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This is a huge precursor to the real blow: "The decision hints that Alsup’s pending decision on a preliminary injunction might not be favorable to Uber. . . it

This is a huge precursor to the real blow: "The decision hints that Alsup’s pending decision on a preliminary injunction might not be favorable to Uber. . . it could effectively halt Uber’s self driving development plans entirely while the trial plays out." In context of Travis' view "What would happen if we weren't a part of that future? If we weren't part of the autonomy thing? Then the future passes us by basically, in a very expeditious and efficient way," he said." (1) (1) https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/travis-...

cheeze 9y ago
Non AMP version of your link: http://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 http://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-...
- jameskegel 9y ago
  Thank you
sjg007 9y ago
Maybe. People still need an income. That can keep uber drivers around for a bit. Also self driving cars may take 10-15 years to actuate reliably.
- zitterbewegung 9y ago
  So while that happens Lyft could eat their lunch (and Waymo could help them).
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - sjg007 9y ago
    I thought google invested in uber..?
    - gleenn 9y ago
      I believe Google Ventures did, but that's not exactly the same entity.
      - MaxfordAndSons 9y ago
        Yes, they invested $250m at a $3.5bn valuation, estimated to be 2-7% ownership currently[1]. Makes me wonder: if Uber is found liable for a huge amount that would bankrupt them, could there be a situation where Waymo absorbs Uber as a post-trial settlement rather than Uber being liquidated? [1]https://www.recode.net/2015/12/6/11621176/google-ventures-owns-part-of-several-unicorns-but-the-biggest-and https://www.recode.net/2015/12/6/11621176/google-ventures-ow...
        hooch 9y ago
        With Levandowski remaining an agent of Google/Waymo all along?
        RugnirViking 9y ago
        That would be quite the amazing turn of events.
        woadwarrior01 9y ago
        That's rather reminiscent of Stephen Elop and Nokia.
        theduncan 9y ago
        I don't think so, Levandowski would be up on criminal charges or pleaded guilty to get a lesser sentence. Either way if if there is any truth in it, no one is going to hire the guy ever again. read up on Sergey Aleynikov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov and there was no malice in that one.
- kjksf 9y ago
  More like 2-5. Elon Musk publicly said Tesla is 2 years away from full autonomy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8). Chris Urmson (who was CTO of self-driving cars at google in 2009-2016) said it's 5 years (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtgBySRrN0Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtgBySRrN0Q). Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there.
  - tmh79 9y ago
    Its complicated from ubers perspective though. Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". How long until autonomy becomes that reliable? Thinking specifically about: Weather, Supply shocks (morning/evening rush hour, concerts, professional sports games, parades)
    - amluto 9y ago
      > Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". Running water is very reliable. AWS can't keep a reliability zone working that reliably, and that's a rather easier problem than transportation.
    - icebraining 9y ago
      Thing is, they don't have to rely 100% on autonomy. They can start introducing autonomous cars, in competition with human drivers, and adjust that number dynamically on an hourly basis. With the higher profits of those rides, they could even pay the human drivers more during those "supply shocks", as a kind of self-funded surge pricing, to fill up those gaps.
  - objclxt 9y ago
    > Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there. I think you're very optimistic. Bear in mind that Musk often over-promises on timelines (for instance, he said the new in-house autopilot in the Model S would have parity with the old outsourced one by the end of 2016, it still doesn't), and it will take sometime to regulate and legislate a whole new set of laws and structures around self driving (especially around matters of liability in the case of accidents). I can imagine in 2 years we see more complex and intelligent implementations available for the general public that can manage route mapping and full autonomy in an ideal situation (you'd better hope its not snowing), but where drivers are still required to be present and have their hands on or near the wheel at all times.
jcsnv 9y ago
What can Uber do if they lose?
- amaks 9y ago
  Food delivery business?
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    Because who needs health & safety regulations.
  - jacksontrebe 9y ago
    Not very likely considering Postmates has the majority of the market.
    - gautamnarula 9y ago
      Does it? There's a lot of competition in food delivery: Postmates, UberEATS, Caviar, DoorDash, Delivery.com, Grubhub/Seamless, and a few days ago I just heard of another one, EatStreet.
  - a3n 9y ago
    Pet food delivery business?
- devrandomguy 9y ago
  They could become business consultants, for businesses that operate in regions with minimal human rights protections :(
- memmcgee 9y ago
  Hope Google buys them for a tenth of what they're worth now.
- Qwertious 9y ago
  Liquidate.
devrandomguy 9y ago
What happens if Uber just pleads guilty, in order to get back to work ASAP? They lose important patents. And then, the victor is obligated by patent law to license patents at a reasonable price, by some unknown definition of reasonable? It looks to me like Uber could take another PR hit, burn a $billion or more on the fallout, raise more billions, and keep on going. Have ethically motivated boycotts ever worked out, historically?
- ajdlinux 9y ago
  Isn't this a trade secrets case, not a patent case?
  - devrandomguy 9y ago
    It is both. What happens if they admit to stealing trade secrets, and clearly intend to continue to compete in the market? Could the judge literally kick them out of the industry, or force the company to disband by labeling it an illegal organization?
    - ajdlinux 9y ago
      I imagine injunctive relief is an option for Waymo that could limit Uber's options for some time.
    - stale2002 9y ago
      OK, it is not THAT bad. The very worst worst case scenario is that Uber would be barred from using rotating, parabolic, Lidars. But there are a lot of other ways of making self driving cars that don't use this specific method of sensor technology. Uber could even just come to an agreement with Google, and license the technology.
      - memmcgee 9y ago
        It very much looks like Uber did this premeditated and that Travis and the Otto guy planned this while he was still at Google. It is VERY bad for Uber and they could get hit with much worse than just being banned from using a specific technology. The judge has already referred the case to the USA's office for possible criminal charges. Maybe we'll actually see an executive thrown in jail for once.
bradleyjg 9y ago
The request for preliminary injunction, available here: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3515651-Waymo-Motion-for-Preliminary-Injunction.html https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3515651-Waymo-Motion... only has to do with LiDAR. I'm far from an expert on the self driving car race, but I think even if Uber had to abandon LiDAR altogether it wouldn't mean it would be impossible to approach the problem in a different way. And it isn't clear that if the injunction were granted they'd have to abandon LiDAR altogether -- it may be that they could try a slightly different approach and/or develop a second firewalled team from the one tainted by Lewandowski. It would surely be painful but I don't see why it would mean shutting down the self driving car project.
- ModernMech 9y ago
  If you think about it, the only sensor you need is a camera. Humans control cars with just their eyes as sensors. Our brains just possess superior perception. Maybe if uber pushed the boundaries of computer vision, they could make progress toward vehicles with simpler sensor suites.
  - booleanbetrayal 9y ago
    "Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that's very effective for road conditions." - Elon Musk, latest TED (https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_building_and_boring/transcript?language=en https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_buildin...)
    - maxerickson 9y ago
      I'd love a really well implemented augmented reality windshield though, one that added sensor data to my field of view. Imagine being able to see heat signatures at night, or through obstructions.
elmar 9y ago
probably now Uber will focus more on the Uber Elevate project http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-qa-moore-20170511-htmlstory.html http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-qa-moore-20170511-html...

