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We've heard this story before. In the West, the line (for years!) was that China's economic growth and foreign trade would _inevitably_ lead to democratization

We've heard this story before. In the West, the line (for years!) was that China's economic growth and foreign trade would _inevitably_ lead to democratization and widespread human rights improvements. That didn't happen -- the Communist party adapted quickly. They learned how to use economic growth as the base of their continued legitimacy, and as a fig leaf for continued political oppression (Internet censorship, jailing human rights activists, intimidating journalists, etc). With China as their mentor, I don't have high hopes for a different scenario unfolding in North Korea.

timthelion 9y ago
But this isn't about freedom or democracy. This is about foreign investment. The wealthy New Yorkers who subscribe to the times care about foreign investment, not freedom or democracy.
- muninn_ 9y ago
  I'm neither wealthy nor a New Yorker and I subscribe... . I care about democracy and freedom too.
- ericd 9y ago
  The NY Times is read across the country, because it's one of the few high quality newspapers left.
- tptacek 9y ago
  The theory here being that the NYT is running a story about the DPRK because they hope to profit off investment in North Korea?
- sdiq 9y ago
  While I have never been to the US and the UK, the NYT and the Guardian are two places I occasionally stumble to, to find out what's going on in the world. Well, you don't have to be a New Yorker to read the NYT, and neither is its focus.
  - petre 9y ago
    No, you just have to be left leaning for those news outlets to grab your attention. I also read them occasionally but pretty much avoid the NYT now or just read through the lines.
aaron-lebo 9y ago
Not quite. http://www.pbs.org/video/2365155890/ http://www.pbs.org/video/2365155890/ "S32 Ep6: Secret State of North Korea" There are some really funny parts where citizens who are doing illegal things berate the officers who are trying to enforce the laws. It seems rather unlike a state with a firm grip on its populace. High rates of growth are impressive but also not hard given how much of a backwater NK was. We'll see if it continues. China succeeded because they liberalized and have a massive populace. NK simply doesn't have that and is isolated from the world community. How long can that growth continue and if it stops, will the locals accept it? Oh, and PBS has lots of good online video content. They're worth supporting.
- astebbin 9y ago
  Thanks for the link, I'm a huge fan of Frontline. I'll give that episode a look!
nostrademons 9y ago
It's worth looking at what led to democracy within what's now the United States of America. Economic growth, foreign trade, and the rise of a powerful merchant & professional class started in the mid-late 1600s. By 1688 it had led to political reforms in England itself, with the Glorious Revolution and recognition that the King was subject to parliament. It took a further 88 years before we got the American Revolution, and over 100 before the Constitution of the U.S. was ratified. Political changes take much longer than economic changes, which take much longer than technological changes. Typically, you need to have a whole generation grow up who believes that their prosperity is due to their own hard work and that of their parents, and that they owe nothing to the existing political regime. We're just barely, within the last 1-2 decades, seeing the economic changes that resulted from China's opening to the West and adoption of modern technology. Maybe by the time our grandchildren are adults, they'll see the political liberalization that goes along with that.
- philipov 9y ago
  What led to the American Revolution was a lack of much governance by Britain of the colonies for generations, which led to the establishment of self-governance. When eventually the King didn't have enough money and needed to levy more taxes on the colonies, the new ruling class revolted. The American Revolution was not a revolution in the sense that France had or that we typically talk about. It was a War of Secession. Comparing it to attempts to overthrow the ruling class in one's own country is not appropriate. It was war to shake off a foreign oppressor from the other side of the world.
  - nostrademons 9y ago
    Sure, but there's nothing stopping the same dynamic from playing out in China (or the current U.S, for that matter). What happens if the economic elites in Shanghai or Shenzhen decide that their interests have diverged from Beijing and that they'd be better off with self-governance? Their economic engines are fueled as much by Western multinational investment as by Beijing, anyway.
    - 9y ago
partycoder 9y ago
This. They have adapted very, very well. For example: - Mass surveillance and censorship. Over the Internet: State regulated search engines, encyclopedias, news, social networks, etc. Baidu, Baike, WeChat... all curated and monitored. - Your credit score can be affected if you don't show alignment with the party. - If you are considered problematic for the party, they can send you to jail, force you into labor, harvest your organs. You name it. There's no press coverage of it. - The People's Liberation Army does not belong to the People's Republic of China, it belongs to the Communist Party of China. Big part of their training is political indoctrination. - China pressures countries to align their vision with theirs. Stay silent about human right violations, Taiwan, Tibet, etc. Even through passive aggressive ways like withdrawing Pandas from your zoo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_diplomacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_diplomacy - All entertainment content is also curated/censored. Hollywood movies need to pass state review if they want to be in the Chinese market.
- carterehsmith 9y ago
  I find this funny. If we compare that to US or UK or whatever... looks quite similar :) > Mass surveliance and censorship? Yes, we got that. > Your credit score can be affected... Yes, your Zipcode tells everything > If you are considered problematic for the party... Yes, we got that. We get people 'suicided' and then we close the files so that they can't be opened for 50 years or whatever. Got that. > China pressures countries to align their vision with theirs. US, UK, France, Italy etc etc do that too > Contents censored Yup. See 'national board of review'
  - refurb 9y ago
    No, we don't "have that as well". If you can't see the difference between censorship in China and US then i don't know what to say.
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      Who needs censorship if you have Cambridge Analytica?
