5 ms·

If you couldn't take present-day gadgets back with you, there's a good chance that you wouldn't get much payoff from your knowledge of the future. Say you're i

by karzeem 16y ago

If you couldn't take present-day gadgets back with you, there's a good chance that you wouldn't get much payoff from your knowledge of the future. Say you're in 1975 and know exactly how to build an iPhone. It simply wouldn't be possible to do. Technology tends to come into existence pretty soon after it becomes possible for it to exist. Right after an achievement becomes possible, there is a window (say, 2-3 years) where people compete to create the definitive implementation. But it's not certain that knowledge from the future would help you beat the others. It would probably help, but that advantage could easily be wiped out by the same things that wipe out any other technology project (bad hacking, bad management, etc.)

sambeau 16y ago
I find it fun to think back to the 1970s and try to guess which products would get bigger and which products would get smaller.. eg (UK-centric list, maybe): * TVs - they were supposed to get smaller, they're huge now * HiFi - bigger surely, and they did for a bit during the 1980s ("when you die they'll bury you in it") * Womens' cars - are now bigger than mens' cars by far * Men's underpant - bigger * Women's underpants - smaller etc
- tome 16y ago
  Men and women have different cars? Where is this? The US?
  - pbhjpbhj 16y ago
    I see this in a small sector of the rich middle classes here in the UK - a rich wife, often a mother, has a huge SUV for the school run whilst the husband has a town car for parking at the railway station or has a sales rep standard issue.
- nooneelse 16y ago
  Bradbury predicted much bigger TV's in the 1950's.
armandososa 16y ago
The best approach would be to write a book, comic book or novel "predicting" this stuff. In 30 years or so you'll be recognized as the most accomplished 'futurist' in the history. Oh I almost can hear the interviews: -- How did you managed to describe the exact interface of the iPhone more than 30 years before its release ? -- Well, I actually came from the future. -- LOL! Let's make sure you don't get anywhere near the LHC then.
- noonespecial 16y ago
  But futurists in no small part shape the future by writing about it. Those sci-fi fantasies we reveled in as children are what drives us to create technology today. I smell a paradox.
  - rbanffy 16y ago
    I saw it being called "Star Trek Effect". I think it's a very nice name.
- maushu 16y ago
  Futurists and predicting stuff always made me twitch. Seriously. Check out any old movies or series and you will see that any technology is either obsolete or so vague that it can't be built. Using this line of thinking I came to the algorithm necessary to predict the future with a higher chance of success: First Step: Do it like we always do, predict the future. Spaceships, gadgets and so on. Second Step: Now get in the shoes of someone from that "time" and do the first step again. You now have, what I believe, a good prediction. Using this simple algorithm I now think that any spaceship with a single forward view screen (eg: star trek) is plain silly and it would make more sense to have view screens in every face of the bridge (with holographic floating screen or something) to have more freedom.
mechanical_fish 16y ago
I've heard this argument made about a person time-traveling back to, say, the year 1000. You would be so cut off from the infrastructure you know and depend on, and so i'll-prepared for the alien culture you landed in, that your knowledge of the future would be useless. But 1975? That is taking it too far. I was alive in 1975! It was different from today, but not so different that you couldn't figure it out. Yeah, you might be hard pressed to build an iPhone. But do not underestimate the awesome power of hindsight. The great thing about hindsight is that you know which ideas are likely dead ends and which are likely to pay off. Just knowing, say, that mammalian cloning is physically possible would make it a lot easier to do. You know that if you keep trying the reward is out there. I think a lot of web technology could have been built earlier if people had only known it was worth building.
- rbanffy 16y ago
  > I think a lot of web technology could have been built earlier if people had only known it was worth building. Well... The web browser was there in the 70's - we called it the 3278. Now, on a more serious tone, in computing we see the worst solution gaining share over better ones on a regular basis. It's only a half-joke when I say Smalltalk 80 beats Java (or C#) 2010...
- seldo 16y ago
  The solution is to take a modern-day invention that isn't that complicated technically -- a lot of fad items fit the bill. Would the snuggie have sold as well in 1975? How about crocs?
  - jbm 16y ago
    In regards to Crocs, wasn't plastic prohibitively expensive until the late 80s?
    - jbm 16y ago
      I'm not quite sure why I'm being modded down. One of the reasons I mentioned that is that toys from the early 80s avoided the use of Plastic as it was a cost center. Are crocs not made out of some kind of plastic compound? Or is it because the plastic is easily replaceable, and people are referring to the form factor?
phreeza 16y ago
I think the problem here is that these are mostly incremental improvements of things that were already around in 1977, at a fundamental technical level. It wouldn't be so hard to "invent" the transistor in 1900, for example. But the transistor, the thing that makes most of these gadgets possible, was already around in 1975, its only that people have gotten so damn good at making them by now. This happens through a long series of small improvements. Same would go for other tech... Not so difficult to build a battery or a steam engine in any age really, but making it highly efficient as we know it now, different story.
Vivtek 16y ago
I dunno, the idea of open-source software and good interpreted languages would get you pretty far. I wouldn't mind being Larry Wall - and I'll bet at this point I could re-implement Perl from memory pretty well. A decent knowledge of things like unit testing could also make you pretty damned effective in the then-burgeoning market of custom software. You might be able to pull a Google or a Netscape with a small team you hired from your consulting profits. With a decent knowledge of what tech was coming down the pike next year or so, I'm pretty sure you could do pretty well any time back to 1975 or so. Beyond that, I'd need research, because I didn't live through it - but if you know which year you're going for, check the patent database for anything invented about five years later than your target. That takes you back to the 1700's. Further back than that, you're talking about agriculture (crop rotation, for instance) or stirrups or something. Give me a target year and six months of prep time, and I'm virtually positive I could put together a killer business plan that would leave me or at least my children owning the world.
- bitwize 16y ago
  > I dunno, the idea of open-source software and good interpreted languages would get you pretty far. Hey -- go back to 1975 and out-Stallman Stallman. Then when a crafty dork fresh dropped out of Harvard comes along with a cranky letter -- you do realize that you are stealing software, don't you? -- he would have gotten what he deserves: a fuck you and the mother of all wedgies.
arethuza 16y ago
Surely being a patent troll is the ideal business model for a time traveler? No need to go to the bother of actually selling any products, just patent things you know will be wildly successful, wait until the right time and then unleash your lawyers.
ugh 16y ago
You might not be able to change the world but time travel can certainly make you rich. Just buy some stock from Intel, Microsoft, Google and Apple.

