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Greece has been cooking the books for a long time, even their entrance into the EU was fradulant. Greece is the blame here via its decades of fraud that finally
by drzaiusapelord 9y ago
Greece has been cooking the books for a long time, even their entrance into the EU was fradulant. Greece is the blame here via its decades of fraud that finally caught up with it. As a Greek-American with an interest in Greece being successful I think all the finger pointing at Wall Street or Germany is asinine. Greece is horribly corrupt and tax dodging is like its national sport. Its like someone turned Chicago into a country. All of its out of control spending, unsustainable union perks, and unrealistic pensions finally caught up with it, just like its happening in Chicago right now. The difference is Chicago and Illinois can raise taxes and make appropriate cuts over the long term, but Greece won't unless strong-armed by Germany and others.
Ultimately, a shared currency with nations with such disparate levels of income and corruption just doesn't work out in real life like it does on paper. Arguably, Greece could have restructured its debt and engaged in inflation with its own currency and handled this much better, but that's not an option when you're wed to the Euro. Personally, I like the idea of the EU, but a shared currency is extremely questionable.
Credit ratings are just that, ratings, not investment advice and like all ratings should be understood to be of limited value. A nation state can hide quite a bit from organizations like Moody's and every election changes leadership, so there's no static "Greece." Instead its a handful of parties fighting for power with different agendas and goals and with differing levels of corruption and incompetence with a baseline being pretty bad to begin with. Heck even senior Moody's staff were warning investors about Greece and its dealings with Goldman[1]. You'd have to be a little thick to think that AAA rating meant no-risk. All investment involves risk.
I suspect the larger economies always saw Greece as their 'little brother' and countries like Germany had a sort of "Well, if we give them money, they'll build industry and catch up to us eventually," instead Greece blew it on pensions for people retiring at 50, questionable social programs, and other unsustainable and unwise spending.
I sense a high level of paternalism in general from other Europeans especially when I'm perceived as a native Greek when in Europe. Sadly, I think everyone would be better off if we were rougher with Greece and instead of seeing it as our tourist-friendly 'little brother,' but instead as our dishonest and thieving neighbor. I hope this current crisis has changed perception and paternalist attitudes in Europe and made everyone think about the limitations a shared currency creates.
[1]
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.htm...
In 2008, Goldman helped the bank put the swap into a legal entity called Titlos. But the bank retained the bonds that Titlos issued, according to Dealogic, a financial research firm, for use as collateral to borrow even more from the European Central Bank.
Edward Manchester, a senior vice president at the Moody’s credit rating agency, said the deal would ultimately be a money-loser for Greece because of its long-term payment obligations.
Referring to the Titlos swap with the government of Greece, he said: “This swap is always going to be unprofitable for the Greek government.”
- lotsofpulp 9y agoYes, the constant bailouts are disrupting a necessary mechanism for markets to function, price discovery. Subsidize the losses, privatize the profits, so why bother pricing risk appropriately (which may also include not pricing it at all because it's impossible to predict 10, 20, and 30 years into the future, see pensions). >The difference is Chicago and Illinois can raise taxes and make appropriate cuts over the long term Chicago, Illinois, New Jersey, federal, and most of the other governments will also be defaulting, just not by name because of course you have to prop up the bond markets. What has been happening, and will continue happening, is under investment in infrastructure, education, cuts to promised benefits (which is a default in and of itself), and inflating away a portion of it. Basically a continuous erosion of quality of life to keep the game going.
- tankenmate 9y agoSome medium to large private investors treat ratings reports as signposts nothing more. But a disturbing proportion of investment traders / dealers seem to treat them as a tick box exercise or a "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" CYA instrument. After one week of working on a stockbroking floor I was disabused of almost all the economics I learnt in school.
- andybak 9y ago> I think all the finger pointing at Wall Street or Germany is asinine. 1. They knew what Greece was up to. 2. They facilitated it - or turned a blind eye. 3. They benefited from it. I don't see how it's unreasonable for everyone to share the blame for this. Sadly the cost can't be shared as equally as the blame.
- geezerjay 9y agoSo your big argument that everyone is to blame is that somehow you assume that others might have suspected that Greece did extensively falsified their accounting to hide double-dgit deficits and massive debt? Because I'm pretty sure that greek governments decided all for themselves to pile up even more debt and falsify their records to hide it from the public.