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I'm going to invite a flurry of disagreement here, but I'm just going to say it. Investing is not the answer, trading is. II and SA are phenomenal books, but
by arthurdent 16y ago
I'm going to invite a flurry of disagreement here, but I'm just going to say it. Investing is not the answer, trading is.
II and SA are phenomenal books, but they are also more relevant to a different time in market history. The basic tenets certainly hold true. (Ben Graham famously loved buying companies under book value. Thats still a winning bet and will continue to be.)
Its important to realize the macro picture here as well though. The last 70 years have produced tons of literature saying that long term growth is the way to do it and that int he last 70 years long term investments have outperformed. This period of "proven returns" coincides with the US rising to the world superpower, becoming the richest nation on earth, and spending beyond our means.
I have a massive faith in America, but its irresponsible to not consider that times have changed. The next 70 years could be like the last 70, but we stand at a social/economic/global power precipice which could imply a dramatically different America in 10 years. If the American economy sucks hard for the enxt 10 years, returns are just going to suck. Long buy and hold portfolios have won in large part also because the American economy has expanded for the last 70 years.
The other huge difference is that HN is comprised primarily of extremely computer savvy people. The tools wielded by the readers here are uniquely suited to tackle financial problems that can produce excess returns that far exceed
The risks aren't significantly higher, yet the upside is disproportionately greater when utilizing the techniques (computing) and infrastructure (electronic markets and cheap execution) that have become available in the last 10 years that did not exist in almost the entire duration of the period that produced all of the "buy and hold is the only way to go" literature.
HN people are smart. REAL smart. That's why a lot of people have read mountains of literature to educate themselves. Unfortunately, the success of buy and hold strategies in the last X years produced a bias towards that sort of literature and everyone's drank the kool-aid.
The last 5 years, and even more the last 2 years have democratized the quantitative trading process, exposed the tools to those not in the industry, and changed the face of finance.
There's still a place for the Intelligent Investor. But if you're the average HN reader, Ben Graham style investing isn't your best shot in finance. Quantitative trading is. Both will take a lot of work. It won't be easy. But if you're going to invest serious time, think about how much the tools and the game have changed in the last 2 years and ask yourself if you really think that all the literature that predates this change is indicative of the new world.
I too believe you can turn 100k to $1mm. and I think you can do it a lot faster.
- jimbokun 16y ago"I have a massive faith in America, but its irresponsible to not consider that times have changed." So diversify with foreign assets.
- arthurdent 16y agogreat idea. that's exactly what you should do if you're insisting on an intelligent investor style value portfolio, and thats what Buffet does. But the real point is that trading isn't a chump game and the entire notion of "long term holding is the best strategy" is premised on a lot of old notions that predate the current market environment.
- davidw 16y ago> Ben Graham famously loved buying companies under book value I read 'The Snowball' about Buffett, and one of the things he mentions was sitting around compiling these forms about companies to determine their value. Isn't that the kind of thing that's automated these days? And if it's automated, it means someone big is likely doing it better than you can. In other words, Graham had an advantage because he was doing something noone else did at the time, and had some very real costs associated with it (paying people to sift through data) that don't exist today. But then again, I don't know much about this stuff...