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And when china achieve scale on something with good quality - game over man, game over. Why do you think that will happen? The chinese labour force is rapidly

And when china achieve scale on something with good quality - game over man, game over. Why do you think that will happen? The chinese labour force is rapidly shrinking, lower end manufacturing is starting to move south, and they've just figured out ball point pens. I don't see a bright future for them at all.

bigger_cheese 9y ago
I think it's the circle of capitalism. Western manufacturing industry basically said we can't compete on bulk products so we will focus on the specialized 'value add' part of the supply chain and let China produce bulk low margin products. In 10-15 years time there is nothing to say Chinese manufacturing won't capitulate to $Next_Developing_economy in the same manner and surrender their bulk manufacturing dominance in favor of moving up the chain. Edit. I should add the interesting part of all this is Patents - imagine if ball point pen tips were a patented design...
- lacampbell 9y ago
  I doubt the capability of china to be able to move up the chain. I mean they just figured out ball point pens... it's too little too late. I think china struggles because it's only semi capitalist and still has too many relics of a planned economy.
  - yadongwen 9y ago
    Have you read the article? It's not the pen. It's high quality steel. I think most countries probably still cannot do it now. China just successfully flew a big plane a few days ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919) and could automate package delivery like this https://twitter.com/kerotto/status/851055016928460800 https://twitter.com/kerotto/status/851055016928460800 There are many important areas where it has already been the leader of world (high speed trains, consumer software apps, etc)
    - lacampbell 9y ago
      China has built passenger airlines many times before, none of them have ever taken off in international markets. When the C919 is used regularly outside China I'll take note. How is China the leader of the world in high speed trains? They're all based off of designs from Japan and Germany. China is only the leader in consumer software apps inside of China, and only then because it outright bans foreign competition. The fact is China is the worlds most populous country but leads the world in absolutely nothing. And please be clear - this is not a criticism of the Chinese people - of course they have the capacity. But central planning and top down directives will never lead to world beating results.
      - tchaffee 9y ago
        Leads the world in absolutely nothing... #1 manufacturer in the world.
        myrandomcomment 9y ago
        So? The labor was cheap. And the rules were, shall we say flexible. The US was number one. The rules came, the cost went up and it moved. Look at my other post. One of the startups I worked at moved out of China because of the cost got to high. Its a cycle. As they become more open, more western and more regulated it will change again.
        tchaffee 9y ago
        Parent post claims China leads the world in nothing. Which is clearly wrong. No need to go beyond that.
        myrandomcomment 9y ago
        Reply was to: tchaffee 2 hours ago [-] "Leads the world in absolutely nothing... #1 manufacturer in the world." Which was correct. I think you got it wrong.
gumby 9y ago
"Game over?" People around the world will have cheaper, high quality products. Is that bad? Europe didn't suffer when Lowell stole the loom plans in the 1800s or when they bought a lot of gear from the US following WWII. And don't forget as China grows and labor costs rise there will still be plenty of lower-wage places like Burma, Viet Nam, much of Africa..."game" still in progress. Trade is only zero sum if you have a zero sum mentality. If you have $400 in your pocket and would rather have an iPhone, and Apple has an iPhone and would rather have $400 do you really think that one of you was taken advantage of if you swap? Both are happier.
- lacampbell 9y ago
  I think you meant to reply to the parent, not me.
  - gumby 9y ago
    oops, thanks.
nopinsight 9y ago
The expertise and supply chains for mass scale manufacturing are in China. There are many products that can't be economically manufactured almost anywhere else. They graduate many high quality engineers and researchers and they spend a huge sum on R&D annually (more than many developed nations with/without PPP adjustment). They are addressing labor shortage with robots. China's R&D budget is 2nd in the world (only behind the US and ahead of the EU) when PPP adjusted: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending?wprov=sfla1 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_researc... "In the five-year plan it announced last year, the national government said China would boost its annual production of industrial robots to 100,000 by 2020. At the current rate, the country is on track to exceed that target, assuming the numbers from the statistics bureau can be trusted—not a given in China (the bureau did not respond to questions Quartz sent by email). Meanwhile, over 3,000 industrial robot makers have surfaced in the country in the past five years, according to the China Robot Industry Alliance, a trade group. China is already the world’s largest producer of industrial robots, supplying about 27% of the global market since 2015, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). It’s also the largest buyer of robots. According to the IFR and Bernstein Research, China’s factories spent over $3 billion acquiring industrial robots in 2015." https://qz.com/922742/china-is-rapidly-making-robots-that-will-one-day-manufacture-everything-you-buy/ https://qz.com/922742/china-is-rapidly-making-robots-that-wi...
- myrandomcomment 9y ago
  There are some companies that are moving out of China because of large increase of cost of manufacturing and a decline in the quality of the talent. A startup I was at started in San Jose for prototypes, China for production for a few years then moved to Penang, Malaysia. It was a very high tech product with a large supply chain. Also, there have been a few stories in the past year on HN discussing the quality of engineers that the Chinese education system is turning out. The contract manufactures in China like Flextronics and Jabil have locations outside of China now and are expanding them. Heck from this map - Jabil has more outside of China: http://www.jabil.com/locations/ http://www.jabil.com/locations/
panzer_wyrm 9y ago
The china presumed missing 200000000 girls killed during the one child policy, seem to be alive and well - they were just hidden from the records IIRC. So china may have more labor than official statistics say. And the one child parents now are wanting grandkids from said one children. Lots of them and fast. China demographics will improve. They also figured shanghai tower and aircraft carriers and their first commercial airplane hull while being busy with ballpens. Shanghai auto expo also showed a lot of new hybrids, all electric domestic brands and models. I think they will be fine.