by karzeem 16y ago

sambeau 16y ago

I find it fun to think back to the 1970s and try to guess which products would get bigger and which products would get smaller.. eg (UK-centric list, maybe): * TVs - they were supposed to get smaller, they're huge now * HiFi - bigger surely, and they did for a bit during the 1980s ("when you die they'll bury you in it") * Womens' cars - are now bigger than mens' cars by far * Men's underpant - bigger * Women's underpants - smaller etc

tome 16y ago
Men and women have different cars? Where is this? The US?
- pbhjpbhj 16y ago
  I see this in a small sector of the rich middle classes here in the UK - a rich wife, often a mother, has a huge SUV for the school run whilst the husband has a town car for parking at the railway station or has a sales rep standard issue.
nooneelse 16y ago
Bradbury predicted much bigger TV's in the 1950's.

armandososa 16y ago

The best approach would be to write a book, comic book or novel "predicting" this stuff. In 30 years or so you'll be recognized as the most accomplished 'futurist' in the history. Oh I almost can hear the interviews: -- How did you managed to describe the exact interface of the iPhone more than 30 years before its release ? -- Well, I actually came from the future. -- LOL! Let's make sure you don't get anywhere near the LHC then.

noonespecial 16y ago
But futurists in no small part shape the future by writing about it. Those sci-fi fantasies we reveled in as children are what drives us to create technology today. I smell a paradox.
- rbanffy 16y ago
  I saw it being called "Star Trek Effect". I think it's a very nice name.
maushu 16y ago
Futurists and predicting stuff always made me twitch. Seriously. Check out any old movies or series and you will see that any technology is either obsolete or so vague that it can't be built. Using this line of thinking I came to the algorithm necessary to predict the future with a higher chance of success: First Step: Do it like we always do, predict the future. Spaceships, gadgets and so on. Second Step: Now get in the shoes of someone from that "time" and do the first step again. You now have, what I believe, a good prediction. Using this simple algorithm I now think that any spaceship with a single forward view screen (eg: star trek) is plain silly and it would make more sense to have view screens in every face of the bridge (with holographic floating screen or something) to have more freedom.

