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Going forward I'd expect some slowdown Slowdown in funding or launch pace? SpaceX is cutting launch costs significantly. I suspect that many satellite project

Going forward I'd expect some slowdown Slowdown in funding or launch pace? SpaceX is cutting launch costs significantly. I suspect that many satellite projects that weren't viable before will become viable now, thus increasing launch pace.

andrewwharton 9y ago
Slowdown in development pace I believe. Not to take anything away at all, but a large part of the rocket development until now was based on an existing knowledge base from NASA. Going forward, there's going to be more and more uncharted territory, so things will likely progressively slow down, relative to the astonishingly fast development pace up until this point.
- adventured 9y ago
  That premise doesn't inherently follow at all. Quite the opposite. The uncharted territory combined with Musk & Bezos being willing to do audacious things with billions of dollars, is why breakthroughs are about to accelerate again. With scale and greater R&D capabilities, SpaceX will (perhaps along with Blue Origin and others) be responsible for the next great leap forward in space technology - finally. Whereas the US Government launch platforms, through NASA and ULA, had been extremely stagnant in several areas that SpaceX & Co are operating in, due to eg wild (but typical) Congressional incompetence (constantly shifting goals, setting up the context where ULA was granted a monopoly (again due to Congressional incompetence or worse)). The Space Shuttle was an absurd production in all regards, it set US launch progress back decades due to the hyper bloat / cost that was entirely unnecessary. The Shuttle was the space equivalent of the F35, a boondoggle that isn't really great at anything and costs several times what it should have. Now that the incompetent Congress is much further removed when it comes to deciding which way to go (how to get there, why, etc etc etc), space tech will accelerate again.
  - nickik 9y ago
    Consider the capability they had with Saturn V and Apollo. Also, compare how easy it was to make Skylab happen, compared to the ISS. With the Saturn V, a smaller people launcher and Apollo they could have done so much more. Imagen the next Space station after Skylab, they could have launched 4 Saturn V and launch a Skylab size station each time, creating a vastly bigger station then ISS at a minimal cost. Now they are recreating the capability with SLS and Orion at a cost that is so absurdly high that its hard to even wrap you head around the numbers, specially when compared what the pay for COTS and CommercialCrew.
    - ceejayoz 9y ago
      Anyone who's in DC should check out the Skylab module in the Air & Space Museum. It's remarkable how big it is.
      - nickik 9y ago
        I have not seen it, but I think the internal volume is very impressive. Compared to the ISS that looks more connected mining shafts.
  - andrewwharton 9y ago
    Yeah, I accept this argument, but I guess the point I was trying to make is that, as always, they're standing on the shoulders of giants, and Musk is the first to acknowledge the huge contribution from NASA towards their success. I'm rooting for them though to keep doing what they're doing.
- valuearb 9y ago
  Not to take anything from NASA, but a large part of their rocket development was based on an existing knowledge base from the Nazis. NASA has done little to make successful reusable space technology, and abandoned any attempts with the SLS.
  - justinator 9y ago
    Well, Germans. I wouldn't necessarily call Wernher von Braun a Nazi.
    - pault 9y ago
      He _was_ a nazi party member. We don't know if he really _meant_ it though.
      - justinator 9y ago
        Well, the choice was basically, * Become a member of the Nazi Party * Death After WWII he didn't: * Commit Suicide * Exile himself to South America * Face trials for War Crimes He did: * Become a public figure used to sell the space program * Help an Allied power with extremely advanced military and scientific intel * Help put someone on the Moon in a completely unrealistic time frame * Become privy to extremely top secret information I'm going with, "not a Nazi" on this one, personally.
        nikcub 9y ago
        > Well, the choice was basically, > * Become a member of the Nazi Party > * Death No it wasn't. This is what Nazi's say to excuse their decisions and behavior. There were millions of people in Germany in both industry and the military who were not Nazi's and survived just fine. Note that unlike Von Braun many other Germany scientists and weapon designers were not members of the Nazi party (let alone enthusiastic members) Becoming a Nazi and joining the party is what a person consciously did either because they believed in the ideology or they wanted to collaborate to further their careers. Van Braun being washed of his Nazi part is a conscious part of a US government propaganda campaign as Von Braun having safe haven in the USA in the 1950s was very controversial at the time. It's as simple as the USA overlooking his Nazi past and excusing it (and actively covering it up) because the cold war necessitated it. edit: forgot to mention, Von Braun wasn't just a member of the Nazi party - he was a member of the SS - there is zero feasible explanation for becoming an SS member. There is also the small matter of the war crimes he took part in with the enslaved labor at his factory in Peenemünde.
agildehaus 9y ago
A quote from BulgariaSat (launched 2 days ago): “People don’t realize that, for small countries and small companies like us, without SpaceX, there was no way we would ever be able to even think about space." "With them, it was possible. We got a project. I think, in the future, it’s going to be even more affordable because of reusability.”
- gozur88 9y ago
  That's kind of odd, to me, since the Russians aren't that much more expensive than SpaceX, and the pricey bit is usually the payload.
  - simonh 9y ago
    The Russians are only at that price point due to the competition from SpaceX, but the big problem with Proton is the high insurance premiums due to their reliability issues.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      Does anyone know what Proton insurance costs these days?
  - ygra 9y ago
    Perhaps it was a combination of low price (even lower since they got a re-used first stage) as well as the option to go rather soon (again, due to the re-used first stage). Don't know how full other launch providers' manifests are at this point.

