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The scenarios you described sound like straight from "The Innovators Dilemma". Except the companies thinking this way were disrupted out of business.
by scient 9y ago
The scenarios you described sound like straight from "The Innovators Dilemma". Except the companies thinking this way were disrupted out of business.
- Aloha 9y agoWhat is truly disrupting about Tesla?
- jsight 9y agoThe biggest disruption is the quality of the electric drivetrain. We are quickly finding that a "mediocre" electric drivetrain feels better to the average driver than a very good gasoline drivetrain. That isn't what people intuitively expect, but once that expectation changes, the market is going to see major disruption. Gasoline based powertrains will not be seen as the superior choice by most people 5 years from now.
- Aloha 9y agoI have no doubt that this is a factor is why Tesla is going somewhere - I don't know that this is enough to 'render all that came before obsolete'. I'm hopeful yet though - I think a transition to electric power for cars would be wonderful - there are currently many drawbacks to electric power, mostly relating to batteries yet still to be overcome.
- Aron 9y agoYeah -- and you don't lose half your fuel economy by getting the one that goes 0-60 in 4 seconds.
- kazinator 9y ago> We are quickly finding that a "mediocre" electric drivetrain feels better to the average driver than a very good gasoline drivetrain. At first glance, that seems like more of a reason for low-end electric cars to disrupt Tesla.
- Aloha 9y agoI'd fully expect that challenge to come from one of the established manufacturers. We're still early-days yet on electric car technology - there are still many hurdles to overcome yet to make the technology practical for most drivers - so its really hard to say what the future will hold yet - I'm excited for the potential, but I'd like to think I see the realities of it.
- WalterBright 9y agoYes, but some of us motorheads like that vibration and noise of a gas engine :-)
- beambot 9y agoEveryone keeps talking about the cars... when it's really about the car factory: > Ford has 23 global assembly plants that built 6,651,000 cars and trucks in 2016. [...] Elon Musk can imagine a single Tesla factory producing 5.25 million cars per year per assembly line [...]. > If this becomes the way to go for global car makers then Ford has 22 assembly plants it needs to scrap. I wrote scrap rather than sell because if every one of Ford’s competitors is doing the same thing there won’t be any buyers for those old factories. [1] http://www.cringely.com/2017/06/05/the-robots-are-coming/ http://www.cringely.com/2017/06/05/the-robots-are-coming/
- Aloha 9y agoConsider for a moment the logistics of moving 14,383 cars per day out of a single factory, nevermind all the parts needed to build them. (assuming a 15 foot long car, its (ballpark number) 43 miles of cars parked end to end.. per day). The logistics and storage of both material and finished goods are part of why Ford has 22 factories to produce 6.5 million cars.
- mchristen 9y agoWell one thing Tesla has going for them is that they have way less parts per car when compared against traditional ICE based drive trains.
- mentos 9y agoas well as the cars can drive themselves out of the factory
- dsfyu404ed 9y agoAnd one factory that's not gonna do too well when the Pacific plate decides it's had enough of SV's BS and shakes things up.
- Aloha 9y agoTotal parts, perhaps, total assemblies - not really.