293 miles. So 1.95x the price for .4x the range today and if all things except battery price remain the same, then 1.95x the price for .56x the range. The biggest problems for electric car is fast charger availability and the fact that DC Fast charging degrades the batteries over time. Deploying DC Fast chargers to homes isn't feasible so charging a 200+ mile battery from 10% to full would take hours using a Level 2 charger.
      - greglindahl 9y ago
        Tesla disagrees with you about DC fast charging's effect on battery life, and you don't need a DC fast charger at your house.
        cptskippy 9y ago
        You don't need a DC faster charger however Level 2 charging will take hours to complete. A Leaf takes 4-8 hours at LEAST, a Tesla will be twice that at least.
        greglindahl 9y ago
        And yet everyone who has a home charger has an L2 charger. So, apparently, you don't understand how people who currently own electric cars & can charge at home do charging. The way they do it: * Charge overnight, start every day full * Supercharge on long trips * If you have a Leaf, the definition of "long trip" is a bit short Done. No DC fast charger needed at home.
  - monk_e_boy 9y ago
    I don't know many people who have off road parking, charging them is always going to be an issue. I fill my car every 10 days or so and it takes about 5 minutes. How will electric cars match that?
    - nkoren 9y ago
      Inductive charging and battery swap.
      - monk_e_boy 9y ago
        What - dig up the road and put induction loops in it? We haven't even got good broadband internet yet. Battery swap sounds reasonable.
        nkoren 9y ago
        I'm going to assume you're American; apologies if I'm wrong. Americans tend to assume that infrastructure is something that happened in the 20th century, and that nobody has the money, need, or capability for that kind of thing any more. But in fact, the world is spending over $3 trilion per year on upgrading and expanding its infrastructure (and for the most part, is much more efficient at this than America). Incrementally incorporating inductive charging systems into a small fraction of that expenditure will not be a major deal.
  - epistasis 9y ago
    You need a 2500 mile range? That's also a >600kWh battery, and even at 1/10th the price it's a $15,000 element. Lithium ion car batteries will get to 1/2 or 1/3 the price within a decade. By that point, electric cars will always be cheaper (edit: than current ICE TCO) When we're at 1/10th the cost (which may happen!) it seems quite likely that fossil fuels will all be more expensive than storage backed renewable energy. As the demand for fossil fuels shrinks to a tiny fraction of its previous size, prices will also go down, as only the cheapest to extract oil will still be profitable. In this hypothetical future, it may be possible for gas cars to be as cheap as an electric car, but it remains to be seen. In any case, the cost of energy will be lower than it is now.
rsync 9y ago
""Around 2024" is what they said yesterday." As they always say. Please don't give volvo any credit or publicity for issuing the same old "three of four years from now we will have some more bolted-on hybrid models and some electric-clown-car[1] that nobody wants." BMW and Audi and Merc (and now Volvo) can just recycle these press releases every few years - nothing changes but the three-years-off date. [1] BMW i3, Merc B class ...
- putsteadywere 9y ago
  I love my BMW i3. Am I the only one?
Skunkleton 9y ago
From TFA: > Depending on demand, Volvo will completely phase out cars powered solely by gasoline or diesel by around 2024. They aren't killing gas engines, they are just moving to Hybrid drive trains.

anovikov 9y ago

Thanks for clarification. That doesn't change whole picture though. By 2040, there won't be gas cars on sale in developed countries (and they will be a minority even in the developing ones).

