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I wonder why so many financial publications, who supposedly know a thing or two about economics, sound so woefully ignorant when contemplating the behavior of y
by StevePerkins 9y ago
I wonder why so many financial publications, who supposedly know a thing or two about economics, sound so woefully ignorant when contemplating the behavior of younger generations?
"Millennials are buying fewer cars and houses. Does their 'culture' favor non-ownership?"
No... they have higher levels of student load debt than previous generations, and lower income prospects due to stagnating wages. Almost everyone I know who DOES get a high-paying job eventually winds up buying a car and house.
"Fewer teenagers are working jobs. Are they more lazy?"
No... there are more unemployed adults these days, who are forced into the restaurant and retail jobs traditionally filled by teens. As professionals in the financial industry, surely you understand well enough that the official "unemployment rate" does not reflect the true "labor participation" rate.
Is all of this willful ignorance? Or are financial writers not researching and thinking anymore?
- kaonashi 9y agoIf you acknowledge a political problem, the next logical step is proposing a political solution. If you are ideologically incapable of agreeing with the latter, it will affect your ability to recognize the former.
- vram22 9y agoThere is that quote about a man believing or not believing something if his salary depends on it ...
- bgun 9y agoThe actual article does indeed address most if not all of the exact issues you just raised, for example: Why aren't teens working?... They're being crowded out of the workforce by older Americans, now working past 65 at the highest rates in more than 50 years. Immigrants are competing with teens for jobs... College-bound teens aren't looking for work because the money doesn't go as far as it used to. Perhaps the headline is asking a "willfully ignorant" question; but the reason is to get you to click through to the article, which does seem to be trying to put forth some theories.
- AdamN 9y agoa rhetorical question - very useful for getting one's point across.
- lazaroclapp 9y agoWith the caveat that for anyone actually looking for a nuanced article, that headline is far more likely to cause them to dismiss it than to click through. But I suppose there will always be other information sources targeting that demographic, with titles along the lines of "Emergent incentive structures for labor participation of middle class teens in labor over-supplied developed economies"[1], or something of the sort. [1] Entirely fictitious title, was too millennial and lazy to find a proper article studying this ;)
- mirimir 9y agoIt also points out that more teens are in school during the summer. I certainly was, and that was many years ago. Also, I can't resist griping about this: > The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent in May, the lowest in 16 years, ... The article later discloses that the labor force participation rate is now about 63%. And it hasn't recovered at all since 2008. It's just plateaued.
- simulate 9y agoHere's an online tool to explore the labor force participation rate over the past several decades: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 Since 1970, the rate has varied between 60% and 67%. It peaked at around 67% in 1998 and is currently around 63%.
- mirimir 9y agoThanks. It hovered around 60% until 1970, and then increased, hitting about 67% in 2000. I'm guessing that reflected increasing paid employment of women, at least in part. Since 2000, it's dropped, plateauing at around 66% until 2008, and then plateauing at around 63% since 2012.
- 9y ago
- rmrm 9y agoYour experience is very unevenly distributed, at least for the second item. Around here, restaraunts, car washes, and retailers will hire anyone, they all have signs up. The car wash starts at $15/hr...good teenager money. I was just speaking to a an established restaurant owner who is raising menu prices so he can try to pay more to keep bus boys and servers as the market is so competitive. Which is what would be expected in a tight labor market. I do not see a lack of retail and restaurant jobs, or those jobs being taken by old people.
- jacobush 9y agoWhere are you?
- logfromblammo 9y agoParent is 45 minutes from San Francisco in the direction of wine country, based on HN posting history. So... not representative of most of the US.
- rmrm 9y agoMy counties unemployment rate is slightly lower than the overall US unemployment rate. Not much.
- logfromblammo 9y agoI was thinking more about the local cost of living than the unemployment rate. I suspect teenagers can get $15/hr jobs in counties near NYC, too. They can't get that much in places like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Birmingham, or Memphis, though.
- rmrm 9y agoYes thats fair, so far as whether $15 sounds like a lot, or teenager pocket money kind of money.
- 9y ago
- notadoc 9y ago> there are more unemployed adults these days, who are forced into the restaurant and retail jobs traditionally filled by teens. While I generally agree with that thesis, everywhere I go in the USA I see an abundance of job openings at those levels. Help wanted signs are literally everywhere. Unemployment is at 4%, which is nearly full employment - yes there is a separate wages problem too, but right now nearly nationwide there are huge numbers of job openings for low skilled work.
- wand3r 9y ago2 anecdotes: I work as a waiter and there are people in their late 20s and several over 50. College grads and older folks are (in my area) filling positions held by 19-25 year olds. 2. Radio shack had a were hiring ad at all locations in my area up until a few weeks ago when they went under. It signals they were doing well. Also, companies are always trying to add people with great skills or replace people if they have high turnover. They might not actually be hiring, just backing themselves up or replacing people.
- Consultant32452 9y agoThe labor participation rate is the lowest it's been since the 70s when we largely didn't allow women to work. The 4% unemployment rate is missing a lot of the story.
- bmelton 9y agoMaybe the rhetoric has shifted now that the administration was changed, but the last time I checked, the labor participation rate was largely attributable to: * Retiring baby boomers * Married women not needing to work * Young, work-eligible adults are in college, not employed * Robust-enough welfare that work is optional Aside from the latter, I don't know that any of the above are cause for concern.
- thesagan 9y agoI'd like to see more data that counteracts the data I keep seeing: 1. Baby boomers are not retiring at the levels previously expected, and they're not retiring (and slowing down promotions for juniors). 2. Marriage rates are lower than ever. Single parent households are becoming a new norm. 3. Too many college graduates have experienced low salaries or poor job prospects compared to expectations (and now they're defaulting on their loans!) 4. Welfare/transfers are not enough and mostly go to those already in jobs, subsidizing the low wages. (The Walmart class, etc.) Now we have political instability and that's not a cause for concern?
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- r00fus 9y agoTo take it one step further, when does willful ignorance become disinformation and manipulation?
- brockvond 9y agoits willful ignorance to a more complex issue and all journalists are becoming more and more lazy and so the answer is ... BOTH, natch.