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Isn't it also important to be able to recognize outliers? If your house burned down a week after you bought it, that doesn't mean you shouldn't rebuild it becau

Isn't it also important to be able to recognize outliers? If your house burned down a week after you bought it, that doesn't mean you shouldn't rebuild it because it's just going to burn down again.

aaron695 10y ago
I'd disagree, I think people who's houses burn down are not going to be close to the normal population. They should rebuild but they probably need to deal with the issues why it happened. Maybe destroyed by a tsunami would be closer to the point, but I think this is a good example of not recognizing what is and isn't an outlier.
- JshWright 10y ago
  A significant number of house fires (though certainly not a majority) are caused by things outside the control of the person living there. Lighting strikes, faulty appliances, etc...
  - marcosdumay 10y ago
    Lighting strikes and faulty appliances shouldn't cause a house to burn down. It's completely unreasonable to bet your safety on every device (made by whoever) inside your house working as intended. Neighboring huge fires and gas leakage are the one thing outside of your control. Everything else should be a non-issue.
    - JshWright 10y ago
      You're suggesting every consumer physically disassemble and inspect every device they purchase (after acquiring sufficient training to do so in a meaningful way)? I'm not at all sure what you expect someone to do about a lightning strike...
      - marcosdumay 10y ago
        Hum, no. I'm suggesting that a home should survive a bad device having problems with minimal damages. And technology for protecting homes against lightning strike is around 200 years old.
        JshWright 10y ago
        Lighting rods do help, but I think you're dramatically underestimating the power and unpredictability of lightning. As far as "minimal damages" go, as long as we're not building our houses (and everything in them) out of material that cannot catch fire, house fires due to faulty appliances will be a fact of life.

Isn't it also important to be able to recognize outliers? If your house burned down a week after you bought it, that doesn't mean you shouldn't rebuild it because it's just going to burn down again.

aaron695 10y ago

I'd disagree, I think people who's houses burn down are not going to be close to the normal population. They should rebuild but they probably need to deal with the issues why it happened. Maybe destroyed by a tsunami would be closer to the point, but I think this is a good example of not recognizing what is and isn't an outlier.

JshWright 10y ago
A significant number of house fires (though certainly not a majority) are caused by things outside the control of the person living there. Lighting strikes, faulty appliances, etc...
- marcosdumay 10y ago
  Lighting strikes and faulty appliances shouldn't cause a house to burn down. It's completely unreasonable to bet your safety on every device (made by whoever) inside your house working as intended. Neighboring huge fires and gas leakage are the one thing outside of your control. Everything else should be a non-issue.
  - JshWright 10y ago
    You're suggesting every consumer physically disassemble and inspect every device they purchase (after acquiring sufficient training to do so in a meaningful way)? I'm not at all sure what you expect someone to do about a lightning strike...
    - marcosdumay 10y ago
      Hum, no. I'm suggesting that a home should survive a bad device having problems with minimal damages. And technology for protecting homes against lightning strike is around 200 years old.
      - JshWright 10y ago
        Lighting rods do help, but I think you're dramatically underestimating the power and unpredictability of lightning. As far as "minimal damages" go, as long as we're not building our houses (and everything in them) out of material that cannot catch fire, house fires due to faulty appliances will be a fact of life.