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> In conclusion, Apple is . . . somewhat late to market . . . The best way for Apple to alleviate this jam is to release its own AR glasses/headset, which it is

> In conclusion, Apple is . . . somewhat late to market . . . The best way for Apple to alleviate this jam is to release its own AR glasses/headset, which it is widely rumored to be developing. I'm not sure this line of reasoning holds up. You mention 3 markets: 1. consumer 2. enterprise 3. the "market" for developer mindshare Apple doesn't especially care about being early or late to any of these markets. Let's take them one by one. 1. There is currently no real consumer market for AR, so Apple is not late. And I don't see any reason why Apple would not be content to wait and see if one develops. It's not clear how releasing an improved version of Google Glass saves Apple from any kind of "jam". People are not clamoring for this type of product, because its value is highly unclear. 2. There is currently no real enterprise market for AR, so Apple is not late. Apple has no history of making industrial equipment. Are you saying Apple is about to take the unusual step of starting a whole new sales channel, targeting a whole new class of buyers, to try to get first-mover advantage in a new and unproven market helping warehouse workers do line monitoring and "remote help"? It seems unlikely. 3. Apple has a huge, strong developer base it is in no danger of losing. Again, it's not clear how offering an AR SDK gets them out of a jam. If I had to guess as to why they are playing in this area, it may be to help seed the ground with more iOS devs familiar with this tech, so that in the event that the market does develop, they are in a good position to harvest ideas, talent, and apps.

roymurdock 9y ago
1. Consumer AR market - mobile phone AR-enabled applications - education/gaming/entertainment/enhanced retail. Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat would all beg to differ that this market does not exist. 2. Enterprise/industrial AR market - wearable AR-enabled applications - I've already listed them. This market is very small currently...but it exists. I've talked to engineers and AR tool vendors in this market, creating applications for Vuzix, Epson devices. My argument is that this portion of the market will see a lot of growth over the next 5 years. Hard to explain Microsoft's play with Hololens, or PTC's ThingWorx Studio tracking tech away. 3. They are in a jam with AR application developers specifically, not all developers as a whole. You're right they have a large, strong mobile developer base, but AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. They're playing in AR because they're looking for the new iPhone...a new form factor to deliver new applications and jump start sales. AR glasses could be that form factor if they can execute like Jobs did with the smartphone.
- erikpukinskis 9y ago
  > Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat Apple is doing very well for these applications, so again they're not behind. > Enterprise/industrial...This market is very small currently Exactly. > AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. Why are you so sure they will leave mobile? Wearables have three benefits: 1) hands-free, 2) immersive, 3) Stereo vision. None of those features have shown to be required for AR killer apps. So far the leading apps (Pokemon Go, SnapChat, etc) have not needed them. Do you have some reason to speculate that those specific benefits 1-3 will grow in importance? Hands-on/non-immersive is actually a feature in some ways, it allows the user more control over their degree of immersion. And head mounted overlay AR requires a massive increase in processing power in order to get acceptable latency. Latency doesn't matter as much for handheld passthrough AR. Lots of tradeoffs there, it's not clear to me HMDs are a win for consumer applications. Industrial; sure.
  - MBCook 9y ago
    Even in the industrial… I wonder. We've seen some of the stuff Microsoft talks about with hololens. The idea that it could be useful to some people in industrial/business settings. What if instead of needing a Hololens dev kit for $3k or waiting for a production version that will probably be at least $1k… you could get your application to work with the $350 iPad when the new OS comes out in September? Sure Hololens Will be better at some things, but that's a hell of a price difference and it will be available retail soon. By the time your app is ready for your workers to use iOS 11 will probably be out.

roymurdock 9y ago

1. Consumer AR market - mobile phone AR-enabled applications - education/gaming/entertainment/enhanced retail. Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat would all beg to differ that this market does not exist. 2. Enterprise/industrial AR market - wearable AR-enabled applications - I've already listed them. This market is very small currently...but it exists. I've talked to engineers and AR tool vendors in this market, creating applications for Vuzix, Epson devices. My argument is that this portion of the market will see a lot of growth over the next 5 years. Hard to explain Microsoft's play with Hololens, or PTC's ThingWorx Studio tracking tech away. 3. They are in a jam with AR application developers specifically, not all developers as a whole. You're right they have a large, strong mobile developer base, but AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. They're playing in AR because they're looking for the new iPhone...a new form factor to deliver new applications and jump start sales. AR glasses could be that form factor if they can execute like Jobs did with the smartphone.

erikpukinskis 9y ago
> Niantic, Blippar, Catchoom, Snapchat Apple is doing very well for these applications, so again they're not behind. > Enterprise/industrial...This market is very small currently Exactly. > AR developers will move away from mobile/tablet-focused platforms (iOS) to Android/Windows in order to develop for AR wearables. Why are you so sure they will leave mobile? Wearables have three benefits: 1) hands-free, 2) immersive, 3) Stereo vision. None of those features have shown to be required for AR killer apps. So far the leading apps (Pokemon Go, SnapChat, etc) have not needed them. Do you have some reason to speculate that those specific benefits 1-3 will grow in importance? Hands-on/non-immersive is actually a feature in some ways, it allows the user more control over their degree of immersion. And head mounted overlay AR requires a massive increase in processing power in order to get acceptable latency. Latency doesn't matter as much for handheld passthrough AR. Lots of tradeoffs there, it's not clear to me HMDs are a win for consumer applications. Industrial; sure.
- MBCook 9y ago
  Even in the industrial… I wonder. We've seen some of the stuff Microsoft talks about with hololens. The idea that it could be useful to some people in industrial/business settings. What if instead of needing a Hololens dev kit for $3k or waiting for a production version that will probably be at least $1k… you could get your application to work with the $350 iPad when the new OS comes out in September? Sure Hololens Will be better at some things, but that's a hell of a price difference and it will be available retail soon. By the time your app is ready for your workers to use iOS 11 will probably be out.