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This only holds if you think driverless buses are simply a standard scheduled bus service with no human driver. But I can already imagine on-demand or dynamic b

This only holds if you think driverless buses are simply a standard scheduled bus service with no human driver. But I can already imagine on-demand or dynamic bus dispatch/routing that could be an order of magnitude improvement in mass transit service level to some communities.

dagw 9y ago
I wonder what the cost breakdown is between driver salaries and buying/maintaining the actual buses for bus routes today. I suspect that just getting rid of drivers won't save huge amount money, especially since driver-less buses will no doubt cost a lot more than 'normal' buses.
- foota 9y ago
  I'm not so sure about this, I figure bus drivers probably make.. 40? 50? thousand a year. I'd imagine bus maintenance is smaller than that.
  - atonse 9y ago
    In union environments the make a LOT more. They probably cost organizations on the order of $150,000 each.
    - kuschku 9y ago
      Lol. Currently the average bus driver in a union-negotiated contract in Germany makes 29'000 EUR a year. Pre-Tax. Post tax, 21'000 EUR are left. Overall, a transit company pays around 45'000 EUR a year for a bus driver. Unionized.
      - atonse 9y ago
        Not in the US. D.C. Drivers routinely make six figures after you account for all the ways they game the overtime rules.
- ant6n 9y ago
  The driver is the main cost. Per bus you need multiple drivers to keep it running 16-20 hours per day, every day.
  - dogma1138 9y ago
    I would like to see the costs of the drivers vs the insurance and yearly settlement costs for the company. Based on the numbers from the TFL for example while the drivers do cost they don't make up the bulk of the workforce.
    - ant6n 9y ago
      Well go look it up and report back here. Tfl is a bad example of a bus transit agency, because it really isn't one.
      - dogma1138 9y ago
        I would reserve judgment then, because I could not find information that proves your initial assertion. It seems that the only information which is available is from large nearly national public transportation providers like the TFL, HK Transport Department etc. TFL is a bus transit agency, its one of the largest bus operators in the world. Looking at other companies like Arriva and NationalExpress which are large private bus operators again the drivers do not seem to be the bulk of their operating costs.
        ant6n 9y ago
        "Driver labor, and related time-based costs, are the dominant element – often 70% or more — of transit operating budgets in the developed world. The only exception is a fully automated driverless service, such as Vancouver’s SkyTrain." - Transit Expert Jarret Walker http://humantransit.org/2011/07/02box.html http://humantransit.org/2011/07/02box.html (I know making comments about downvotes is boring, but I always get downvoted a lot on HN on transit/urbanism issues, people here don't have much of a clue...)
dogma1138 9y ago
That isn't a bus, that is car hire. Busses and other public transport work well because you have a route which makes it predictable people know when and where they can get onto a bus, and where they can get off and how long the ride will take. There is no point of using 50+ people bus as an Uber. A small car service would be better for that, it's also the reason why taxis do not use larger vehicles unless you book a special ride upfront. Even with ride sharing it's often more efficient to have point to point transport when you are not using a route, or at best have only 1-2 stops on the way; in such case a bus is unnecessarily wasteful. But yet again this isn't anything that cannot be done now without a driverless bus, you have GPS nothing stops public transport companies from implementing dynamic routes now the driver isn't the problem. Most bus lines do have "dynamic" dispatching already BTW, peak hours tend to have more busses on a given route than off-peak hours, what you are suggesting is to have dynamic routes, which is basically Uber.
- marcosdumay 9y ago
  If you put 20 people on that "car", it's a bus. Small buses can adjust their route to get you reasonably quick point to point transport while still being collective transportation. I do agree that is something that could be done today, if only governments let people do it. No need for self driving buses.
  - dogma1138 9y ago
    There are plenty of places that allow for small (van sized) private bus/shuttles to operate, they however do not seem want to go that route and usually either shadow existing bus route or have their own routes where buses do not usually go (and usually a mix of both). The problem is that when you turn busses into cars for hire you end up in a situation where you'll get a lot of people pissed all the time. Ride sharing with even 5 people that are not bound to the same destination is a nightmare. Think about what happen when you have a bus with 18 people that is diverted because someone called it and then cancels it? How do you plan stops? Uber can stop nearly anywhere a bus usually needs bus stop not just to not block traffic but because people need to be able to safely get on and off the bus which is much harder to do than with a car as a bus blocks the view much more than a smaller sedan. Sorry; I'll buy a Tesla that works for Uber while you are at work all day long, I will not buy ridesharing with on-demand hailing and bespoke routes and destinations with 20 people on board. The best thing you can do get working is a fixed route without fixed stops, and this works today it's called hop-on-hop-off busses and it works in many places including London.
eeZah7Ux 9y ago
On top of that, it allows for 9-seater minibuses with flexible, custom routes that largely replace cars.