cheeze 9y ago

Non AMP version of your link: http://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 http://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-...

jameskegel 9y ago
Thank you

sjg007 9y ago

Maybe. People still need an income. That can keep uber drivers around for a bit. Also self driving cars may take 10-15 years to actuate reliably.

zitterbewegung 9y ago
So while that happens Lyft could eat their lunch (and Waymo could help them).
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- sjg007 9y ago
  I thought google invested in uber..?
  - gleenn 9y ago
    I believe Google Ventures did, but that's not exactly the same entity.
    - MaxfordAndSons 9y ago
      Yes, they invested $250m at a $3.5bn valuation, estimated to be 2-7% ownership currently[1]. Makes me wonder: if Uber is found liable for a huge amount that would bankrupt them, could there be a situation where Waymo absorbs Uber as a post-trial settlement rather than Uber being liquidated? [1]https://www.recode.net/2015/12/6/11621176/google-ventures-owns-part-of-several-unicorns-but-the-biggest-and https://www.recode.net/2015/12/6/11621176/google-ventures-ow...
      - hooch 9y ago
        With Levandowski remaining an agent of Google/Waymo all along?
        RugnirViking 9y ago
        That would be quite the amazing turn of events.
        woadwarrior01 9y ago
        That's rather reminiscent of Stephen Elop and Nokia.
        theduncan 9y ago
        I don't think so, Levandowski would be up on criminal charges or pleaded guilty to get a lesser sentence. Either way if if there is any truth in it, no one is going to hire the guy ever again. read up on Sergey Aleynikov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov and there was no malice in that one.
kjksf 9y ago
More like 2-5. Elon Musk publicly said Tesla is 2 years away from full autonomy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8). Chris Urmson (who was CTO of self-driving cars at google in 2009-2016) said it's 5 years (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtgBySRrN0Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtgBySRrN0Q). Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there.
- tmh79 9y ago
  Its complicated from ubers perspective though. Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". How long until autonomy becomes that reliable? Thinking specifically about: Weather, Supply shocks (morning/evening rush hour, concerts, professional sports games, parades)
  - amluto 9y ago
    > Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". Running water is very reliable. AWS can't keep a reliability zone working that reliably, and that's a rather easier problem than transportation.
  - icebraining 9y ago
    Thing is, they don't have to rely 100% on autonomy. They can start introducing autonomous cars, in competition with human drivers, and adjust that number dynamically on an hourly basis. With the higher profits of those rides, they could even pay the human drivers more during those "supply shocks", as a kind of self-funded surge pricing, to fill up those gaps.
- objclxt 9y ago
  > Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there. I think you're very optimistic. Bear in mind that Musk often over-promises on timelines (for instance, he said the new in-house autopilot in the Model S would have parity with the old outsourced one by the end of 2016, it still doesn't), and it will take sometime to regulate and legislate a whole new set of laws and structures around self driving (especially around matters of liability in the case of accidents). I can imagine in 2 years we see more complex and intelligent implementations available for the general public that can manage route mapping and full autonomy in an ideal situation (you'd better hope its not snowing), but where drivers are still required to be present and have their hands on or near the wheel at all times.

