You have to make bold (and often later false) predictions to get peoples' attention. Nobody pays attention to "scientists predict that there is a 10% chance of

You have to make bold (and often later false) predictions to get peoples' attention. Nobody pays attention to "scientists predict that there is a 10% chance of X in 20 years, a 25% chance in 50 years, and a 50% chance in 100 years" type stuff even if X is something really bad. To get the media and the average busy person to pay attention, it must be an emergency. It must be a crisis. But... it's a catch-22. When you make those kinds of bold, sensational predictions you lose the thinking people who pay attention. They'll notice that your prediction is unlikely and later turns out to be false. They'll make a note of it and never listen to you again. Some day we will really run out of certain fossil fuels, and if we haven't made them obsolete by then we are in big trouble. Some day if we keep dumping CO2 and methane into the atmosphere we will trigger some kind of runaway climate effect with potentially disastrous consequences. We also may trigger something like an ocean anoxic event. When will these things happen? Nobody knows, but it could be within our lifetimes (especially with life extension maybe coming) and it's even more likely within our childrens' lifetimes. "Why didn't anyone say something!?!?" They did, but they did too early and in the wrong way. But if they'd said it calmly and rationally nobody would have paid attention either. P.S. I personally find ocean acidification far scarier than climate change. We can move cities a lot easier than we can figure out how to survive without the oceans.