dagw 9y ago

I wonder what the cost breakdown is between driver salaries and buying/maintaining the actual buses for bus routes today. I suspect that just getting rid of drivers won't save huge amount money, especially since driver-less buses will no doubt cost a lot more than 'normal' buses.

foota 9y ago
I'm not so sure about this, I figure bus drivers probably make.. 40? 50? thousand a year. I'd imagine bus maintenance is smaller than that.
- atonse 9y ago
  In union environments the make a LOT more. They probably cost organizations on the order of $150,000 each.
  - kuschku 9y ago
    Lol. Currently the average bus driver in a union-negotiated contract in Germany makes 29'000 EUR a year. Pre-Tax. Post tax, 21'000 EUR are left. Overall, a transit company pays around 45'000 EUR a year for a bus driver. Unionized.
    - atonse 9y ago
      Not in the US. D.C. Drivers routinely make six figures after you account for all the ways they game the overtime rules.
ant6n 9y ago
The driver is the main cost. Per bus you need multiple drivers to keep it running 16-20 hours per day, every day.
- dogma1138 9y ago
  I would like to see the costs of the drivers vs the insurance and yearly settlement costs for the company. Based on the numbers from the TFL for example while the drivers do cost they don't make up the bulk of the workforce.
  - ant6n 9y ago
    Well go look it up and report back here. Tfl is a bad example of a bus transit agency, because it really isn't one.
    - dogma1138 9y ago
      I would reserve judgment then, because I could not find information that proves your initial assertion. It seems that the only information which is available is from large nearly national public transportation providers like the TFL, HK Transport Department etc. TFL is a bus transit agency, its one of the largest bus operators in the world. Looking at other companies like Arriva and NationalExpress which are large private bus operators again the drivers do not seem to be the bulk of their operating costs.
      - ant6n 9y ago
        "Driver labor, and related time-based costs, are the dominant element – often 70% or more — of transit operating budgets in the developed world. The only exception is a fully automated driverless service, such as Vancouver’s SkyTrain." - Transit Expert Jarret Walker http://humantransit.org/2011/07/02box.html http://humantransit.org/2011/07/02box.html (I know making comments about downvotes is boring, but I always get downvoted a lot on HN on transit/urbanism issues, people here don't have much of a clue...)

dogma1138 9y ago

That isn't a bus, that is car hire. Busses and other public transport work well because you have a route which makes it predictable people know when and where they can get onto a bus, and where they can get off and how long the ride will take. There is no point of using 50+ people bus as an Uber. A small car service would be better for that, it's also the reason why taxis do not use larger vehicles unless you book a special ride upfront. Even with ride sharing it's often more efficient to have point to point transport when you are not using a route, or at best have only 1-2 stops on the way; in such case a bus is unnecessarily wasteful. But yet again this isn't anything that cannot be done now without a driverless bus, you have GPS nothing stops public transport companies from implementing dynamic routes now the driver isn't the problem. Most bus lines do have "dynamic" dispatching already BTW, peak hours tend to have more busses on a given route than off-peak hours, what you are suggesting is to have dynamic routes, which is basically Uber.

marcosdumay 9y ago
If you put 20 people on that "car", it's a bus. Small buses can adjust their route to get you reasonably quick point to point transport while still being collective transportation. I do agree that is something that could be done today, if only governments let people do it. No need for self driving buses.
- dogma1138 9y ago
  There are plenty of places that allow for small (van sized) private bus/shuttles to operate, they however do not seem want to go that route and usually either shadow existing bus route or have their own routes where buses do not usually go (and usually a mix of both). The problem is that when you turn busses into cars for hire you end up in a situation where you'll get a lot of people pissed all the time. Ride sharing with even 5 people that are not bound to the same destination is a nightmare. Think about what happen when you have a bus with 18 people that is diverted because someone called it and then cancels it? How do you plan stops? Uber can stop nearly anywhere a bus usually needs bus stop not just to not block traffic but because people need to be able to safely get on and off the bus which is much harder to do than with a car as a bus blocks the view much more than a smaller sedan. Sorry; I'll buy a Tesla that works for Uber while you are at work all day long, I will not buy ridesharing with on-demand hailing and bespoke routes and destinations with 20 people on board. The best thing you can do get working is a fixed route without fixed stops, and this works today it's called hop-on-hop-off busses and it works in many places including London.

eeZah7Ux 9y ago

On top of that, it allows for 9-seater minibuses with flexible, custom routes that largely replace cars.