4 ms·

I'm still holding out hope for autonomous cars within a decade. Technology-wise we're pretty much there. The hard part will be convincing the public and gover

by dfranke 19y ago

I'm still holding out hope for autonomous cars within a decade. Technology-wise we're pretty much there. The hard part will be convincing the public and government regulators to accept them.

ardit33 19y ago
not gonna happen. People Just wont trust it. Just like mass trasport with "flying cars" are not going to happen this century. High speed rail (200+ mph), and smaller cars for city transport will prevail. Wait until gas hits 6$/gallon, and then you will see the change on american attitudes to transport. I remind you that the population density of USA is about 31/km², while europe's is about 112/km², and appart NYC, there are no really very dense areas in this country. Even SF has about half of the density of the average European city. So even if the population doubles in the next 50 years, current technology (or the model of life you see in Europe), will be enough. Anything else too drastic, will probably be too expensive to develop.
icky 19y ago
A coworker of mine who's been in the GIS industry for about as long as said industry has existed gave that very same assessment. The real obstacles at this point are social: people will freak out at the thought of robot trucks driving on the same highways as they do (or stealing their trucking jobs). I give the example of trucks on highways because that would probably come first, as it's simpler to safely implement than passenger vehicles or city driving.
- jimbokun 19y ago
  "(or stealing their trucking jobs)" This was covered in a Simpsons episode. Turns out that all the trucks already drive themselves, but the truckers' union has prevented that information getting out to the general public. (Couldn't find it on youtube.)
DanielBMarkham 19y ago
I'd give it 25 years. The tech is mostly there, agreed. Too much social upheaval to happen very soon. My guess is that you will see incremental robot cars. First we'll have "smart cruise control" that will pace with the cars in front of you. Then we'll have "smart obstacle detection" to prevent you from backing over stuff you can't see. Then "auto parallel parking", then something like "interstate cruise" where the vehicle stays on an interstate from the on-ramp to the off-ramp (no pedestrians and little distractions. Then something like "last mile cruise" where the car learns how you get that last mile home, including working the garage opener and stopping for the mail. We've already got the first few of these, albeit in different vehicles. What car makers need to do is not deploy robot trucking, but deploy incremental features that people will go "Wow! Gotta have one of those!" without doing so much that it sounds threatening. I know I'd snap up something like interstate cruise in a heartbeat. Also don't count out the impact of the military: if DoD has auto vehicles (and that cool 4-legged robot) as part of it's daily operations, people are going to want the same at home.

by dfranke 19y ago

I'm still holding out hope for autonomous cars within a decade. Technology-wise we're pretty much there. The hard part will be convincing the public and government regulators to accept them.

ardit33 19y ago

not gonna happen. People Just wont trust it. Just like mass trasport with "flying cars" are not going to happen this century. High speed rail (200+ mph), and smaller cars for city transport will prevail. Wait until gas hits 6$/gallon, and then you will see the change on american attitudes to transport. I remind you that the population density of USA is about 31/km², while europe's is about 112/km², and appart NYC, there are no really very dense areas in this country. Even SF has about half of the density of the average European city. So even if the population doubles in the next 50 years, current technology (or the model of life you see in Europe), will be enough. Anything else too drastic, will probably be too expensive to develop.

icky 19y ago

A coworker of mine who's been in the GIS industry for about as long as said industry has existed gave that very same assessment. The real obstacles at this point are social: people will freak out at the thought of robot trucks driving on the same highways as they do (or stealing their trucking jobs). I give the example of trucks on highways because that would probably come first, as it's simpler to safely implement than passenger vehicles or city driving.

jimbokun 19y ago
"(or stealing their trucking jobs)" This was covered in a Simpsons episode. Turns out that all the trucks already drive themselves, but the truckers' union has prevented that information getting out to the general public. (Couldn't find it on youtube.)

DanielBMarkham 19y ago

I'd give it 25 years. The tech is mostly there, agreed. Too much social upheaval to happen very soon. My guess is that you will see incremental robot cars. First we'll have "smart cruise control" that will pace with the cars in front of you. Then we'll have "smart obstacle detection" to prevent you from backing over stuff you can't see. Then "auto parallel parking", then something like "interstate cruise" where the vehicle stays on an interstate from the on-ramp to the off-ramp (no pedestrians and little distractions. Then something like "last mile cruise" where the car learns how you get that last mile home, including working the garage opener and stopping for the mail. We've already got the first few of these, albeit in different vehicles. What car makers need to do is not deploy robot trucking, but deploy incremental features that people will go "Wow! Gotta have one of those!" without doing so much that it sounds threatening. I know I'd snap up something like interstate cruise in a heartbeat. Also don't count out the impact of the military: if DoD has auto vehicles (and that cool 4-legged robot) as part of it's daily operations, people are going to want the same at home.