jcsnv 9y ago

What can Uber do if they lose?

amaks 9y ago
Food delivery business?
- TeMPOraL 9y ago
  Because who needs health & safety regulations.
- jacksontrebe 9y ago
  Not very likely considering Postmates has the majority of the market.
  - gautamnarula 9y ago
    Does it? There's a lot of competition in food delivery: Postmates, UberEATS, Caviar, DoorDash, Delivery.com, Grubhub/Seamless, and a few days ago I just heard of another one, EatStreet.
- a3n 9y ago
  Pet food delivery business?
devrandomguy 9y ago
They could become business consultants, for businesses that operate in regions with minimal human rights protections :(
memmcgee 9y ago
Hope Google buys them for a tenth of what they're worth now.
Qwertious 9y ago
Liquidate.

devrandomguy 9y ago

What happens if Uber just pleads guilty, in order to get back to work ASAP? They lose important patents. And then, the victor is obligated by patent law to license patents at a reasonable price, by some unknown definition of reasonable? It looks to me like Uber could take another PR hit, burn a $billion or more on the fallout, raise more billions, and keep on going. Have ethically motivated boycotts ever worked out, historically?

ajdlinux 9y ago
Isn't this a trade secrets case, not a patent case?
- devrandomguy 9y ago
  It is both. What happens if they admit to stealing trade secrets, and clearly intend to continue to compete in the market? Could the judge literally kick them out of the industry, or force the company to disband by labeling it an illegal organization?
  - ajdlinux 9y ago
    I imagine injunctive relief is an option for Waymo that could limit Uber's options for some time.
  - stale2002 9y ago
    OK, it is not THAT bad. The very worst worst case scenario is that Uber would be barred from using rotating, parabolic, Lidars. But there are a lot of other ways of making self driving cars that don't use this specific method of sensor technology. Uber could even just come to an agreement with Google, and license the technology.
    - memmcgee 9y ago
      It very much looks like Uber did this premeditated and that Travis and the Otto guy planned this while he was still at Google. It is VERY bad for Uber and they could get hit with much worse than just being banned from using a specific technology. The judge has already referred the case to the USA's office for possible criminal charges. Maybe we'll actually see an executive thrown in jail for once.

bradleyjg 9y ago

The request for preliminary injunction, available here: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3515651-Waymo-Motion-for-Preliminary-Injunction.html https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3515651-Waymo-Motion... only has to do with LiDAR. I'm far from an expert on the self driving car race, but I think even if Uber had to abandon LiDAR altogether it wouldn't mean it would be impossible to approach the problem in a different way. And it isn't clear that if the injunction were granted they'd have to abandon LiDAR altogether -- it may be that they could try a slightly different approach and/or develop a second firewalled team from the one tainted by Lewandowski. It would surely be painful but I don't see why it would mean shutting down the self driving car project.

ModernMech 9y ago
If you think about it, the only sensor you need is a camera. Humans control cars with just their eyes as sensors. Our brains just possess superior perception. Maybe if uber pushed the boundaries of computer vision, they could make progress toward vehicles with simpler sensor suites.
- booleanbetrayal 9y ago
  "Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that's very effective for road conditions." - Elon Musk, latest TED (https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_building_and_boring/transcript?language=en https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_buildin...)
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    I'd love a really well implemented augmented reality windshield though, one that added sensor data to my field of view. Imagine being able to see heat signatures at night, or through obstructions.

elmar 9y ago

probably now Uber will focus more on the Uber Elevate project http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-qa-moore-20170511-htmlstory.html http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-qa-moore-20170511-html...