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1. Consumer AR market - mobile phone AR-enabled applications - education/gaming/entertainment/enhanced retail. Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat would all be

1. Consumer AR market - mobile phone AR-enabled applications - education/gaming/entertainment/enhanced retail. Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat would all beg to differ that this market does not exist. 2. Enterprise/industrial AR market - wearable AR-enabled applications - I've already listed them. This market is very small currently...but it exists. I've talked to engineers and AR tool vendors in this market, creating applications for Vuzix, Epson devices. My argument is that this portion of the market will see a lot of growth over the next 5 years. Hard to explain Microsoft's play with Hololens, or PTC's ThingWorx Studio tracking tech away. 3. They are in a jam with AR application developers specifically, not all developers as a whole. You're right they have a large, strong mobile developer base, but AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. They're playing in AR because they're looking for the new iPhone...a new form factor to deliver new applications and jump start sales. AR glasses could be that form factor if they can execute like Jobs did with the smartphone.

erikpukinskis 9y ago
> Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat Apple is doing very well for these applications, so again they're not behind. > Enterprise/industrial...This market is very small currently Exactly. > AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. Why are you so sure they will leave mobile? Wearables have three benefits: 1) hands-free, 2) immersive, 3) Stereo vision. None of those features have shown to be required for AR killer apps. So far the leading apps (Pokemon Go, SnapChat, etc) have not needed them. Do you have some reason to speculate that those specific benefits 1-3 will grow in importance? Hands-on/non-immersive is actually a feature in some ways, it allows the user more control over their degree of immersion. And head mounted overlay AR requires a massive increase in processing power in order to get acceptable latency. Latency doesn't matter as much for handheld passthrough AR. Lots of tradeoffs there, it's not clear to me HMDs are a win for consumer applications. Industrial; sure.
- MBCook 9y ago
  Even in the industrial… I wonder. We've seen some of the stuff Microsoft talks about with hololens. The idea that it could be useful to some people in industrial/business settings. What if instead of needing a Hololens dev kit for $3k or waiting for a production version that will probably be at least $1k… you could get your application to work with the $350 iPad when the new OS comes out in September? Sure Hololens Will be better at some things, but that's a hell of a price difference and it will be available retail soon. By the time your app is ready for your workers to use iOS 11 will probably be out.

erikpukinskis 9y ago

> Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat Apple is doing very well for these applications, so again they're not behind. > Enterprise/industrial...This market is very small currently Exactly. > AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. Why are you so sure they will leave mobile? Wearables have three benefits: 1) hands-free, 2) immersive, 3) Stereo vision. None of those features have shown to be required for AR killer apps. So far the leading apps (Pokemon Go, SnapChat, etc) have not needed them. Do you have some reason to speculate that those specific benefits 1-3 will grow in importance? Hands-on/non-immersive is actually a feature in some ways, it allows the user more control over their degree of immersion. And head mounted overlay AR requires a massive increase in processing power in order to get acceptable latency. Latency doesn't matter as much for handheld passthrough AR. Lots of tradeoffs there, it's not clear to me HMDs are a win for consumer applications. Industrial; sure.

MBCook 9y ago
Even in the industrial… I wonder. We've seen some of the stuff Microsoft talks about with hololens. The idea that it could be useful to some people in industrial/business settings. What if instead of needing a Hololens dev kit for $3k or waiting for a production version that will probably be at least $1k… you could get your application to work with the $350 iPad when the new OS comes out in September? Sure Hololens Will be better at some things, but that's a hell of a price difference and it will be available retail soon. By the time your app is ready for your workers to use iOS 11 will probably be out.