8 ms·

> fundamentally I wonder if the housing supply could even be increased enough to materially affect housing prices. Yes, it can; SF built 5,000 units last year,

> fundamentally I wonder if the housing supply could even be increased enough to materially affect housing prices. Yes, it can; SF built 5,000 units last year, a record, and rents and owner move-in evictions finally declined. At the very least, building more housing can prevent further large price rises. > BTW this is what's happening here in Portland OR, where a building boom has been going on for years. The area population has increased, housing prices are still out of range for many people. The question is what would happen if you didn't build the housing. I contend that the people moving in would outbid everyone for the existing housing stock, which would drive rent increases even more than rents are currently going up. It may be that the new housing is just keeping things at a base level. Flipped on its head the logic here doesn't really make sense; destroying existing housing stock would be disastrous for rents and prices, it makes sense that building more would help prevent increases.

jrapdx3 9y ago
You might be right, possibly housing prices could be higher. If in fact prices have stabilized or leveled out (it's sure hard to get up to date info of that kind), it suggests there's an equilibrium between increasing population and housing availability. The more housing the higher the population will go for any particular average housing price point. Simplistically, price = population/amount of housing. I think an issue is building new housing attracts an influx of population up to the point that housing is not too expensive, keeping the average price point about the same. Conversely, outflux of population would cause prices to plummet, which has happened in the past during recessions and high unemployment. In effect, housing stocks then are reduced by being removed from the market, but that's not exactly healthy for the community either. > I contend that the people moving in would outbid everyone for the existing housing stock, which would drive rent increases even more than rents are currently going up. That's possible, but unless people moving in are much wealthier than the people already there, the price could only rise a certain amount before no one could afford it and sales would fall off. That's similar to certain (expensive) condo prices around here, but still seems there's a ceiling effect. Your comment inspires me to talk with some real estate folks I know, it's been a while since getting their perspective on the market.
- falsedan 9y ago
  > building new housing attracts an influx of population You got this backwards: we build housing for the influx of population. People don't move to new places just to get a new house. They move for economic reasons, like they got a $150k software dev job in SF & don't want to commute 90 minutes each way, or they got evicted so the landlord could double/triple the rent. Regardless of whether SF builds now housing stock or not, the population influx is already happening and has been happening for the last 10 years. The issue is, new, wealthier residents are pulling the market up and forcing existing, lower-income residents out to the periphery of the Bay Area.
  - chii 9y ago
    > forcing existing, lower-income residents out to the periphery of the Bay Area. but this should drive those who receive low income out of state, and thus lower the amount of worker available for low-income jobs, which in turn should drive up the wage?
    - falsedan 9y ago
      California is big, and moving costs can trap people in places they can barely afford. Fronting up the $600 to rent a U-Haul & take it to Nebraska can be a mammoth challenge. Plus, they need a job at the other end. It's more likely that they would move to unregulated housing or live on the streets.
      - corvallis 9y ago
        Please check your comment about BART schedules. BART guarantees a ride to your destination from any point in the system if you get into a station by midnight. The last train from Embarcadero station to Pittsburg leaves Embarcadero at 12:26 AM.
        falsedan 9y ago
        I don't fancy getting home at 2am.
timthelion 9y ago
In eastern europe, we have Paneláky <https://www.google.cz/search?q=sidli%C5%A1t%C4%9B&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjf0YbVhYPUAhVLiCwKHQXjBzAQ_AUICigB&biw=1709&bih=980#tbm=isch&q=panel%C3%A1ky> https://www.google.cz/search?q=sidli%C5%A1t%C4%9B&source=lnm... and the housing prices are low in the panel houses and much higher everywhere else (though no-where nere US levels). You can even buy an apartment in a panel house an hour and a halfs drive outside of prague for $5000USD https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,liberecky-kraj,kralovehradecky-kraj,karlovarsky-kraj,plzensky-kraj,jihocesky-kraj,vysocina-kraj,pardubicky-kraj?cena-od=0&cena-do=120000 https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib...
- literallycancer 9y ago
  I suspect that people aren't talking about 1.5 hour one way commute when they say that rents are too high.
- mattmanser 9y ago
  In Europe and the US a lot of these were built too. A lot of them are now being torn down. I'm not an authority on why, but I believe they tended to be crime and drug hot spots. I have also read of various health problems being associated with them (both physical + mental).
  - zaccus 9y ago
    Buildings like that in the US tend to be housing projects, where people are less likely to have a sense of ownership. Not exactly apples to apples.
    - timthelion 9y ago
      There was also a technical issue, caused by the fact that in the US, many of the buildings had windows which could not be opened. People didn't like that.
- expertentipp 9y ago
  > panel house an hour and a halfs drive outside of prague for $5000USD https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib.. https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib.... From the photos alone I can smell the odor of alcohol and feel the depression and suicide looming in the air.