bigger_cheese 9y ago

I think it's the circle of capitalism. Western manufacturing industry basically said we can't compete on bulk products so we will focus on the specialized 'value add' part of the supply chain and let China produce bulk low margin products. In 10-15 years time there is nothing to say Chinese manufacturing won't capitulate to $Next_Developing_economy in the same manner and surrender their bulk manufacturing dominance in favor of moving up the chain. Edit. I should add the interesting part of all this is Patents - imagine if ball point pen tips were a patented design...

lacampbell 9y ago
I doubt the capability of china to be able to move up the chain. I mean they just figured out ball point pens... it's too little too late. I think china struggles because it's only semi capitalist and still has too many relics of a planned economy.
- yadongwen 9y ago
  Have you read the article? It's not the pen. It's high quality steel. I think most countries probably still cannot do it now. China just successfully flew a big plane a few days ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919) and could automate package delivery like this https://twitter.com/kerotto/status/851055016928460800 https://twitter.com/kerotto/status/851055016928460800 There are many important areas where it has already been the leader of world (high speed trains, consumer software apps, etc)
  - lacampbell 9y ago
    China has built passenger airlines many times before, none of them have ever taken off in international markets. When the C919 is used regularly outside China I'll take note. How is China the leader of the world in high speed trains? They're all based off of designs from Japan and Germany. China is only the leader in consumer software apps inside of China, and only then because it outright bans foreign competition. The fact is China is the worlds most populous country but leads the world in absolutely nothing. And please be clear - this is not a criticism of the Chinese people - of course they have the capacity. But central planning and top down directives will never lead to world beating results.
    - tchaffee 9y ago
      Leads the world in absolutely nothing... #1 manufacturer in the world.
      - myrandomcomment 9y ago
        So? The labor was cheap. And the rules were, shall we say flexible. The US was number one. The rules came, the cost went up and it moved. Look at my other post. One of the startups I worked at moved out of China because of the cost got to high. Its a cycle. As they become more open, more western and more regulated it will change again.
        tchaffee 9y ago
        Parent post claims China leads the world in nothing. Which is clearly wrong. No need to go beyond that.
        myrandomcomment 9y ago
        Reply was to: tchaffee 2 hours ago [-] "Leads the world in absolutely nothing... #1 manufacturer in the world." Which was correct. I think you got it wrong.

gumby 9y ago

"Game over?" People around the world will have cheaper, high quality products. Is that bad? Europe didn't suffer when Lowell stole the loom plans in the 1800s or when they bought a lot of gear from the US following WWII. And don't forget as China grows and labor costs rise there will still be plenty of lower-wage places like Burma, Viet Nam, much of Africa..."game" still in progress. Trade is only zero sum if you have a zero sum mentality. If you have $400 in your pocket and would rather have an iPhone, and Apple has an iPhone and would rather have $400 do you really think that one of you was taken advantage of if you swap? Both are happier.

lacampbell 9y ago
I think you meant to reply to the parent, not me.
- gumby 9y ago
  oops, thanks.

nopinsight 9y ago

The expertise and supply chains for mass scale manufacturing are in China. There are many products that can't be economically manufactured almost anywhere else. They graduate many high quality engineers and researchers and they spend a huge sum on R&D annually (more than many developed nations with/without PPP adjustment). They are addressing labor shortage with robots. China's R&D budget is 2nd in the world (only behind the US and ahead of the EU) when PPP adjusted: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending?wprov=sfla1 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_researc... "In the five-year plan it announced last year, the national government said China would boost its annual production of industrial robots to 100,000 by 2020. At the current rate, the country is on track to exceed that target, assuming the numbers from the statistics bureau can be trusted—not a given in China (the bureau did not respond to questions Quartz sent by email). Meanwhile, over 3,000 industrial robot makers have surfaced in the country in the past five years, according to the China Robot Industry Alliance, a trade group. China is already the world’s largest producer of industrial robots, supplying about 27% of the global market since 2015, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). It’s also the largest buyer of robots. According to the IFR and Bernstein Research, China’s factories spent over $3 billion acquiring industrial robots in 2015." https://qz.com/922742/china-is-rapidly-making-robots-that-will-one-day-manufacture-everything-you-buy/ https://qz.com/922742/china-is-rapidly-making-robots-that-wi...

myrandomcomment 9y ago
There are some companies that are moving out of China because of large increase of cost of manufacturing and a decline in the quality of the talent. A startup I was at started in San Jose for prototypes, China for production for a few years then moved to Penang, Malaysia. It was a very high tech product with a large supply chain. Also, there have been a few stories in the past year on HN discussing the quality of engineers that the Chinese education system is turning out. The contract manufactures in China like Flextronics and Jabil have locations outside of China now and are expanding them. Heck from this map - Jabil has more outside of China: http://www.jabil.com/locations/ http://www.jabil.com/locations/

panzer_wyrm 9y ago

The china presumed missing 200000000 girls killed during the one child policy, seem to be alive and well - they were just hidden from the records IIRC. So china may have more labor than official statistics say. And the one child parents now are wanting grandkids from said one children. Lots of them and fast. China demographics will improve. They also figured shanghai tower and aircraft carriers and their first commercial airplane hull while being busy with ballpens. Shanghai auto expo also showed a lot of new hybrids, all electric domestic brands and models. I think they will be fine.