ende 9y ago
> the line (for years!) was that China's economic growth and foreign trade would _inevitably_ lead to democratization and widespread human rights improvements. That didn't happen I don't think you understand what the word inevitably means.
- quirkafleeg 9y ago
  I don't think you understand what you're quoting. https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economic+"inevitably+lead+to"+democratisation https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economic+"inevitably+l...
bpodgursky 9y ago
I think it's a stretch to assume that this translates directly. The Chinese government competently used a combination of crony capitalism and state-run-enterprises to sustain steady economic growth. It's well understood that government policies encouraged and supported the free-ish market. In North Korea, the markets which have sprung up have happened despite the government. If it is increasingly seen as incompetent, that's clear distinction with the situation in China, which was run by fairly ruthless technocrats (since the 90s). It's also quite a stretch to think that the farmer's markets in North Korea could possibly transition into the huge industrial giants which have powered China's economy. I think most of the west would be more-or-less OK with a Chinese-style regime in North Korea -- a competent, responsible, undemocratic politburo more interested in economic growth than pointless military threats (China does not weekly threaten to nuke San Francisco, with 80s-era animated illustrations).
dominotw 9y ago
Chinese are worried that messing with what works could stop the economic growth that they desire more than anything else. If someone can guarantee 100% that ending "Internet censorship, jailing human rights activists, intimidating journalists, etc" wouldn't hurt the economic progress than perhaps they would be on board.
yongjik 9y ago
But it did lead to human rights improvements. As far as I know, many (most?) Chinese people can freely move around and visit other countries. No Chinese scholar was dragged onto streets by government-sponsored teenage thugs in decades. Some of them even criticize the government occasionally, although if you do that too loudly you may still go to prison. So, there was a huge improvement since the days of Cultural Revolution. Just not enough. And if North Korea achieves the same level of human rights that is available in China now, it will be considered a vast success by everybody who cares. Strangely, some people seem to maintain that freedom is either absolute everything or nothing. But you don't have to equate everything as "still non-free" in order to fight for more freedom and justice.
- jaredklewis 9y ago
  Well put. "All or nothing" is poison, and by that standard, Western democracies also fall in the category of "nothing." For the massive human rights gains in China to be so thoughtlessly dismissed is frustrating.
- Aloha 9y ago
  Agreed. If anyone is foolish enough to think china will adopt democracy in the guise of America or Europe is foolish, their culture is so different as so to not even be understandable by most westerners. I'd agree that china is partially democratic and free - insomuch as there are limited methods of redress, and some criticism of the government is allowed, provided you don't attack the foundations of the government.. and every year little by little the Chinese government allows a little more criticisms and adds more methods of redress. They'll make it in my lifetime, but again, it won't look like us in the west.
  - rat87 9y ago
    > If anyone is foolish enough to think china will adopt democracy in the guise of America or Europe is foolish, their culture is so different as so to not even be understandable by most westerners. I think that's wrong and patronizing, everyone is capable of democracy.
stale2002 9y ago
China is significantly better than it used to be. Sure, it has internet censorship. But it is no longer jailing people, in mass, for the "crime" of being a university professor. That's a win in my book.
tuna-piano 9y ago
There is a documented story about a Doctor who defected from North Korea. After crossing the border from North Korea into China, she noticed bowls of rice and food on the ground. At first, she didn't understand why the food was on the ground. Then she realized, "dogs in China ate better than doctors in North Korea."[1] There are many shades of grey on the scale of terrible place to live to amazing place to live. This is not black and white. Today's China (with its many faults) is a much better place to live than North Korea, or the China from 1970. In fact, China's per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power) has risen 7x in the past 25 years![2] I think people in China are happy to have this huge level of economic improvement for now, and will deal with the civil freedoms later. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_to_Envy#Dogs_and_doctors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_to_Envy#Dogs_and_docto... [2]http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp
- astebbin 9y ago
  >I think people in China are happy to have this huge level of economic improvement for now, and will deal with the civil freedoms later. I think you're right about the current attitude of people in China. Unfortunately, as I have experienced in software development, often "later" (e.g. the Jira label "Future") means "never."
nickik 9y ago
I would not be to quick to judge. Usually countries either get stuck in the middle income or they change the government structure. China has a long way to go yet to really be a first world country. Even now I think it's clear that the party is nowhere near as powerful as they were and there are things they don't do anymore. They know that protest could break out if they do the wrong things, they are careful. I don't think it is inevitable but I highly doubt that a country could get to the same GDP per capita as the western democracies without some government reforms.
Gatsky 9y ago
This is true, but at the same time, I think economic growth is the only modality to achieve significant improvements for a populace without a LOT of people dying. If say capitalist rebels tried to take over in China, we would have seen the worst civil war ever.
coolsdude2282 9y ago
Honestly if they could transition to even a China-like level of openness that would be light years of improvement in my opinion. Incremental change that doesn't involve some sort of bloody revolution with lots of loss of life seems like a great option. If they were able to build themselves up to be a functioning country it would probably help in a move toward disarmament, or less war-hawking in the highest positions of government.

