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Compared to the reputation for far-seeing technocratic excellence that it acquired in the foreign business press, the CCP leadership has always been astonishing

Compared to the reputation for far-seeing technocratic excellence that it acquired in the foreign business press, the CCP leadership has always been astonishingly short-sighted when it comes to foreign policy. The Taiwanese are taking note of what 'one country two systems' means in practice - absolute submission to the ruthless, brutal oligarchy in Beijing. The CCP will crush Hong Kong, destroying everything that made it appealing in the process, and find that in so doing they've permanently alienated Taiwan.

Analemma_ 9y ago
I mentioned this in the last thread about Hong Kong, but they're not as dumb as you think. Taiwan (both the Blue and Green coalitions) has always distrusted "one country, two systems", even way back in the 90s before Hong Kong's autonomy started getting salami-sliced away. China knows that, and knows they're not really losing anything by abandoning that approach. That's not their plan anyway. The parallel tracks for dealing with Taiwan are 1) building ever-closer economic dependency, and then punishing Taiwan every time it elects pro-independence leaders, so that Taiwan has no choice but to elect pro-reunification candidates for the sake of economic security and 2) gradually muscling the US out of the region and building naval capabilities so that if 1) doesn't work out, they can take it back by force. How Taiwan feels about "one country two systems" doesn't really matter to China.
- Gravityloss 9y ago
  But maybe the better question is, why? The people of Taiwan for the most part don't want to be a part of China, and Taiwan doesn't pose a military threat to China.
  - AnimalMuppet 9y ago
    Face? Also, having that island under China's control would be militarily useful in any showdown with the US - it pushes US forces farther from the mainland.
  - georgeecollins 9y ago
    Taiwan is very important to China strategically. It's an unsinkable aircraft carrier off of their coast. Think how sensitive the US has been about Cuba.
- jeffchien 9y ago
  Hmm, I'm not so sure about your assertions. The anti-mainland sentiment fuels the DPP in spite of the disastrous end of the Chen presidency and the mounting dissatisfaction with Tsai and their current legislative majority. Ma met with Xi despite of that anti-mainland sentiment; it's not a huge leap for me to imagine he would have done more if China didn't alienate the Taiwanese public so much. Just yesterday the Senate Armed Services Committee voted for allowing the Navy to dock at Kaohsiung again[1]. It'll be interesting to see how all sides react. 1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-panel-votes-to-allow-navy-to-call-at-taiwanese-ports-1498698547 https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-panel-votes-to-allow-nav...
  - Analemma_ 9y ago
    I don’t think our observations are incompatible :) Note that I didn’t say China’s plan was necessarily working, I think that’s an open question and I’m actually bearish on it: I think the upcoming generation of Taiwanese are less interested than ever in the mainland and can see through this plot. I’m just saying that both countries know “one country, two systems” is a dead letter and so China isn’t worried that the crackdown in Hong Kong is damaging its chances. They know Taiwan wrote it off years ago.
- gech 9y ago
  Why do they just -need- to have Taiwan back that they would kill for it? Just let it be.
  - blackbagboys 9y ago
    The CCP can't formally acknowledge Taiwan's independence from the mainland because that would set a dangerous precedent for the conquered peoples living in Tibet and Xinjiang. Similarly, the party can't formally recognize and respect Taiwan's right to self-governance short of formal independence because the CCP believes (and is probably correct in believing) that any centers of power within China that are not explicitly subordinate to the party are an existential threat. The party really has only two options - the status quo, or the subjugation of the island.
  - prewett 9y ago
    If China doesn't have Taiwan, then some other country (e.g. the US or Japan) can put a naval base there and deny access to a large area. That would be a strategic disaster.
    - dis-sys 9y ago
      not after China can build 6 aircraft carrier combat groups. btw, Japan is no longer in the equation.
awkwarddaturtle 9y ago
> The Taiwanese are taking note of what 'one country two systems' means in practice At the end of the day, what does that matter? There are 1.4 billion who claim taiwan as part of china. Nothing is going to change that. Taiwan can note whatever they want, but at the end of the day, taiwan is going to be a province of china eventually. A lot of what you wrote is a bit hyperbolic. Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on trade with china. If beijing really wanted to alienate taiwan, they would cut all trade with china and seize all of taiwan's asset in china. That would collapse taiwan overnight. Also, the chinese don't see taiwan-relations as part of "foreign policy". They see it as a wholy intra-chinese policy.

