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The argument to increase immigration seems like a quick-fix for countries poised to become elderly-heavy, but when those immigrants are uneducated and most like

The argument to increase immigration seems like a quick-fix for countries poised to become elderly-heavy, but when those immigrants are uneducated and most likely to perform jobs that will be automated away in 15-20 years (and face enormous linguistic barriers to participate in e.g. japanese society), such immigrants may be as much or more long-term dependents as they would have previously been assets in labor-heavy economies. Weathering the geriatric storm for a generation or two until a new and lower post-industrial carrying capacity is reached could be a smoother long term social and economic proposition for such countries, especially if they aren't immigrant-friendly already.

boomboomsubban 9y ago
The problem is in the future, and those uneducated immigrants will have college aged kids in the time frame you mention. They will have the resources needed to develop this automated society, and the automation of labor makes being a dependent less of an issue.
ythn 9y ago
Also Japan is xenophobic so such a solution would never fly anyway
- bluthru 9y ago
  Nations are more than identity-less economic zones.
- justboxing 9y ago
  Saying "Japan is xenophobic" is perhaps a poor choice of words, but why the downvotes?? Even if Japanese Citizens are welcoming of and friendly towards foreigners, Japan as a Country is quite well known for it's strict immigration policy. > Discrimination in Japan is based on nationality. Guest workers are not considered true immigrants, and their children and grandchildren are often seen as outsiders because of the absence of birthright citizenship. Employers tend to treat them as foreigners. Source: Immigration Is Tough for Japan, But it's the solution for population loss. => https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-12-07/immigration-is-a-tough-one-for-japan-to-swallow https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-12-07/immigrati... and > Call it an opportunity, maybe, but don’t call it work. Legally, the time Ms. Liu spent ironing and packing women’s wear in Japan is considered “training.” She had entered the murky and at times abusive world of Japan’s technical trainees — essentially second-class laborers brought in from abroad to fill jobs that Japanese citizens aren’t taking. Source: Japan Limited Immigration; Now It’s Short of Workers => https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants-workers-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants...
  - nihonde 9y ago
    Xenophobia implies malintent and an unenlightened view. I could just as easily say that Japan is very protective of its society and thus is selective about who gets to join. It is fundamentally a balanced approach to immigration. Of course, this is offensive to those who have been indoctrinated with the dogma that all people are the same and deserve the same opportunities, regardless of the cost to society. I think you can see clearly the flaws in the post-enlightenment primacy of personal liberty in America and Europe today. It's a kind of extremism, which will inevitably repeat the cycle of destruction, revolution, conquest, etc.
    - mistermann 9y ago
      > those who have been indoctrinated with the dogma that all people are the same It's amazing how widespread and deeply ingrained an idea perhaps 20 years old is, especially considering how obviously false it is from simple observation. Of course, it hasn't been an organic acceptance.
      - bluthru 9y ago
        People have only heard one side of the argument from mainstream "news" sources their entire lives, even though the social science is clear that diversity is bad for social trust, empathy, peace, etc.
andreiw 9y ago
Cap'n Obvious here, but immigration by non-Japanese in face of falling Japanese demographics will ultimately result in a country that's not really Japan anymore. That's probably a fact of life, if you consider societies to be living entities, and thus bound by the same constraints...and yet even as a non-Japanese it feels really sad to recognize that Japan as a unique nation, with a unique culture and society might disappear. Not much to do, though, if they don't want to have kids...
- akg_67 9y ago
  Societies come and go and there is nothing wrong with it that was the response I got from a Japanese elderly man few years ago when we were discussing declining population and future of Japan during my visit to Japan.
  - nihonde 9y ago
    Japan's great skill is adaptation without throwing away all the lessons of the past. It's an extremely delicate balancing act that requires a lot of trust in your neighbors. They've been doing it more or less for at least a thousand years, so there's plenty of room for an optimistic outcome. As usual, the narrative in the west is that Japan is going to fail any minute because it hasn't followed the lead of enlightened nations. Meanwhile, moving from NYC to Japan felt like leaping twenty years into a brighter future that I can only hope others will be able to discover. One thing is for sure: Japan in fifty years won't be the same as Japan today. Rapid and determined change is a constant here.
- boomboomsubban 9y ago
  Most of the unique elements of Japan's culture come from emulating Western programs. First in a militaristic way as a response to Commodore Perry, then as a result of the post-war occupation.
  - nopinsight 9y ago
    Tea ceremony, Zen buddhism, Geisha, Samurai, ... from emulating Western programs? Have you read about Japanese culture before commenting?
mirimir 9y ago
True. Japan has long been a leader in automation. Maybe they can pull it off. And elder care will be largely automated too. On the other hand, limitations on immigration (not just to Japan, I suspect) won't reduce overall population growth. Indeed, it will arguably increase it, because those people will be stuck in subsistence economies.
6t6t6t6 9y ago
I think that your comment in not accurate in this context. Most of the work visas that are extended in Japan are for qualified jobs. Having a university degree is mandatory for most of the types of visa. Also, they need to offer you a good salary. Actually, one of the few ways to get a visa without having qualification is to come from an English speaking country and work as an English teacher because they need a lot them. http://www.juridique.jp/immigration.html#workvisa http://www.juridique.jp/immigration.html#workvisa

boomboomsubban 9y ago

The problem is in the future, and those uneducated immigrants will have college aged kids in the time frame you mention. They will have the resources needed to develop this automated society, and the automation of labor makes being a dependent less of an issue.