vbezhenar 9y ago
Unless there will be a breakthrough in batteries with 10x capacity and 0.1 price, I won't change my car to electric, neither will many of people I know. May be as a second car for short city trips. Or oil price will skyrocket, but that's unlikely too.
- derekp7 9y ago
  What about fast charging stations becoming more widespread? For example: legislation that requires all apartments to have charging outlets, or charging available on street parking. The way I see it -- plugin hybrids with a minimal 50 mile electric range will start to become the norm, then with fewer people buying gas, many gas stations go out of business. Electric charging pops up at work and at the big box stores. Possibly metered, or subsidised by purchases. Then plugin hybrids become electric only once the gas stations disappear.
  - anovikov 9y ago
    Plugin hybrid will be too costly soon, because it is unavoidably more costly than an ICE car (because it is an ICE car plus a lot more stuff) and will become more expensive than a pure BEV soon too as price of larger battery will no longer be more as price of gas engine and generator. That moment is already very close, most likely, it is already too late to build a mass market plug-in hybrid.
    - derekp7 9y ago
      I've thought of a plugin hybrid as the same as a regular hybrid, but with a bigger battery. And a regular hybrid does have a somewhat simpler transmission (simple in the mechanical sense -- only one planetary gear system, plus two motor/generators, but quite a bit of software control is needed). Take a look at one of the videos of a Ford or Toyota ECVT transmission teardown. These things are a beautiful in the mechanical sense.
- azernik 9y ago
  10x? Right now a Tesla has 250 miles of range, and an ICE car has 400 miles. You might want more because of the faster refill time of gas, but recharge time is coming down for electric. The Model 3 coming off the lines in the next few days is the same price as a Honda Civic. So... 2x in range and 1.0 in price sound good? That's probably 3-4 years out at the current rate of improvement in battery technology.
  - cptskippy 9y ago
    The Model 3 starts at $35K without incentives and they expect the average sticker price to be $42K. Honda Civics start at $18K. The Model 3 has an estimated 215 mile range where as a 2017 Civic is estimated a 521 miles. The annual improvement in capacity for Lithium batteries is 8%. So in 4 years you can expect battery packs of equivalent size to go for 293 miles. So 1.95x the price for .4x the range today and if all things except battery price remain the same, then 1.95x the price for .56x the range. The biggest problems for electric car is fast charger availability and the fact that DC Fast charging degrades the batteries over time. Deploying DC Fast chargers to homes isn't feasible so charging a 200+ mile battery from 10% to full would take hours using a Level 2 charger.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      Tesla disagrees with you about DC fast charging's effect on battery life, and you don't need a DC fast charger at your house.
      - cptskippy 9y ago
        You don't need a DC faster charger however Level 2 charging will take hours to complete. A Leaf takes 4-8 hours at LEAST, a Tesla will be twice that at least.
        greglindahl 9y ago
        And yet everyone who has a home charger has an L2 charger. So, apparently, you don't understand how people who currently own electric cars & can charge at home do charging. The way they do it: * Charge overnight, start every day full * Supercharge on long trips * If you have a Leaf, the definition of "long trip" is a bit short Done. No DC fast charger needed at home.
- monk_e_boy 9y ago
  I don't know many people who have off road parking, charging them is always going to be an issue. I fill my car every 10 days or so and it takes about 5 minutes. How will electric cars match that?
  - nkoren 9y ago
    Inductive charging and battery swap.
    - monk_e_boy 9y ago
      What - dig up the road and put induction loops in it? We haven't even got good broadband internet yet. Battery swap sounds reasonable.
      - nkoren 9y ago
        I'm going to assume you're American; apologies if I'm wrong. Americans tend to assume that infrastructure is something that happened in the 20th century, and that nobody has the money, need, or capability for that kind of thing any more. But in fact, the world is spending over $3 trilion per year on upgrading and expanding its infrastructure (and for the most part, is much more efficient at this than America). Incrementally incorporating inductive charging systems into a small fraction of that expenditure will not be a major deal.
- epistasis 9y ago
  You need a 2500 mile range? That's also a >600kWh battery, and even at 1/10th the price it's a $15,000 element. Lithium ion car batteries will get to 1/2 or 1/3 the price within a decade. By that point, electric cars will always be cheaper (edit: than current ICE TCO) When we're at 1/10th the cost (which may happen!) it seems quite likely that fossil fuels will all be more expensive than storage backed renewable energy. As the demand for fossil fuels shrinks to a tiny fraction of its previous size, prices will also go down, as only the cheapest to extract oil will still be profitable. In this hypothetical future, it may be possible for gas cars to be as cheap as an electric car, but it remains to be seen. In any case, the cost of energy will be lower than it is now.

rsync 9y ago

""Around 2024" is what they said yesterday." As they always say. Please don't give volvo any credit or publicity for issuing the same old "three of four years from now we will have some more bolted-on hybrid models and some electric-clown-car[1] that nobody wants." BMW and Audi and Merc (and now Volvo) can just recycle these press releases every few years - nothing changes but the three-years-off date. [1] BMW i3, Merc B class ...

putsteadywere 9y ago
I love my BMW i3. Am I the only one?

Skunkleton 9y ago

From TFA: > Depending on demand, Volvo will completely phase out cars powered solely by gasoline or diesel by around 2024. They aren't killing gas engines, they are just moving to Hybrid drive trains.