andrewwharton 9y ago

Slowdown in development pace I believe. Not to take anything away at all, but a large part of the rocket development until now was based on an existing knowledge base from NASA. Going forward, there's going to be more and more uncharted territory, so things will likely progressively slow down, relative to the astonishingly fast development pace up until this point.

adventured 9y ago
That premise doesn't inherently follow at all. Quite the opposite. The uncharted territory combined with Musk & Bezos being willing to do audacious things with billions of dollars, is why breakthroughs are about to accelerate again. With scale and greater R&D capabilities, SpaceX will (perhaps along with Blue Origin and others) be responsible for the next great leap forward in space technology - finally. Whereas the US Government launch platforms, through NASA and ULA, had been extremely stagnant in several areas that SpaceX & Co are operating in, due to eg wild (but typical) Congressional incompetence (constantly shifting goals, setting up the context where ULA was granted a monopoly (again due to Congressional incompetence or worse)). The Space Shuttle was an absurd production in all regards, it set US launch progress back decades due to the hyper bloat / cost that was entirely unnecessary. The Shuttle was the space equivalent of the F35, a boondoggle that isn't really great at anything and costs several times what it should have. Now that the incompetent Congress is much further removed when it comes to deciding which way to go (how to get there, why, etc etc etc), space tech will accelerate again.
- nickik 9y ago
  Consider the capability they had with Saturn V and Apollo. Also, compare how easy it was to make Skylab happen, compared to the ISS. With the Saturn V, a smaller people launcher and Apollo they could have done so much more. Imagen the next Space station after Skylab, they could have launched 4 Saturn V and launch a Skylab size station each time, creating a vastly bigger station then ISS at a minimal cost. Now they are recreating the capability with SLS and Orion at a cost that is so absurdly high that its hard to even wrap you head around the numbers, specially when compared what the pay for COTS and CommercialCrew.
  - ceejayoz 9y ago
    Anyone who's in DC should check out the Skylab module in the Air & Space Museum. It's remarkable how big it is.
    - nickik 9y ago
      I have not seen it, but I think the internal volume is very impressive. Compared to the ISS that looks more connected mining shafts.
- andrewwharton 9y ago
  Yeah, I accept this argument, but I guess the point I was trying to make is that, as always, they're standing on the shoulders of giants, and Musk is the first to acknowledge the huge contribution from NASA towards their success. I'm rooting for them though to keep doing what they're doing.
valuearb 9y ago
Not to take anything from NASA, but a large part of their rocket development was based on an existing knowledge base from the Nazis. NASA has done little to make successful reusable space technology, and abandoned any attempts with the SLS.
- justinator 9y ago
  Well, Germans. I wouldn't necessarily call Wernher von Braun a Nazi.
  - pault 9y ago
    He _was_ a nazi party member. We don't know if he really _meant_ it though.
    - justinator 9y ago
      Well, the choice was basically, * Become a member of the Nazi Party * Death After WWII he didn't: * Commit Suicide * Exile himself to South America * Face trials for War Crimes He did: * Become a public figure used to sell the space program * Help an Allied power with extremely advanced military and scientific intel * Help put someone on the Moon in a completely unrealistic time frame * Become privy to extremely top secret information I'm going with, "not a Nazi" on this one, personally.
      - nikcub 9y ago
        > Well, the choice was basically, > * Become a member of the Nazi Party > * Death No it wasn't. This is what Nazi's say to excuse their decisions and behavior. There were millions of people in Germany in both industry and the military who were not Nazi's and survived just fine. Note that unlike Von Braun many other Germany scientists and weapon designers were not members of the Nazi party (let alone enthusiastic members) Becoming a Nazi and joining the party is what a person consciously did either because they believed in the ideology or they wanted to collaborate to further their careers. Van Braun being washed of his Nazi part is a conscious part of a US government propaganda campaign as Von Braun having safe haven in the USA in the 1950s was very controversial at the time. It's as simple as the USA overlooking his Nazi past and excusing it (and actively covering it up) because the cold war necessitated it. edit: forgot to mention, Von Braun wasn't just a member of the Nazi party - he was a member of the SS - there is zero feasible explanation for becoming an SS member. There is also the small matter of the war crimes he took part in with the enslaved labor at his factory in Peenemünde.

agildehaus 9y ago

A quote from BulgariaSat (launched 2 days ago): “People don’t realize that, for small countries and small companies like us, without SpaceX, there was no way we would ever be able to even think about space." "With them, it was possible. We got a project. I think, in the future, it’s going to be even more affordable because of reusability.”

gozur88 9y ago
That's kind of odd, to me, since the Russians aren't that much more expensive than SpaceX, and the pricey bit is usually the payload.
- simonh 9y ago
  The Russians are only at that price point due to the competition from SpaceX, but the big problem with Proton is the high insurance premiums due to their reliability issues.
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    Does anyone know what Proton insurance costs these days?
- ygra 9y ago
  Perhaps it was a combination of low price (even lower since they got a re-used first stage) as well as the option to go rather soon (again, due to the re-used first stage). Don't know how full other launch providers' manifests are at this point.