Analemma_ 9y ago

I mentioned this in the last thread about Hong Kong, but they're not as dumb as you think. Taiwan (both the Blue and Green coalitions) has always distrusted "one country, two systems", even way back in the 90s before Hong Kong's autonomy started getting salami-sliced away. China knows that, and knows they're not really losing anything by abandoning that approach. That's not their plan anyway. The parallel tracks for dealing with Taiwan are 1) building ever-closer economic dependency, and then punishing Taiwan every time it elects pro-independence leaders, so that Taiwan has no choice but to elect pro-reunification candidates for the sake of economic security and 2) gradually muscling the US out of the region and building naval capabilities so that if 1) doesn't work out, they can take it back by force. How Taiwan feels about "one country two systems" doesn't really matter to China.

Gravityloss 9y ago
But maybe the better question is, why? The people of Taiwan for the most part don't want to be a part of China, and Taiwan doesn't pose a military threat to China.
- AnimalMuppet 9y ago
  Face? Also, having that island under China's control would be militarily useful in any showdown with the US - it pushes US forces farther from the mainland.
- georgeecollins 9y ago
  Taiwan is very important to China strategically. It's an unsinkable aircraft carrier off of their coast. Think how sensitive the US has been about Cuba.
jeffchien 9y ago
Hmm, I'm not so sure about your assertions. The anti-mainland sentiment fuels the DPP in spite of the disastrous end of the Chen presidency and the mounting dissatisfaction with Tsai and their current legislative majority. Ma met with Xi despite of that anti-mainland sentiment; it's not a huge leap for me to imagine he would have done more if China didn't alienate the Taiwanese public so much. Just yesterday the Senate Armed Services Committee voted for allowing the Navy to dock at Kaohsiung again[1]. It'll be interesting to see how all sides react. 1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-panel-votes-to-allow-navy-to-call-at-taiwanese-ports-1498698547 https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-panel-votes-to-allow-nav...
- Analemma_ 9y ago
  I don’t think our observations are incompatible :) Note that I didn’t say China’s plan was necessarily working, I think that’s an open question and I’m actually bearish on it: I think the upcoming generation of Taiwanese are less interested than ever in the mainland and can see through this plot. I’m just saying that both countries know “one country, two systems” is a dead letter and so China isn’t worried that the crackdown in Hong Kong is damaging its chances. They know Taiwan wrote it off years ago.
gech 9y ago
Why do they just -need- to have Taiwan back that they would kill for it? Just let it be.
- blackbagboys 9y ago
  The CCP can't formally acknowledge Taiwan's independence from the mainland because that would set a dangerous precedent for the conquered peoples living in Tibet and Xinjiang. Similarly, the party can't formally recognize and respect Taiwan's right to self-governance short of formal independence because the CCP believes (and is probably correct in believing) that any centers of power within China that are not explicitly subordinate to the party are an existential threat. The party really has only two options - the status quo, or the subjugation of the island.
- prewett 9y ago
  If China doesn't have Taiwan, then some other country (e.g. the US or Japan) can put a naval base there and deny access to a large area. That would be a strategic disaster.
  - dis-sys 9y ago
    not after China can build 6 aircraft carrier combat groups. btw, Japan is no longer in the equation.

awkwarddaturtle 9y ago

> The Taiwanese are taking note of what 'one country two systems' means in practice At the end of the day, what does that matter? There are 1.4 billion who claim taiwan as part of china. Nothing is going to change that. Taiwan can note whatever they want, but at the end of the day, taiwan is going to be a province of china eventually. A lot of what you wrote is a bit hyperbolic. Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on trade with china. If beijing really wanted to alienate taiwan, they would cut all trade with china and seize all of taiwan's asset in china. That would collapse taiwan overnight. Also, the chinese don't see taiwan-relations as part of "foreign policy". They see it as a wholy intra-chinese policy.