ythn 9y ago

Also Japan is xenophobic so such a solution would never fly anyway

bluthru 9y ago
Nations are more than identity-less economic zones.
justboxing 9y ago
Saying "Japan is xenophobic" is perhaps a poor choice of words, but why the downvotes?? Even if Japanese Citizens are welcoming of and friendly towards foreigners, Japan as a Country is quite well known for it's strict immigration policy. > Discrimination in Japan is based on nationality. Guest workers are not considered true immigrants, and their children and grandchildren are often seen as outsiders because of the absence of birthright citizenship. Employers tend to treat them as foreigners. Source: Immigration Is Tough for Japan, But it's the solution for population loss. => https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-12-07/immigration-is-a-tough-one-for-japan-to-swallow https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-12-07/immigrati... and > Call it an opportunity, maybe, but don’t call it work. Legally, the time Ms. Liu spent ironing and packing women’s wear in Japan is considered “training.” She had entered the murky and at times abusive world of Japan’s technical trainees — essentially second-class laborers brought in from abroad to fill jobs that Japanese citizens aren’t taking. Source: Japan Limited Immigration; Now It’s Short of Workers => https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants-workers-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants...
- nihonde 9y ago
  Xenophobia implies malintent and an unenlightened view. I could just as easily say that Japan is very protective of its society and thus is selective about who gets to join. It is fundamentally a balanced approach to immigration. Of course, this is offensive to those who have been indoctrinated with the dogma that all people are the same and deserve the same opportunities, regardless of the cost to society. I think you can see clearly the flaws in the post-enlightenment primacy of personal liberty in America and Europe today. It's a kind of extremism, which will inevitably repeat the cycle of destruction, revolution, conquest, etc.
  - mistermann 9y ago
    > those who have been indoctrinated with the dogma that all people are the same It's amazing how widespread and deeply ingrained an idea perhaps 20 years old is, especially considering how obviously false it is from simple observation. Of course, it hasn't been an organic acceptance.
    - bluthru 9y ago
      People have only heard one side of the argument from mainstream "news" sources their entire lives, even though the social science is clear that diversity is bad for social trust, empathy, peace, etc.

andreiw 9y ago

Cap'n Obvious here, but immigration by non-Japanese in face of falling Japanese demographics will ultimately result in a country that's not really Japan anymore. That's probably a fact of life, if you consider societies to be living entities, and thus bound by the same constraints...and yet even as a non-Japanese it feels really sad to recognize that Japan as a unique nation, with a unique culture and society might disappear. Not much to do, though, if they don't want to have kids...

akg_67 9y ago
Societies come and go and there is nothing wrong with it that was the response I got from a Japanese elderly man few years ago when we were discussing declining population and future of Japan during my visit to Japan.
- nihonde 9y ago
  Japan's great skill is adaptation without throwing away all the lessons of the past. It's an extremely delicate balancing act that requires a lot of trust in your neighbors. They've been doing it more or less for at least a thousand years, so there's plenty of room for an optimistic outcome. As usual, the narrative in the west is that Japan is going to fail any minute because it hasn't followed the lead of enlightened nations. Meanwhile, moving from NYC to Japan felt like leaping twenty years into a brighter future that I can only hope others will be able to discover. One thing is for sure: Japan in fifty years won't be the same as Japan today. Rapid and determined change is a constant here.
boomboomsubban 9y ago
Most of the unique elements of Japan's culture come from emulating Western programs. First in a militaristic way as a response to Commodore Perry, then as a result of the post-war occupation.
- nopinsight 9y ago
  Tea ceremony, Zen buddhism, Geisha, Samurai, ... from emulating Western programs? Have you read about Japanese culture before commenting?

mirimir 9y ago

True. Japan has long been a leader in automation. Maybe they can pull it off. And elder care will be largely automated too. On the other hand, limitations on immigration (not just to Japan, I suspect) won't reduce overall population growth. Indeed, it will arguably increase it, because those people will be stuck in subsistence economies.

6t6t6t6 9y ago

I think that your comment in not accurate in this context. Most of the work visas that are extended in Japan are for qualified jobs. Having a university degree is mandatory for most of the types of visa. Also, they need to offer you a good salary. Actually, one of the few ways to get a visa without having qualification is to come from an English speaking country and work as an English teacher because they need a lot them. http://www.juridique.jp/immigration.html#workvisa http://www.juridique.jp/immigration.html#workvisa