jrapdx3 9y ago

You might be right, possibly housing prices could be higher. If in fact prices have stabilized or leveled out (it's sure hard to get up to date info of that kind), it suggests there's an equilibrium between increasing population and housing availability. The more housing the higher the population will go for any particular average housing price point. Simplistically, price = population/amount of housing. I think an issue is building new housing attracts an influx of population up to the point that housing is not too expensive, keeping the average price point about the same. Conversely, outflux of population would cause prices to plummet, which has happened in the past during recessions and high unemployment. In effect, housing stocks then are reduced by being removed from the market, but that's not exactly healthy for the community either. > I contend that the people moving in would outbid everyone for the existing housing stock, which would drive rent increases even more than rents are currently going up. That's possible, but unless people moving in are much wealthier than the people already there, the price could only rise a certain amount before no one could afford it and sales would fall off. That's similar to certain (expensive) condo prices around here, but still seems there's a ceiling effect. Your comment inspires me to talk with some real estate folks I know, it's been a while since getting their perspective on the market.

falsedan 9y ago
> building new housing attracts an influx of population You got this backwards: we build housing for the influx of population. People don't move to new places just to get a new house. They move for economic reasons, like they got a $150k software dev job in SF & don't want to commute 90 minutes each way, or they got evicted so the landlord could double/triple the rent. Regardless of whether SF builds now housing stock or not, the population influx is already happening and has been happening for the last 10 years. The issue is, new, wealthier residents are pulling the market up and forcing existing, lower-income residents out to the periphery of the Bay Area.
- chii 9y ago
  > forcing existing, lower-income residents out to the periphery of the Bay Area. but this should drive those who receive low income out of state, and thus lower the amount of worker available for low-income jobs, which in turn should drive up the wage?
  - falsedan 9y ago
    California is big, and moving costs can trap people in places they can barely afford. Fronting up the $600 to rent a U-Haul & take it to Nebraska can be a mammoth challenge. Plus, they need a job at the other end. It's more likely that they would move to unregulated housing or live on the streets.
    - corvallis 9y ago
      Please check your comment about BART schedules. BART guarantees a ride to your destination from any point in the system if you get into a station by midnight. The last train from Embarcadero station to Pittsburg leaves Embarcadero at 12:26 AM.
      - falsedan 9y ago
        I don't fancy getting home at 2am.

timthelion 9y ago

In eastern europe, we have Paneláky <https://www.google.cz/search?q=sidli%C5%A1t%C4%9B&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjf0YbVhYPUAhVLiCwKHQXjBzAQ_AUICigB&biw=1709&bih=980#tbm=isch&q=panel%C3%A1ky> https://www.google.cz/search?q=sidli%C5%A1t%C4%9B&source=lnm... and the housing prices are low in the panel houses and much higher everywhere else (though no-where nere US levels). You can even buy an apartment in a panel house an hour and a halfs drive outside of prague for $5000USD https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,liberecky-kraj,kralovehradecky-kraj,karlovarsky-kraj,plzensky-kraj,jihocesky-kraj,vysocina-kraj,pardubicky-kraj?cena-od=0&cena-do=120000 https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib...

literallycancer 9y ago
I suspect that people aren't talking about 1.5 hour one way commute when they say that rents are too high.
mattmanser 9y ago
In Europe and the US a lot of these were built too. A lot of them are now being torn down. I'm not an authority on why, but I believe they tended to be crime and drug hot spots. I have also read of various health problems being associated with them (both physical + mental).
- zaccus 9y ago
  Buildings like that in the US tend to be housing projects, where people are less likely to have a sense of ownership. Not exactly apples to apples.
  - timthelion 9y ago
    There was also a technical issue, caused by the fact that in the US, many of the buildings had windows which could not be opened. People didn't like that.
expertentipp 9y ago
> panel house an hour and a halfs drive outside of prague for $5000USD https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib.. https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib.... From the photos alone I can smell the odor of alcohol and feel the depression and suicide looming in the air.