timthelion 9y ago

But this isn't about freedom or democracy. This is about foreign investment. The wealthy New Yorkers who subscribe to the times care about foreign investment, not freedom or democracy.

muninn_ 9y ago
I'm neither wealthy nor a New Yorker and I subscribe... . I care about democracy and freedom too.
ericd 9y ago
The NY Times is read across the country, because it's one of the few high quality newspapers left.
tptacek 9y ago
The theory here being that the NYT is running a story about the DPRK because they hope to profit off investment in North Korea?
sdiq 9y ago
While I have never been to the US and the UK, the NYT and the Guardian are two places I occasionally stumble to, to find out what's going on in the world. Well, you don't have to be a New Yorker to read the NYT, and neither is its focus.
- petre 9y ago
  No, you just have to be left leaning for those news outlets to grab your attention. I also read them occasionally but pretty much avoid the NYT now or just read through the lines.

aaron-lebo 9y ago

Not quite. http://www.pbs.org/video/2365155890/ http://www.pbs.org/video/2365155890/ "S32 Ep6: Secret State of North Korea" There are some really funny parts where citizens who are doing illegal things berate the officers who are trying to enforce the laws. It seems rather unlike a state with a firm grip on its populace. High rates of growth are impressive but also not hard given how much of a backwater NK was. We'll see if it continues. China succeeded because they liberalized and have a massive populace. NK simply doesn't have that and is isolated from the world community. How long can that growth continue and if it stops, will the locals accept it? Oh, and PBS has lots of good online video content. They're worth supporting.

astebbin 9y ago
Thanks for the link, I'm a huge fan of Frontline. I'll give that episode a look!

