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Just trying to work out how they claim Tesla will be "flooded". The forecasted demand in the article is going to outstrip both China's increase and Tesla's incr
by strictnein 9y ago
Just trying to work out how they claim Tesla will be "flooded". The forecasted demand in the article is going to outstrip both China's increase and Tesla's increase by 2024, and China's major market for their increase will be domestic, per the article.
Current demand: ~75 Gigawatt Hours (GWh)
2021 demand: ~160 GWh
2022 demand: ~195 GWh
2024 demand: ~290 GWh
So the market will need an additional 85GWh by 2021, 110GWh by 2022, and 215GWh by 2024.
Tesla is adding 35GWh by 2018. China is adding 120GWh by 2021. 120 + 35 = 155GWh < 215GWh.
Seems like Tesla will be in a really good spot. They'll have a > 10% share of a highly in demand product and likely be seen as one of the premium/high quality options.
- rottyguy 9y agoPlus Elon has said he wants about 10 Gigafactory to meet demand. On another note, I would be interested to hear from anyone in the industry about the state of Battery Technology. Keep hearing about the demand for Cobalt and how Congo controls about 60% of the world's cobalt supplies and all the moral issues around mining there. Are there good alternatives to using cobalt in battery construction? edit: Also curious about the impact of older batteries to the environment. I see all this talk about moving to EV because it's cleaner tech, but is that true if we have a billion batteries sitting in the landfills at some point?
- vladimirralev 9y agoChina and Tesla are not the only players. There are 100s of other new manufacturers. And a few big names as well. The biggest battery technology patent holders Panasonic and Toshiba, LG, Samsung. GM is up there too.