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IMO electric and self-driving car technology is advancing rapidly enough that investment in high-speed rail is going to end up like landline telephones -- it ha

IMO electric and self-driving car technology is advancing rapidly enough that investment in high-speed rail is going to end up like landline telephones -- it had a time when it was useful, but countries that missed the boat will end up doing A-OK without them. Rail is convenient, but it will never ever be as convenient as having a car take you where you want to be, carry your kids, and carry your stuff around. As soon as self-driving technology eliminates the hassles of parking and clean solar-electric tech eliminates the environmental concerns, ridership is going to tank on all the fixed train lines. It might be 10-15 years out, but I would be shocked if any of the investments made today in rail ever pay off.

mc32 9y ago
Here they are not referring to intra-city transport. Self driving people movers make sense within a city. Inter-city transportation is a different problem. I think high-speed rail makes a lot of sense. It's energy efficient and land efficient and probably time efficient as well.
afuchs 9y ago
A self-driving car with 1-2 passengers takes up significantly more space than existing public transportation technologies, such as trains and buses. This isn't a problem outside of densely populated places. However, as the density of a place increases, point-to-point transportation become increasingly ineffective. Replacing public transportation with point-to-point self-driving technology in a place like Manhattan, would require building out a ridiculously massive amount of road capacity.
- zionic 9y ago
  You're thinking like an engineer, where efficieny trumps all. In the real world people who can will spend money not to be packed in like sardines with people of questionable hygiene. Know what happens when the AC is out on your vehicle? You get it fixed. How about when the AC is out for the 3rd time this month on the bus/train? "Oh well, that sucks, guess I'm going into work sweaty today" Mass transit everywhere I've been in the US sucks. It's so bad only the poor us it, because even the middle-middle class finds it disgusting/inconvenient.
  - afuchs 9y ago
    How much more are you willing to pay, in time and money, for your convenience? (e.g. Waiting in traffic, Congestion pricing, and Elon Musk's Boring Company)
  - dba7dba 9y ago
    In Hawaii, the city bus system isn't disgusting. Someone I know told me so. But yeah everywhere else in US, public transportation is disgusting and inconvenient.
Thriptic 9y ago
I disagree. Trains on high speed rail networks can travel between 150 and 200 miles per hour. It's highly unlikely that we will see self-driving cars hitting those speeds routinely for a long time as it requires every other car on the highway to be self-driving as well and for cars to be in constant communication with each other. Both systems should exist and they should compliment each other.
pani00 9y ago
In Europe there is a huge tendency to switch from cars to public transportation. Parking space in the city has become really expensive. New roads are built narrower and narrower in favor of walk-ways and bike lanes and to slow the driving speed down. In Austria there is a decline of about 1% of car owners each year. The US has enough space for gigantic parking lots and wide roads. They don't have the same problems as in Europe. That's a huge difference that you are missing there.
juiyout 9y ago
Own your server is convenient in some ways. What if building HSR is like building an IaaS?

mc32 9y ago

Here they are not referring to intra-city transport. Self driving people movers make sense within a city. Inter-city transportation is a different problem. I think high-speed rail makes a lot of sense. It's energy efficient and land efficient and probably time efficient as well.

afuchs 9y ago

A self-driving car with 1-2 passengers takes up significantly more space than existing public transportation technologies, such as trains and buses. This isn't a problem outside of densely populated places. However, as the density of a place increases, point-to-point transportation become increasingly ineffective. Replacing public transportation with point-to-point self-driving technology in a place like Manhattan, would require building out a ridiculously massive amount of road capacity.

zionic 9y ago
You're thinking like an engineer, where efficieny trumps all. In the real world people who can will spend money not to be packed in like sardines with people of questionable hygiene. Know what happens when the AC is out on your vehicle? You get it fixed. How about when the AC is out for the 3rd time this month on the bus/train? "Oh well, that sucks, guess I'm going into work sweaty today" Mass transit everywhere I've been in the US sucks. It's so bad only the poor us it, because even the middle-middle class finds it disgusting/inconvenient.
- afuchs 9y ago
  How much more are you willing to pay, in time and money, for your convenience? (e.g. Waiting in traffic, Congestion pricing, and Elon Musk's Boring Company)
- dba7dba 9y ago
  In Hawaii, the city bus system isn't disgusting. Someone I know told me so. But yeah everywhere else in US, public transportation is disgusting and inconvenient.

Thriptic 9y ago

I disagree. Trains on high speed rail networks can travel between 150 and 200 miles per hour. It's highly unlikely that we will see self-driving cars hitting those speeds routinely for a long time as it requires every other car on the highway to be self-driving as well and for cars to be in constant communication with each other. Both systems should exist and they should compliment each other.

pani00 9y ago

In Europe there is a huge tendency to switch from cars to public transportation. Parking space in the city has become really expensive. New roads are built narrower and narrower in favor of walk-ways and bike lanes and to slow the driving speed down. In Austria there is a decline of about 1% of car owners each year. The US has enough space for gigantic parking lots and wide roads. They don't have the same problems as in Europe. That's a huge difference that you are missing there.

juiyout 9y ago

Own your server is convenient in some ways. What if building HSR is like building an IaaS?