20 ms·
One of my favorite things about the stock market is you know exactly how good you are at all times. Your bank roll is your track record and its very black and
by chollida1 9y ago
One of my favorite things about the stock market is you know exactly how good you are at all times. Your bank roll is your track record and its very black and white.
Has anyone seen any returns for Numerai? They've been around for a while and I wish they would "put up or shut up" as the saying goes. I see that they have paid out money to developers but its not clear if the fund itself is generating alpha above their benchmark index or not.
One of my jobs is to review people who claim to have created algos that can generate alpha. Sadly it's very common for people to talk a big game about the returns they can generate, but then are unable to show any reliable track record when pressed.
Some of reasons I've heard:
- well we weren't actually trading, this is just all theoretical results
- well we didn't include the first 6 months of the year as we weren't profitable yet
- yes if you don't include theses particular trades we were profitable.
- yes we made money, its just that the market itself made more with less volatility.
I really would like Numerai to succeed, mostly because I'm interested in if the idea of mixing 1000's of models together and letting people vote on their weightings can succeed.
- likelynew 9y ago> Your bank roll is your track record and its very black and white. This is one of the biggest falsity. If someone invest in any one share, there is very high chance you will be above average for a long time.
- gedrap 9y ago> One of my favorite things about the stock market is you know exactly how good you are at all times. Your bank roll is your track record and its very black and white In the very long run, yes. But if you apply this to a short term (a week? a month?), that might lead to a rather fatal ego boost. I believe, that this is something that everyone interested in trading has to be aware of.
- mattnewton 9y agoA fatal ego boost or a missed opportunity. As the old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- jnordwick 9y agoFrom my experience (i work in trading) that saying is more often used by people who had their ass handed to them by the market and don't want to admit they were wrong. The market doesn't just go irrational. There are always reasons, just that sometimes they are non-obvious even in retrospect.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- omarchowdhury 9y agoMarkets don't go irrational? Ever heard of the Tulip bulb craze or the dotcom bubble? In fact, one could argue that markets are fundamentally irrational since no one has perfect information! The only rationality is the reaction to change!
- dsacco 9y agoThe evidence for the Tulip bulb "bubble", while oft-cited, is actually questionable.
- mattnewton 9y agoYeah, I don't work near trading, but for me it has always meant that you can be "right" about the long term trend but really wrong about the timing. And the timing is just as important.
- lordnacho 9y ago> Some of reasons I've heard: Here's some more: - I don't know what the capital requirement is. - I don't know what agreements we need. - I don't know what machines/networks we need. I'm also intrigued by the Numerai story. Haven't seen any numbers, though.
- xapata 9y ago> you know exactly how good you are at all times Ever heard a poker player tell a "bad beat" story?
- microtherion 9y agoHey, I've heard Chess players tell me a "bad beat" story after losing to me.
- bookmarkacc 9y agoOnly bad players who don't understand variance.
- xapata 9y agoAww. The bad beats are what stand out! Even better when you're the villain, pulling that last deuce on the river.
- sdenton4 9y ago"...1000's of models..." So, you want an index fund work the additional overhead of a cryptocoin mining operation? In the absence of learnable signal, am index fund is essentially what you'll end up with...