nostrademons 9y ago

It's worth looking at what led to democracy within what's now the United States of America. Economic growth, foreign trade, and the rise of a powerful merchant & professional class started in the mid-late 1600s. By 1688 it had led to political reforms in England itself, with the Glorious Revolution and recognition that the King was subject to parliament. It took a further 88 years before we got the American Revolution, and over 100 before the Constitution of the U.S. was ratified. Political changes take much longer than economic changes, which take much longer than technological changes. Typically, you need to have a whole generation grow up who believes that their prosperity is due to their own hard work and that of their parents, and that they owe nothing to the existing political regime. We're just barely, within the last 1-2 decades, seeing the economic changes that resulted from China's opening to the West and adoption of modern technology. Maybe by the time our grandchildren are adults, they'll see the political liberalization that goes along with that.

philipov 9y ago
What led to the American Revolution was a lack of much governance by Britain of the colonies for generations, which led to the establishment of self-governance. When eventually the King didn't have enough money and needed to levy more taxes on the colonies, the new ruling class revolted. The American Revolution was not a revolution in the sense that France had or that we typically talk about. It was a War of Secession. Comparing it to attempts to overthrow the ruling class in one's own country is not appropriate. It was war to shake off a foreign oppressor from the other side of the world.
- nostrademons 9y ago
  Sure, but there's nothing stopping the same dynamic from playing out in China (or the current U.S, for that matter). What happens if the economic elites in Shanghai or Shenzhen decide that their interests have diverged from Beijing and that they'd be better off with self-governance? Their economic engines are fueled as much by Western multinational investment as by Beijing, anyway.
  - 9y ago

partycoder 9y ago

This. They have adapted very, very well. For example: - Mass surveillance and censorship. Over the Internet: State regulated search engines, encyclopedias, news, social networks, etc. Baidu, Baike, WeChat... all curated and monitored. - Your credit score can be affected if you don't show alignment with the party. - If you are considered problematic for the party, they can send you to jail, force you into labor, harvest your organs. You name it. There's no press coverage of it. - The People's Liberation Army does not belong to the People's Republic of China, it belongs to the Communist Party of China. Big part of their training is political indoctrination. - China pressures countries to align their vision with theirs. Stay silent about human right violations, Taiwan, Tibet, etc. Even through passive aggressive ways like withdrawing Pandas from your zoo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_diplomacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_diplomacy - All entertainment content is also curated/censored. Hollywood movies need to pass state review if they want to be in the Chinese market.

carterehsmith 9y ago
I find this funny. If we compare that to US or UK or whatever... looks quite similar :) > Mass surveliance and censorship? Yes, we got that. > Your credit score can be affected... Yes, your Zipcode tells everything > If you are considered problematic for the party... Yes, we got that. We get people 'suicided' and then we close the files so that they can't be opened for 50 years or whatever. Got that. > China pressures countries to align their vision with theirs. US, UK, France, Italy etc etc do that too > Contents censored Yup. See 'national board of review'
- refurb 9y ago
  No, we don't "have that as well". If you can't see the difference between censorship in China and US then i don't know what to say.
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    Who needs censorship if you have Cambridge Analytica?

ende 9y ago

> the line (for years!) was that China's economic growth and foreign trade would _inevitably_ lead to democratization and widespread human rights improvements. That didn't happen I don't think you understand what the word inevitably means.

quirkafleeg 9y ago
I don't think you understand what you're quoting. https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economic+"inevitably+lead+to"+democratisation https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economic+"inevitably+l...

bpodgursky 9y ago

I think it's a stretch to assume that this translates directly. The Chinese government competently used a combination of crony capitalism and state-run-enterprises to sustain steady economic growth. It's well understood that government policies encouraged and supported the free-ish market. In North Korea, the markets which have sprung up have happened despite the government. If it is increasingly seen as incompetent, that's clear distinction with the situation in China, which was run by fairly ruthless technocrats (since the 90s). It's also quite a stretch to think that the farmer's markets in North Korea could possibly transition into the huge industrial giants which have powered China's economy. I think most of the west would be more-or-less OK with a Chinese-style regime in North Korea -- a competent, responsible, undemocratic politburo more interested in economic growth than pointless military threats (China does not weekly threaten to nuke San Francisco, with 80s-era animated illustrations).