mechanical_fish 16y ago

I've heard this argument made about a person time-traveling back to, say, the year 1000. You would be so cut off from the infrastructure you know and depend on, and so i'll-prepared for the alien culture you landed in, that your knowledge of the future would be useless. But 1975? That is taking it too far. I was alive in 1975! It was different from today, but not so different that you couldn't figure it out. Yeah, you might be hard pressed to build an iPhone. But do not underestimate the awesome power of hindsight. The great thing about hindsight is that you know which ideas are likely dead ends and which are likely to pay off. Just knowing, say, that mammalian cloning is physically possible would make it a lot easier to do. You know that if you keep trying the reward is out there. I think a lot of web technology could have been built earlier if people had only known it was worth building.

rbanffy 16y ago
> I think a lot of web technology could have been built earlier if people had only known it was worth building. Well... The web browser was there in the 70's - we called it the 3278. Now, on a more serious tone, in computing we see the worst solution gaining share over better ones on a regular basis. It's only a half-joke when I say Smalltalk 80 beats Java (or C#) 2010...
seldo 16y ago
The solution is to take a modern-day invention that isn't that complicated technically -- a lot of fad items fit the bill. Would the snuggie have sold as well in 1975? How about crocs?
- jbm 16y ago
  In regards to Crocs, wasn't plastic prohibitively expensive until the late 80s?
  - jbm 16y ago
    I'm not quite sure why I'm being modded down. One of the reasons I mentioned that is that toys from the early 80s avoided the use of Plastic as it was a cost center. Are crocs not made out of some kind of plastic compound? Or is it because the plastic is easily replaceable, and people are referring to the form factor?

phreeza 16y ago

I think the problem here is that these are mostly incremental improvements of things that were already around in 1977, at a fundamental technical level. It wouldn't be so hard to "invent" the transistor in 1900, for example. But the transistor, the thing that makes most of these gadgets possible, was already around in 1975, its only that people have gotten so damn good at making them by now. This happens through a long series of small improvements. Same would go for other tech... Not so difficult to build a battery or a steam engine in any age really, but making it highly efficient as we know it now, different story.

Vivtek 16y ago

I dunno, the idea of open-source software and good interpreted languages would get you pretty far. I wouldn't mind being Larry Wall - and I'll bet at this point I could re-implement Perl from memory pretty well. A decent knowledge of things like unit testing could also make you pretty damned effective in the then-burgeoning market of custom software. You might be able to pull a Google or a Netscape with a small team you hired from your consulting profits. With a decent knowledge of what tech was coming down the pike next year or so, I'm pretty sure you could do pretty well any time back to 1975 or so. Beyond that, I'd need research, because I didn't live through it - but if you know which year you're going for, check the patent database for anything invented about five years later than your target. That takes you back to the 1700's. Further back than that, you're talking about agriculture (crop rotation, for instance) or stirrups or something. Give me a target year and six months of prep time, and I'm virtually positive I could put together a killer business plan that would leave me or at least my children owning the world.

bitwize 16y ago
> I dunno, the idea of open-source software and good interpreted languages would get you pretty far. Hey -- go back to 1975 and out-Stallman Stallman. Then when a crafty dork fresh dropped out of Harvard comes along with a cranky letter -- you do realize that you are stealing software, don't you? -- he would have gotten what he deserves: a fuck you and the mother of all wedgies.

arethuza 16y ago

Surely being a patent troll is the ideal business model for a time traveler? No need to go to the bother of actually selling any products, just patent things you know will be wildly successful, wait until the right time and then unleash your lawyers.

ugh 16y ago

You might not be able to change the world but time travel can certainly make you rich. Just buy some stock from Intel, Microsoft, Google and Apple.