dominotw 9y ago

Chinese are worried that messing with what works could stop the economic growth that they desire more than anything else. If someone can guarantee 100% that ending "Internet censorship, jailing human rights activists, intimidating journalists, etc" wouldn't hurt the economic progress than perhaps they would be on board.

yongjik 9y ago

But it did lead to human rights improvements. As far as I know, many (most?) Chinese people can freely move around and visit other countries. No Chinese scholar was dragged onto streets by government-sponsored teenage thugs in decades. Some of them even criticize the government occasionally, although if you do that too loudly you may still go to prison. So, there was a huge improvement since the days of Cultural Revolution. Just not enough. And if North Korea achieves the same level of human rights that is available in China now, it will be considered a vast success by everybody who cares. Strangely, some people seem to maintain that freedom is either absolute everything or nothing. But you don't have to equate everything as "still non-free" in order to fight for more freedom and justice.

jaredklewis 9y ago
Well put. "All or nothing" is poison, and by that standard, Western democracies also fall in the category of "nothing." For the massive human rights gains in China to be so thoughtlessly dismissed is frustrating.
Aloha 9y ago
Agreed. If anyone is foolish enough to think china will adopt democracy in the guise of America or Europe is foolish, their culture is so different as so to not even be understandable by most westerners. I'd agree that china is partially democratic and free - insomuch as there are limited methods of redress, and some criticism of the government is allowed, provided you don't attack the foundations of the government.. and every year little by little the Chinese government allows a little more criticisms and adds more methods of redress. They'll make it in my lifetime, but again, it won't look like us in the west.
- rat87 9y ago
  > If anyone is foolish enough to think china will adopt democracy in the guise of America or Europe is foolish, their culture is so different as so to not even be understandable by most westerners. I think that's wrong and patronizing, everyone is capable of democracy.

stale2002 9y ago

China is significantly better than it used to be. Sure, it has internet censorship. But it is no longer jailing people, in mass, for the "crime" of being a university professor. That's a win in my book.

tuna-piano 9y ago

There is a documented story about a Doctor who defected from North Korea. After crossing the border from North Korea into China, she noticed bowls of rice and food on the ground. At first, she didn't understand why the food was on the ground. Then she realized, "dogs in China ate better than doctors in North Korea."[1] There are many shades of grey on the scale of terrible place to live to amazing place to live. This is not black and white. Today's China (with its many faults) is a much better place to live than North Korea, or the China from 1970. In fact, China's per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power) has risen 7x in the past 25 years![2] I think people in China are happy to have this huge level of economic improvement for now, and will deal with the civil freedoms later. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_to_Envy#Dogs_and_doctors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_to_Envy#Dogs_and_docto... [2]http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp

astebbin 9y ago
>I think people in China are happy to have this huge level of economic improvement for now, and will deal with the civil freedoms later. I think you're right about the current attitude of people in China. Unfortunately, as I have experienced in software development, often "later" (e.g. the Jira label "Future") means "never."

nickik 9y ago

I would not be to quick to judge. Usually countries either get stuck in the middle income or they change the government structure. China has a long way to go yet to really be a first world country. Even now I think it's clear that the party is nowhere near as powerful as they were and there are things they don't do anymore. They know that protest could break out if they do the wrong things, they are careful. I don't think it is inevitable but I highly doubt that a country could get to the same GDP per capita as the western democracies without some government reforms.

Gatsky 9y ago

This is true, but at the same time, I think economic growth is the only modality to achieve significant improvements for a populace without a LOT of people dying. If say capitalist rebels tried to take over in China, we would have seen the worst civil war ever.

coolsdude2282 9y ago

Honestly if they could transition to even a China-like level of openness that would be light years of improvement in my opinion. Incremental change that doesn't involve some sort of bloody revolution with lots of loss of life seems like a great option. If they were able to build themselves up to be a functioning country it would probably help in a move toward disarmament, or less war-hawking in the highest positions of government.